Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gilbert Burns odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada’s most trusted sportsbook.
At UFC 273 on April 9, two major titles will be on the line. Outside of the bantamweight and featherweight division, however, the welterweights will be spotlighted. A young fighter has taken the MMA world by storm, and he will look to continue his path of destruction against a veteran of the sport.
Inside the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida, Khamzat Chimaev faces Gilbert Burns. The Sporting News, with the help of Sports Interaction, looks into a bout that could have major implications when it comes to the welterweight rankings.
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Fighter overview
A three-time freestyle wrestling gold medalist (starting when he was five), Chimaev won bronze in the Russian National Championships. Chimaev made his MMA debut in 2018. Competing for Brave CF, Chimaev joined the UFC in 2020.
Right out of the gate, Chimaev made an impact. He submitted John Phillips in July 2020 and took out Rhys McKee via TKO just a few weeks later. In September, he returned to action against Gerald Meerschaert. He knocked him out in 17 seconds, an impressive feat considering Meerschaert was a step up in competition.
In December 2020, Chimaev tested positive for COVID-19 and suffered lingering symptoms not long after that, resulting in multiple stays at the hospital. At one point, he was considering retiring. He returned to action instead, fighting at UFC 267 in October. Chimaev beat Li Jingliang via submission.
Chimaev credits his skills to his work in Stockholm, training three to four times a day. There were times when he would lie in a storage closet with no windows and hit the heavy bag.
"When you're alone for four or five months [in this room], it makes your mind say crazy things," Chimaev told ESPN. "If you are alone every night and don't see somebody, nobody helps you, nobody knows you. It's like -- you feel like you're going to get [what you're working for], but nobody believes in you. And I didn't need that, because I was believing in myself. But it was hard. Really hard."
Sitting second in the UFC's welterweight rankings, Burns is a two-time silver and one-time gold medalist in the World Jiu-Jitsu Championships. Making his MMA debut in 2012, Burns joined the UFC in 2014. He is 13-4 with the promotion and has beaten the likes of Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley.
Facing Kamaru Usman for the UFC welterweight title in February 2021, Burns lost via TKO. He rebounded with a win over Stephen Thompson in July 2021.
How the fight is leaning
Per Sports Interaction, Chimaev is the massive favorite at -505, while Burns is the +340 underdog. Given the nature of how Chimaev fights end, the bout is favored not to go the distance at -266.
Chimaev via knockout is favored at -125 with a submission win at +220. The best bet for Burns to win is via decision (+800), with winning via some form of knockout (+900) not far behind.
Over the years, Burns has been the underdog against fighters like Thompson, Aleksei Kunchenko, Mike Davis, and Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Each time, however, he defied the odds and earned a win.
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Who has the edge?
While the sample size of Chimaev in the octagon is small, he has already broken the way we look at stats. He has landed 8.68 significant strikes per minute. Burns lands 3.12 per minute. In four UFC fights, Chimaev has landed 112 strikes while Burns has landed 170. Against Demian Maia in 2020, it only took 13 punches to give Burns the win.
Chimaev has a 77% strike accuracy mark and has taken less damage (.08) compared to Burns (2.90). Against Usman, Burns was jabbed to death, which affected his ability to find any advantage. He has since been training with Usman to take on Chimaev.
"Usman came a couple of days to help out," Burns told TMZ Sports, "He was helping me a couple of times, not training with me but kinda coaching. Very high IQ and very good advice. Was good to have him around."
On the ground could end up being a factor. Burns averages 2.16 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has landed 15 in his last eight fights. Chimaev has landed four takedowns in his first four UFC fights and has two submission wins. Burns’ overall ability has helped him become a threat in the division for years.
Not discrediting Chimaev, Burns believes the odds do not tell the whole story.
"I think [Khamzat's] very tough, I think he's very good, but let's be honest, he's never seen on one on my caliber, grappling wise, jiu-jitsu, striking, speed, in a lot of actual experience,” Burns told TMZ Sports. “I've been there many times in the UFC title fights, many events. I think I have a lot of experience but I see that guy very, very tough -- very, very dangerous. I'll take him very seriously.”
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"I think my arms raising. I don't know how, maybe a submission, maybe a knockout but I don't see a decision. I see a knockout or a submission. Second-round or third-round finish.”
It is not hard to think that Chimaev is destined to become the next contender for the UFC welterweight title. At 27, his future looks brighter than ever. Is the 35-year-old Burns being overlooked, however? If Chimaev can come guns blazing right out of the gate, it could be a quick night. Burns’ hunger and overall skills should not be denied.
This is not a walk in the park for Chimaev, and Burns will look to prove that at UFC 273. Like UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, The Sporting News predicts Burns will get the win over Chimaev. Burns is patient and experienced enough to strike when the moment is right. One major mistake can make a difference in this fight. With a lot on the line for Chimaev, the pressure is on.
