Kentucky Derby horses 2019: Top contenders in field, betting odds, predictions

Thomas Schlarp

Kentucky Derby horses 2019: Top contenders in field, betting odds, predictions image

Dust off those eye-popping hats, search the recipe for mint juleps and prepare for the "most exciting two minutes in sports" because it's time for the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Justify ran away with last year's Derby title en route to the 13th Triple Crown in thoroughbred racing history and second in the last four years.

This year's Run for the Roses is poised to be just as exciting with a full field of 20 horses and likely another sloppy track with the possibility of rain forecasted for the weekend. Bob Baffert returns with three horses — Roadster, Game Winner and Improbable — looking to win his sixth Kentucky Derby as a trainer after a successful 2018 with Justify.

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The annual event now draws up to 160,000 fans to Churchill Downs, a far cry from the 10,000 spectators in attendance at the first race in 1875 when Aristides won. The Kentucky Derby has been held at the same venue since that year, making it the nation's longest continuously held sports event. 

The Kentucky Derby has been virtually free of any longshot Cinderella stories in recent memory, as each of the last six betting favorites have gone on to win the race. Last year, a total of $225.7 million was wagered on the horses around the nation with the winning horse receiving a prize of $2 million. 

Here's everything to know about the 2019 Kentucky Derby field of horses, top contenders and updated betting odds.

MORE: Fast facts before you pick a horse in the 2019 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby horses: Full 2019 field, entry list

Twenty horses will run this year after a lengthy qualifying process known as "The Road to the Kentucky Derby." Implemented in 2012, it involves a points system based on finishes in certain races in the year leading up to the Derby. The more races a horse wins against more competitive fields, the more points a horse gets, increasing its chances at making the Kentucky Derby. 

Horse Trainer Jockey
Omaha Beach Richard Mandella Mike Smith
Roadster Bob Baffert Florent Geroux
Game Winner Bob Baffert Joel Rosario
Improbable Bob Baffert Irad Ortiz Jr.
Tacitus William Mott Jose Ortiz
Maximum Security Jason Servis Luis Saez
Code of Honor Claude R. McGaughey III John Velasquez
War of Will Mark E. Casse Tyler Gaffalione
Vekoma George Weaver Javier Castellano
Cutting Humor Todd Pletcher TBD
By My Standards W. Bret Calhoun Gabriel Saez
Tax Danny Gargan Junior Alvarado
Win Win Win Michael J. Trombetta Julian Pimentel
Haikal Kiaran P. McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh
Spinoff Todd Pletcher Manny Franco
Country House William Mott Flavien Prat
Long Range Toddy Steven Asmussen Jon Court
Plus Que Parfait Brendan Walsh Ricardo Santana Jr.
Gray Magician Peter Miller TBD
Master Fencer Tsunoda K Julien Leparoux

Kentucky Derby contenders: Who's the favorite to win in 2019?

Omaha Beach has jumped out to be the early favorite following two strong spring showings leading up to Saturday with a win over a stacked field at the Arkansas Derby and a victory at the Rebel Stakes. In doing so, he beat two of Bob Baffert's Derby horses in Improbable and Game Winner. Mike Smith, who is arguably the world's best jockey and rode Justify to the Triple Crown, chose to ride Omaha Beach over Baffert's other horse, Roadster, only adding to his status as favorite.

Roadster will likely give Omaha Beach his stiffest competition. This time last year, Baffert said that Roadster was the best 2-year-old in his barn, and his two wins in two starts this year at Santa Anita have proved Baffert may have been right. Roadster has just one career loss, but surgery to fix a breathing issue discovered after the loss may have corrected the problem.

Tacitus enters the Kentucky Derby with the most qualifying points after a pair of wins at the Wood at Aqueduct and the Tampa Bay Derby in Florida. Jockey Jose Ortiz chose to ride him over Improbable and he has a Hall of Fame trainer in Bill Mott to bolster his hopes of victory.

MORE: A quick guide to betting on horse racing

Kentucky Derby odds, betting lines

Betting and the Kentucky Derby go hand in hand. Last year a reported $225.7 million was wagered on the races throughout the day at Churchill Downs, up eight percent from 2017. 

Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill Downs Incorporated, said he expects to see that number grow by close to $13 million this year with the increase in legalized gambling. Mobile wagering soared up 15 percent from 2017 to a total of $39.2 million.

(Morning line odds as of May 4, per KentuckyDerby.com)

Horse (Post pos.) Odds Line
Omaha Beach (scratched)
Roadster (17) 10/1 +700
Improbable (5) 5/1 +600
Game Winner (16) 6/1 +600
Tacitus (8) 5/1 +900
Maximum Security (7) 9/2 +900
Code of Honor (13) 12/1 +800
Win Win Win (14) 15/1 +1800
War of Will (1) 17/1 +1600
Vekoma (6) 22/1 +1400
By My Standards (3) 16/1 +1600
Tax (2) 37/1 +1800
Cutting Humor (10) 24/1 +2800
Haikal (scratched)
Spinoff (19) 51/1 +3300
Country House (20) 64/1 +3300
Long Range Toddy (18) 48/1 +3300
Plus Que Parfait (9) 54/1 +3300
Gray Magician (4) 31/1 +5000
Master Fencer (15) 51/1 +5000
Bodexpress (20) 99/1 +2500

2019 Kentucky Derby predictions

While it's truly impossible to predict a winner, there are a few random factoids to be award of when trying to do so. The betting favorite has won the last six Kentucky Derbys, which can either be a good reason or bad reason to pick that horse. California-based horses have won four of the last five Derbys, which favors Omaha Beach, Roadster, Game Winner, Improbable and Gray Magician. Six straight winners were undefeated during their races as a 3-year-old — welcome news for Tacitus, Maximum Security and Roadster.

On the negative side of things, no horse coming straight from a race in Dubai or any horse from Japan has ever won, which would eliminate Plus Que Parfait, Gray Magician and Master Fencer. Additionally, geldings are just 6-for-115 since 1908, thus not a good sign for Tax at this year's race.

Do what you will with these historical tidbits when pick your favorite.

Below is SN writer Vinnie Iyer's projected order of finish at the 2019 Kentucky Derby:

Win: Maximum Security
Place: Improbable
Show: Game Winner

Maximum Security was helped by the draw and will be further helped by his experience to start the race strong, and benefits from no Omaha Beach, which was built to pull away from a crowd down the stretch. Luis Saez, who has finished no better than 7th in six previous Kentucky Derby rides, will take advantage of a talent horse out of the gate to hold off challenges at at the end.

Without Omaha Beach, Baffert is bound to get two of his trio in the top three. Improbable is best positioned to do so, as Game Winner and Roadster will battle on the outside with one likely fading and other still looking at a top-five finish.

Thomas Schlarp