Alabama is out of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Imagine predicting that after the Crimson Tide beat Georgia 41-34 on Sept. 28. It would have seemed absurd at the time. Yet the Crimson Tide suffered a 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt the following week. Then, Alabama escaped in a 27-25 victory against South Carolina. A victory against Tennessee would have erased creeping doubts about first-year Kalen DeBoer.
Then, Tennessee beat Alabama 24-17 behind a strong running game and 10 fourth-quarter points. Now, at least in our College Football Playoff projections heading into Week 9 – the Crimson Tide are out. Is Alabama really cooked?
RESETTING THE SEC: Georgia topples No. 1 Texas, Bama falls to Tennessee
Well, not yet. Alabama likely is out of the SEC championship game for the second time in three seasons. That does not mean the Crimson Tide cannot get back in to the CFP race. It just will require winning out against a schedule that will include ranked Missouri and LSU teams before a three-game stretch against Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn to close the season. The Crimson Tide clearly cannot look past Missouri, but the matchup with LSU at Death Valley on Nov. 9 will be that moment.
Alabama was effectively eliminated from the four-team playoff in 2022 after a 32-31 overtime loss at Tiger Stadium. That is the moment to watch – the path to redemption for DeBoer.
Each week, Sporting News breaks down the 12-team College Football Playoff, with first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. Here is how that looks heading into Week 9:
Moved in: Tennessee
Dropped out: Alabama
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Oregon (7-0, Big Ten champion)
Oregon beat the two time-zone theory with a 35-0 victory against Purdue on Friday. Dillon Gabriel (21 of 25, 290 yards, 2 TDs, INT) now has a 77% completion percentage – which would be the third highest single-season total of all time and matches former Oregon QB Bo Nix from last season. Oregon controls its destiny in the Big Ten and can keep the momentum rolling against Illinois in Week 9.
No. 2 Georgia (6-1, SEC champion)
Georgia is the pick to win the SEC after a 30-15 victory against Texas. The Bulldogs have victories against two top-10 teams – the Week 1 victory against Clemson is looking better with each week – and the loss to Alabama does not hurt as much. That gave Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart his 100th victory. The Bulldogs took the underdog card and cashed it against the Longhorns, which sets up a well-timed bye week before rivalry matchups against Florida, Tennessee and Georgia Tech in November.
No. 3 Miami (7-0, ACC champion)
Miami's wild ride continued in a 52-45 victory against Louisville. Cam Ward passed for 319 yards and four TDs – and the Hurricanes racked up 538 total yards against the Cardinals. That is three straight one-score victories in ACC play – and yet another controversial call overturned a Ward fumble. Clemson continues to string together victories. A collision course between those teams appears in the works and could squeeze two ACC teams into the CFP. The Hurricanes face Florida State in Week 9.
No. 4 Iowa State (7-0, Big 12 champion)
The Cyclones erased a 14-point second-half deficit against UCF in Week 8. Rocco Becht scored on a 1-yard run with 30 seconds remaining, and Iowa State beat the Knights 38-35 in a Big 12 thriller. That was the same score as BYU’s victory against Oklahoma State on Friday. Iowa State rolled up 530 yards of offense in the come-back win. The Cyclones have a bye week before a tricky matchup against Texas Tech, but that is one of three home games in the last five weeks.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 9 of the college football season:
No. 12 Boise State (5-1, Mountain West champion) at No. 5 Penn State (6-0, Big Ten at-large)
The Broncos and Nittany Lions each had bye weeks to prepare for the second half of their respective seasons. Penn State ranks 10th in the FBS in scoring defense (14.5 ppg.) under new defensive coordinator Tom Allen. How would that unit fare against Heisman front-runner Ashton Jeanty (1,248 yards, 17 TDs) – who had an extra week to recover from a 31-carry performance against Hawaii in Week 7? The Broncos have a huge Mountain West Conference test at UNLV on Friday. (Winner plays No. 4 Iowa State).
No. 11 BYU (7-0, Big 12) at No. 6 Texas (6-1, SEC at-large)
The Longhorns might stick in the top-five in the AP Poll after the loss to Georgia, but they drop to this spot. Texas still has outscored opponents 274-68, but Steve Sarkisian might have at least the hint of a quarterback controversy with Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. The Longhorns travel to Vanderbilt in Week 9. The Cougars escaped with a 38-35 victory against Oklahoma State after a 35-yard TD pass from Jake Retzlaff to Darius Lassister in the final minute. That is good enough for the last Power 4 at-large bid, but this is a tenuous hold heading into Week 9 at UCF. (Winner plays No. 3 Miami).
No. 10 LSU (6-1, SEC at-large) at No. 7 Ohio State (5-1, Big Ten at-large)
These teams have met in The Shoe one time – a 36-33 victory by the Buckeyes on Sept. 24, 1988. The Buckeyes had a bye week to recover after a 32-31 loss at Oregon, and there is enough All-American talent on the roster to make a run at a Big Ten championship. LSU beat Arkansas 34-10 and remains unbeaten in conference play. The idea of this new format was to get SEC teams up in Big Ten country in winter time. This is that game. (Winner plays No. 2 Georgia)
No. 9 Tennessee (6-1, SEC at-large) at No. 8 Clemson (6-1, ACC at-large)
The Vols are back in after beating Alabama, but they aren't quite in position to get a home game yet. Running back Dylan Sampson rushed for 139 yards and a TD, and a defense that has allowed 11.5 points per game came up with the final stop. Clemson beat Virginia 48-31, and Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik (23 of 35, 308 yards, 3 TDs, INT) has put up back-to-back 300-yard games. This would be a fun matchup at Death Valley. (Winner plays No. 1 Oregon)
MORE: Sporting News Midseason All-America team
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Notre Dame (6-1, Independent)
The Irish continue to cruise after a 31-13 victory against Georgia Tech. Riley Leonard (20 of 29, 203 yards, INT) was solid, but the defense was the story against the Yellow Jackets, who managed just 64 rushing yards on 2.2 yards per carry. Georgia Tech was just 4 of 14 on third down and ND had a late pick-six. Notre Dame takes on unbeaten Navy in Week 9 – which would be another victory against a ranked team for Marcus Freeman.
Indiana (7-0, Big Ten)
The Hoosiers showed they are a serious contender in the Big Ten after a 56-7 victory against Nebraska. Kurtis Rourke (17 of 21, 189, TD, INT) left in the first half with a hand injury, but Indiana had a three-TD lead at that point. Indiana took advantage of four turnovers, and they are the fourth highest-ranked team in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are at home against Washington in Week 9.
Texas A&M (6-1, SEC)
The Aggies remain unbeaten SEC play after a 34-24 victory against Mississippi State, and they would be a no-doubter in the 12-team field if not for a loss to the Irish in Week 1. Conner Weigman (15 of 25, 217 yards, TD, 2 INTs) made a few mistakes, but a pivotal showdown at home against LSU is on the horizon in Week 9. The home team has won the last seven meetings in this series.
Pitt (6-0, ACC)
The Panthers had a bye week to prepare for a Thursday matchup against Syracuse. SN Midseason All-American Desmond Reid ranks second in the FBS with 182.6 all-purpose yards per game, and the Panthers have shown a knack for winning close games under Pat Narduzzi.
Kansas State (6-1, Big 12)
The Wildcats are back in the Big 12 mix after a 45-18 blowout victory at West Virginia. Avery Johnson (19 of 29, 298 yards, 3 TDs) had his best game of the season, and Kansas State overcame 96 penalty yards and forced two turnovers in the victory. The Wildcats face four consecutive unranked teams, starting with rival Kansas in Week 9. Will Kansas State get a chance to avenge the 38-9 loss at BYU on Sept. 21?
