After finishing runner-up for the award as a rookie, Victor Wembanyama came into the 2024-25 season as one of the biggest favorites of all time to win Defensive Player of the Year.
There's just one problem — Chet Holmgren didn't get that memo.
We are still very early into the season and it's admittedly way too soon to bring up, but the Defensive Player of Week One has been Holmgren, not Wembanyama. To be clear, both players have been dominant, but when you look closely, Holmgren has been better and has a much easier path to winning the award.
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Why Chet Holmgren is Victor Wembanyama's greatest competition for DPOY
Holmgren has been the better rim protector so far
Wembanyama was the league's best rim protector last year, averaging a stellar 3.6 blocks per game. He's down to 2.8 per game this year, perhaps because players aren't foolish enough to challenge him as much.
The impressive swats are still there. For example, watch when Wemby baited Houston's Tari Eason into thinking that there was an opening for a fast break dunk:
Wemby stuck with Tari Eason for over 50 feet to get this chasedown block...
— WembyMuse (@Wemby_Muse) October 29, 2024
Not many centers can do that, let alone 7'5" centers 👽 pic.twitter.com/AOcJGdShiu
Players are taking on the challenge of climbing the Holmgren Highrise much more frequently, and it's not going well for them. He leads the league in field goals defended within six feet and nobody has blocked more shots than him so far this season.
The other defensive statistics show that Holmgren has an early edge as well.
| Chet Holmgren | Stat | Victor Wembanyama |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Blocks per game | 2.8 |
| 1.5 | Steals per game | 0 |
| 8.8 | Defensive rebounds per game | 8.8 |
| 40.4% | Opponent FG% within 6 ft | 48.1% |
If Holmgren keeps averaging 3.5 blocks per game, then he would become only the eighth player to do so since the year 2000. He would have a great statistical resume.
POSITIONAL RANKINGS: PG | SG | SF | PF | C
Holmgren has the better narrative
Wembanyama is probably a better defender than Holmgren based purely on talent. Wemby might be the best defender the NBA has ever seen given his 8-foot wingspan and good mobility. But like other awards, the DPOY is largely narrative-driven. It generally goes to a guy on one of the top defenses in the league.
Look at the past 10 winners as evidence:
| Season | Player | Team's defensive rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Rudy Gobert | 1st |
| 2022-23 | Jaren Jackson Jr | 2nd |
| 2021-22 | Marcus Smart | 2nd |
| 2020-21 | Rudy Gobert | 4th |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 1st |
| 2018-19 | Rudy Gobert | 2nd |
| 2017-18 | Rudy Gobert | 2nd |
| 2016-17 | Draymond Green | 2nd |
| 2015-16 | Kawhi Leonard | 1st |
| 2014-15 | Kawhi Leonard | 1st |
Holmgren's Thunder team will likely finish with the best defense in the league. They're ranked No. 1 by a mile right now while Wembanyama's Spurs are 12th.
That's not all because of Holmgren. The Thunder have the best assortment of perimeter defenders in the league. Led by two-time All-Defensive member Alex Caruso, they also have Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Those are six of the top 25 perimeter defenders in the league, all stacked on the same team. It makes Holmgren's job a lot easier when he has teammates who can contain the ball like they do.
RANKING NBA'S BEST DEFENDERS: 100-11 | 10-1
Wembanyama has the exact opposite setup going for him.
None of Wemby's teammates made Sporting News' top 100 defenders list. He joined what was at the time the worst defense in NBA history, and the Spurs are still playing most of the same guys from that roster. New additions Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes cannot guard at nearly the same level they did a decade ago and are below-average on-ball defenders at their positions due to their age. Wemby has to carry that defense single-handedly, and the fact that he's getting them to nearly average is a miracle.
It would be a huge change in precedent to give Wembanyama the award no matter how dominant he is if the Spurs don't finish in the top 10 in defense. The only player to do so in the 2000s was Marcus Camby, whose 2006-07 Nuggets ranked 11th.
It's still so early in the season that all of this could change, but Holmgren is off to a surprising lead. He extended it by beating Wembanyama's Spurs on Wednesday, helping to hold him to just six points and four turnovers. It's on Wembanyama to take the award from him.
