Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: Predictions, picks for Western Conference semifinal series

Sean Deveney

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: Predictions, picks for Western Conference semifinal series image

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: The backstory

The Nuggets put an exclamation point on an already remarkable season by surviving a seven-game slugfest against the more experienced Spurs, moving on to face the Trail Blazers, who surprisingly dominated the Thunder in the first round. This is a series few would have expected when the season began, with Portland coming off last year’s humbling sweep at the hands of the Pelicans and the Nuggets having not made the playoffs since 2013.

Portland’s five-game series win over the Thunder was even more surprising because of the absence of center Jusuf Nurkic, lost to a leg injury in March. The Blazers had put more offensive emphasis on Nurkic during the regular season, hoping that taking the offensive load off the backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum would make the team tougher to defend in the postseason.

But Lillard and McCollum combined to take 43.2 shots per game in the first round, scoring 57.4 points. As much as Portland wanted to alleviate the burden on those guys, the Trail Blazers don’t have much choice but to funnel the offense through them.

If the regular season is any indication, expect a high-scoring and tight series. Denver won three of four from Portland, but two of the games were one-possession wins and a total of six points separated the teams over the four meetings.

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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: The key player

In the one game that Denver lost to Portland, star center Nikola Jokic did not play. In the three games he did play, Jokic averaged 25.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists, shooting 62.0 percent from the field.

Without Nurkic, that matchup becomes more of a nightmare for the Blazers, who will count on the defensively challenged Enes Kanter to try to hold Jokic down. Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts will have to be creative in finding ways to help Kanter in this one.

nikola-jokic-evan-turner-getty-042719-ftr.jpg

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: The big number

18.8. Neither of these teams gets much from its bench, but the Portland reserves have been especially ineffective, averaging just 18.8 points on 37.6 percent shooting and 31.3 percent from the 3-point line. That’s the worst production of any team in the playoffs.

Portland bolstered its bench by landing Rodney Hood from Cleveland at the trade deadline, and Hood chipped in 9.6 points in 27 games. But he has been awful in the playoffs, averaging 3.2 points on 27.3 percent shooting. With a possible four games in the Denver altitude, the Blazers will need more from the bench.

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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: Xs and Os

Lillard and McCollum are two of the better pick-and-roll guards in the league, and Portland will lean heavily on that play in this series.

Lillard ran the pick-and-roll on 12.4 possessions per game in the first round, 40.3 percent of his total possessions. He scored 1.11 points per possession on the play, making him the most efficient pick-and-roll player in the playoffs for those who average 6.0 or more possessions. McCollum is third on that list, averaging 1.06 points per possession on 10.0 possessions per game.

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: The prediction

The Nuggets’ dream season continues. This is just not a good matchup for the Trail Blazers, and the home-court edge will probably be a factor for Denver, which had the best regular-season mark at home (34-7).

Nuggets over Trail Blazers, 4-3

Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: Schedule, times, TV channels

Date Matchup Time (TV channel)
April 29 Game 1 at Denver 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT/fuboTV)
May 1 Game 2 at Denver 9 p.m. ET (TNT/fuboTV)
May 3 Game 3 at Portland 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
May 5 Game 4 at Portland 7 p.m. ET (TNT/fuboTV)
*May 7 Game 5 at Denver TBD (TNT/fuboTV)
*May 9 Game 6 at Portland TBD (ESPN)
*May 12 Game 7 at Denver TBD

(*if necessary)

Sean Deveney

Sean Deveney is the national NBA writer for Sporting News and author of four books, including Facing Michael Jordan. He has been with Sporting News since his internship in 1997.