Full NBA awards breakdown (click to skip down to):
- MVP odds and prediction
- Rookie of the Year odds and prediction
- Most Improved Player odds and prediction
- Defensive Player of the Year odds and prediction
- Coach of the Year odds and prediction
- Sixth Man of the Year odds and prediction
- Clutch Player of the Year odds and prediction
We have officially reached the final stretch of the 2023-24 NBA regular season, with a dead sprint toward the final games of the campaign on the afternoon of Sunday, April 14. Naturally, this time of year sparks a heightened collective interest in the major awards races and their respective futures markets. We'll turn our focus to all those races below, as we reveal the updated NBA betting odds, assess the betting value, and unveil our best bets going into the end of the season.
We get it — you've got questions! Does either Luka Doncic or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have a chance to catch two-time MVP and reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic? Is there any value in betting Victor Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year? How does Malik Monk's injury affect his status as a favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year? Where do Chris Finch and Mark Daigneault sit in the Coach of the Year odds?
MORE NBA: Today's betting odds | Cooper Flagg: future superstar?
You can't very well place any end-of-season futures bets until you have an idea how to answer those questions, and you shouldn't be investining your hard-earned money until you have an idea of which awards market yields value.
Let's dive into the BetMGM odds for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and all the other major awards, and guide you to the best bets, top sleepers, and biggest fades for each one.
NBA MVP odds: Nikola Jokic heavily favored
| Player | Odds | Opening odds |
| Nikola Jokic | -900 | +500 |
| Luka Doncic | +550 | +500 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +2000 | +2000 |
| Jayson Tatum | +10000 | +900 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +10000 | +550 |
Barring a massive turn of events between now and April 14, it appears that Nikola Jokic (-900) will be joining the eight other 3-time MVPs in NBA history. The reigning Finals MVP, whose consecutive MVP streak halted at two when 76ers superstar Joel Embiid won last year, has reached odds that imply a win probability of 90 percent.
It's tough to make an argument against Joker winning another one, which explains why he has generated the most MVP money bet with 46.5 percent of the BetMGM handle. He recently led Denver back to first place in a Western Conference that's as stacked as ever, his scoring has increased from last year, and he continues to do it all at seven feet tall. His averages — 26.4 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.0 assists — and ridiculous efficiency (58/34/82) continue to befuddle all hoops fans.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2000) was running neck-and-neck with Jokic for the vast majority of the season, and rightly so. However, between SGA's stats tapering off a bit over the past month, a suddenly lingering injury and Denver leapfrogging OKC in the standings, it seems that oddsmakers have removed the Canadian superstar from legitimate contention.
MORE: SGA and the Thunder prove that age is just a number
Luka Doncic (+550), hovering among the top of the board all season, has deservedly emerged as the projected runner-up. The Mavericks' sixth-year stud leads the NBA with 33.9 points per game, the most since James Harden in 2020 and among the 20th-most PPG in a season in NBA history. He also averages 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds and he shoots extremely well from the field and from distance. Oh, and Dallas is on fire.
That said, nobody's catching Joker. He could have won his third MVP last season, so he would benefit from some market correction even if the race was closer. But between the Nuggets' record and Jokic leading the Association in a multitude of advanced metrics (player efficiency rating, offensive win shares, win shares, offensive/defensive/total box plus/minus, value over replacement) — this feels like a done deal.
'MAKE PLAYOFF' ODDS, BEST BETS: Lakers | Warriors
Rookie of the Year odds: Closed due to Wemby runaway
| Player | Odds | Odds last week | Open. odds |
| Victor Wembanyama | OTB | -10000 | -225 |
| Chet Holmgren | OTB | +2500 | +500 |
| Brandon Miller | OTB | +50000 | +950 |
Anytime you see a Rookie of the Year futures race completely "OTB" or "off the board" on BetMGM, you know that:
- the frontrunner has enjoyed a historic season
- there isn't much competition behind the favorite
Victor Wembanyama checks both those boxes, as he has been the most phenomenal rookie since LeBron James. He dazzled us from the opening tip of his debut, and he only seems to get better, more focused, and more impressive as the season progresses.
Chet Holmgren would have probably won this award most years, regardless of how many talking heads refute his status as a red-shirt "rookie" (he was injured last season, his true rookie year).
However, Wemby is just too astonishingly good at every level to allow anyone else to contend here. He has a better chance at making an All-NBA team than Holmgren has at winning Rookie of the Year.
MORE WEMBY: Case for All-NBA | Wemby-Joker: the next great rivalry
Most Improved Player odds: Maxey holding strong
| Player | Odds | Last week | Open |
| Tyrese Maxey | -210 | -300 | +1200 |
| Coby White | +170 | +220 | OTB |
| Jalen Williams | +2500 | +10000 | +2000 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | +20000 | +10000 | +5000 |
This one seems to have become a bit of a race, with the full-on breakout of Coby White (+170) playing a huge part in keeping the injury-ravaged Bulls' playoff hopes alive. However, we see this as more of a value opportunity to bet Tyrese Maxey (-210), as we don't see the 76ers' All-Star losing this race unless he misses a handful of games due to injury (he missed two in late March/early April due to hip soreness).
When James Harden forced his way out of Philadelphia, Maxey seamlessly stepped into the future Hall-of-Famer's shoes and mounted an All-Star campaign. When reigning MVP Joel Embiid went down with a major knee injury at the beginning of February, Maxey kept the Sixers in the top eight of the East.
Many will argue that Philadelphia's 11-18 record during that two-month stretch suggests Maxey should not win MIP. But why would White, who has enjoyed playing alongside go-to scorer DeMar DeRozan in all but two of the Bulls' games this season, have any edge on Maxey? Maxey has needed to be the go-to scorer and clutch performer for Philly for the equivalent of nearly half the season. White, even with DeRozan, has the Bulls at four games below .500 on the campaign.
And while White has enjoyed a bigger scoring jump from 2023 to 2024, that's about all his backers can claim as argumentative support. Take a look at the differences between last season and this season for each player:
Defensive Player of the Year odds: Gobert on lock
| Player | Odds | Last week | Open |
| Rudy Gobert | -5000 | -1200 | +1800 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +1300 | +700 | +4000 |
| Anthony Davis | +20000 | +10000 | +1000 |
| Bam Adebayo | +20000 | +10000 | +1000 |
| Jarrett Allen | +20000 | +10000 | +4000 |
Rudy Gobert (-5000) has been a favorite to win his fourth DPOY for most of the season, but he has skyrocketed up to -5000 — basically a 98-percent implied winner — since last week.
Minnesota has not just been one of the best teams in the NBA, it has also been the league's best defense all season. And the Wolves have seemingly not missed a beat since losing Karl-Anthony Towns to a knee injury in early March. As of April 3, Gobert, Anthony Edwards, and company had gone 9-4 without KAT since the injury.
Many, including SN colleague Steph Noh, have argued that Victor Wembanyama (+1300) should be the DPOY. And while we can't argue the fact that Wemby has been an incredibly impressive defender and the best shot-blocker in the Association as a 19-year-old, we just can't see him winning.
The big reason: the Spurs are the worst team in the West, and they rank just 22nd in defensive rating. Only one player in the past two decades has won DPOY despite his team being any lower than top-five in defensive rating (Marcus Camby won despite Denver being ranked 11th in 2006-07, a down year for defense).
Regardless of how you feel about the award, history teaches us that Wemby won't win it — at least not this year (he might win seven DPOYs by the end of his career).
Coach of the Year odds: Mark Daigneault still leads
| Coach | Odds | Last week | Open. |
| Mark Daigneault | -375 | -450 | +1200 |
| Chris Finch | +400 | +1400 | +3000 |
| Jamahl Mosley | +1000 | +550 | +3000 |
| Joe Mazzulla | +5000 | +1400 | +900 |
| JB Bickerstaff | +20000 | +15000 | +1600 |
| Ty Lue | +20000 | +15000 | +2000 |
| Rick Carlisle | +20000 | +15000 | +4000 |
Oklahoma City's Mark Daigneault (-375), who finished second to the Kings' Mike Brown in COY voting last year, is the odds-on favorite to come away with the award in 2024. OKC has made a massive jump, from Play-In team last year to competing for the No. 1 seed in a stacked Western Conference this year.
We've said it before and we'll say it again: the fact that the Thunder are the youngest team in the NBA and have been at or near the top of the West all season is reason enough to give the award to Daigneault. OKC ranks top three in offensive rating, top seven in defensive rating, and second in net rating. There's a reason Daigneault represents BetMGM's biggest liability in this race, commanding 16 percent of all COY tickets and 40 percent of all COY cash.
Minnesota’s Chris Finch (+400) has made a great case for himself by leading the Timberwolves to a top seed in the West, but many will argue that the aforementioned Rudy Gobert — as well as the superstar emergence of Anthony Edwards — have more to do with the Wolves' success than Finch.
Plus, OKC has enjoyed a much bigger jump in winning percentage than Minnesota from last year to this year. And the Wolves have more overall experience, a higher overall team salary, and they had higher expectations coming into the season. Lock Daigneault in for this one, and take a bet if you can stomach the juiced-up odds.
MORE: Thunder prove age is just a number
Sixth Man of the Year odds: Can Monk hold on?
| Player | Odds | Last week | Open. |
| Malik Monk | -150 | -1200 | +1200 |
| Naz Reid | +150 | +900 | +5500 |
| Norman Powell | +800 | +3000 | +900 |
| Bobby Portis | +4000 | +5000 | +2200 |
The Kings' Malik Monk seemed to be running away with this one as of last week, but then the talented pure scorer suffered a late March MCL sprain that could cost him up to six weeks. It's a devastating blow to a Sacramento team that needs his offensive energy on the second unit, and Monk losing this award late in the season to Reid would only add insult to injury.
Still, we think the injury occurred far too late in the season to seriously shift Monk's chances. He was still easily the most effective reserve in the NBA this season — and even if Reid plays every remaining game on the Wolves' schedule, Monk will only trail the sharpshooting center by nine total games. Coincidentally, that's the same number of games that Reid has started this season.
Monk has started zero games all season, just like 2022-23 winner Malcolm Brogdon last year. And Monk's numbers have been far too impressive to get leapfrogged by any of these other candidates. His 15.4 points, 5.1 assists, and 2.9 rebounds in 26 minutes per game should give him the edge over Reid, who averages 13.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.3 assists.
Clutch Player of the Year odds: DeRozan vs. Curry
After bagging the very first Clutch Player of the Year trophy, De'Aaron Fox will more than likely be handing over the reigns to either DeMar DeRozan (-145) or Steph Curry (+110).
Damian Lillard (+6600), the odds-on favorite to start the season, has dipped considerably throughout the campaign, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1600) has been much more widely discussed as an MVP candidate this season than Clutch Player of the Year. Now, with Curry commanding over 65 percent of the Clutch betting handle, BetMGM is probably rooting for DeRozan to win this thing.
MORE: Steph vs. Sabrina see a Round 2...with a twist
Sporting News' own Steph Noh, a renowned NBA analyst and big Bulls fan, wrote in mid-March that DeRozan deserves to be crowned the most clutch. And frankly, we agree. The Bulls seem to live in the clutch, and they wouldn't even be sniffing the playoffs if not for DeRozan's ice-in-the-veins ability at the end of games.
As of April 3, Chicago has gone 25-16 in clutch games while Golden State has gone 22-22. DeRozan also averages 7.2 points per fourth quarter, amongst the top five in the NBA and a hair above Curry's 7.1.
That seems like splitting hairs, sure, but DeRozan shoots 47.3 percent in the fourth while Curry shoots 44.3 percent in the final frame. That's enough for us to hop on the DeRozan bandwagon, who would have easily won this award two seasons ago if it existed back then. Curry can go win this one next year if he really wants it!
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