We waited more than 100 years for this. Well, most of us weren’t here for the entire century, but all of us who’ve followed college football endured the poll championships, conference bowl affiliations, and fabricated playoffs our entire lives. Until now.
In the 2024 season, we at last have a 12-team playoff in which every college in the no-longer-aptly-named Football Bowl Subdivision knows what it must accomplish to qualify. Win one one of the four major conferences, you’re in. Dominate one of the leagues below that tier, you have a genuine chance.
This new system has created the most compelling college football season possibly ever. Vanderbilt beat Alabama. Kentucky nearly beat Georgia. Miami is rejuvenated. Indiana is good. Ohio State and Oregon will stage a massive showdown Saturday night. November is nearing, and dozens of teams still can be optimistic about competing for a spot in the championship tournament.
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Now, there’s a chance someone’s going to mess with this.
Administrators from the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference will conclude their meetings Thursday in Nashville. They will have discussed much about the future of college football, and they could develop a variety of plans by the time they’re done talking.
One item that definitely will be considered, though, is an expansion in the number of automatic bids each conference will receive to what is expected to be an expanded College Football Playoff at some point in the future.
The CFP is likely to widen to 14 teams, and one possibility is to ensure both the SEC and Big Ten are guaranteed four spots each in the field. It’s an idea without merit, without necessity, and it will undermine the value of the tournament before it even has a chance to catch on. This would turn the playoff into an awkward hybrid of a championship tournament and bowl affiliation system.
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There's no championship in any sport that assures tournament entry based on secondary achievement in a particular league or conference. The AFC North doesn't get 2 guaranteed spots in the NFL Playoffs because of its rugged annual competition. The division winner is in, along with any other participants with a qualifying record.
Understand, the Big Ten and SEC don’t need these assurances in order to fill the majority of the bracket. The leagues’ collective and individual brand value and the substantial recruiting power of their best programs assured in recent years that the greatest amount of talent — playing and coaching — flowed in their direction. And the results that one would expect did, as well.
Using the CFP committee’s final rankings as a guide — and accounting for those schools that since have joined the two conferences — the SEC would have averaged 3.8 playoff entrants over the past decade, and the Big Ten would have gotten 3.9. They’re getting four bids, anyway, without gerrymandering the selection process, even without adding two more teams to the field.
In fact, seeking this sort of needless assurance might restrict the number of bids they earn. If they demand and receive four auto bids each, might the committee be less inclined to provide an extra one when it appears to be warranted? The SEC would have earned five bids in four of the CFP’s first 10 seasons; the Big Ten would have gotten five three times and six in another. They don’t need a boost. They just need 60 minutes and a football.
When a business is confronting the degree of change presently being forced upon college athletics by state legislatures and the courts, there is going to be fear. Call it "concern" if that’s less pejorative, but the apparatus supported by college football isn’t seeking just a better idea. It’s in need of plans to make athletic departments sustainable now that a substantial portion of revenue generated will be shared, for the first time, with athletes.
This concern is not limited to those athletic programs already fighting for income and relevance. It exists among the colleges with the greatest resources, as well. Those in the SEC and Big Ten gained substantial increases in broadcast rights payments as they expanded to add successful programs and significant markets, but the impact of the House settlement has them wondering about the future, also.
The power of the SEC and Big Ten can be seen in their omnipresence on major networks every weekend. This Saturday alone, there will be 11 nationally televised games, including six on legacy broadcast networks and four on the networks founded to present their conference’s athletic events. If we allow 3.5 hours for each game — and we all know that can run longer — that’s nearly 40 hours of college football, and we’re not even counting the non-league game Missouri will play against UMass.
The exact payments to each member school from these deals with ESPN/ABC (in the case of the SEC) and Fox, CBS, and NBC (the Big Ten) might be difficult to ascertain until some of the state universities in these affiliations are required to make them public. It’s a lot, though. For the Big Ten members receiving full shares, it’s at least $80 million. The SEC is expected to reside in the same neighborhood.
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When college football expert Ralph Russo was working for the Associated Press, he reported in June that the Big Ten and SEC already have assured they’ll receive nearly 60 percent of the annual payout from a new CFP broadcast deal.
They have what matters most to their institutions in this situation: the money. If they want to increase their shares by a smidge, who’s going to stop them?
To those who follow the sport, though, the sanctity of the competition is going to have a greater impact. The SEC and Big Ten should be getting three or four bids on an annual basis as the expanded CFB matures. They should be earning those opportunities, though.
And they will, if given the chance.
