For the first time in a decade, the Houston Astros have their backs against the wall. How will they respond?
In 2024, the Astros failed to advance to the American League Championship Series for the first time since 2016. With much of the core of their two World Series teams either aging or approaching free agency, it's tough to say how much longer Houston's window will remain open.
The first of those free agents is third baseman Alex Bregman, who could be headed elsewhere any day now. The Astros have professed their desire to reunite with Bregman, but the two-time All-Star is seeking at least $200 million, and Houston's payroll may have climbed too high to afford that.
With Bregman's impending departure in mind, perhaps the Astros could pull off an unexpected trade to land a new third baseman.
St. Louis Cardinals superstar Nolan Arenado is widely speculated to be available as the Cardinals look to rebuild. Matt Snyder of CBS Sports recently named Houston as a potential trade destination for the 33-year-old eight-time All-Star.
"The Astros immediately come to mind because Arenado is a pull-heavy hitter... and the Crawford Boxes in Houston could help resurrect his slugging. Arenado will want to join a contender and there aren't many teams listed as obvious contenders in the way the Astros are, given that they haven't missed the playoffs since 2016," Snyder said.
"There could be an opening at third base if Alex Bregman walks in free agency, but the Astros could also take Arenado up on his offer to move to first base and try to fit both in their payroll."
In 2024, Arenado didn't measure up to his usual career standards. His .719 OPS was the lowest in a single season since his rookie season in 2013. But he was also playing on a sad-sack Cardinals team in a brutal hitter's park, so there's optimism a move to Houston could rejuvenate him.
Arenado wouldn't necessarily be cheaper than Bregman, but he'd represent a shorter-term commitment. His contract expires at the end of 2027, though there's also $38 million in additional deferred money running through 2041.
If the Cardinals are willing to eat some salary, or accept a minimal prospect return in exchange for getting Arenado off their books, his career could find new life in Houston. And swapping Bregman for Arenado might well help the Astros keep more of their core together in future years.
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