UFC Preview: Can Japanese phenom Tatsuro Taira stay perfect vs the chaotic Brandon Royval?

Val Dewar

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UFC Preview: Can Japanese phenom Tatsuro Taira stay perfect vs the chaotic Brandon Royval? image

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Tatsuro Taira

While Tatsuro Taira vs Brandon Royval is an excellent fight and should be competitive, one fact has been true for Royval throughout his career: high level wrestler/grapplers who seek to take him down usually do well at stifling the chaos of the ‘Raw Dawg.’

Royval has won some fights against grapplers, in his UFC debut he pulled of an upset over ranked American wrestler Tim Elliott after getting controlled for most of the first round. However, two fights later he found himself matched up with the significantly more skilled Brandon Moreno and lost due to ground and pound (though a shoulder injury helped).

When fully healthy again, the pupil of Mark Montoya at FactoryX faced now-champ Alexandre Pantoja, who beat Royval on ‘The Ultimate Fighter.’ He was dominated and submitted by the best grappler in the division. In their rematch, a title defense for Pantoja, Royval did markedly better but still came nowhere close to winning the fight.

In between those losses, he did beat BJJ specialist Rogerio Bontorin, but he was taken down eight times, was unable to hurt Bontorin, and went to a decision for the first time in the UFC, winning a questionable split.

While I am a fan of Royval and his tumultuous fighting style which causes car crashes and wild scrambles in the octagon, Tatsuro Taira – just like the champion, Pantoja – has the ability and will to impose control on his foe’s pandemonium.

Although Taira did struggle somewhat with Alex Perez before Perez fell victim to injury, he did take down the wrestling coach and Perez constitutes a harder style matchup for the Japanese phenom than Brandon does. He was also just getting started when the injury occurred, and the undefeatead prospect directly contributed to it, even if it was not a standard submission win.

Taira has a perfect style for five rounds, he is measured in his pacing on both the feet and ground, moving quickly when he attacks but having the ability to confidently control opponents in between assaults on the ground and maintain the space on the feet.

He also sets up his advances – whether submissions, takedowns, or actual blows – with intelligent positioning. When he goes on the attack, he does so with some of the best wrestling/grappling technique in the sport.

It is true that Tatsuro will have faced no more dangerous fighter in his career than Royval. Whether on the feet, as Matheus Nicolau found out, or on the ground as Matt Schnell did, Brandon Royval is one of the most opportunistic finishers in the sport. His chaotic movement flusters opponents, or just catches them completely unawares.

Royval did improve his defensive grappling and get-up game for the Pantoja rematch, but he was still unable to do more than not get submitted. Taira also has the perfect point karate style to keep the range and avoid letting ‘Raw Dawg’ get in the pocket where he is most dangerous on the feet, due to the knees he springs on opponents with his awkward lank.

Tatsuro will doubtless not even feel a need to trade hands with Royval; he is an expert at staying long and using kicks to set up his takedowns. When he does shoot, Brandon’s career 40% takedown defense will not stop the young grappler.

Royval also has a bad habit of scrambling into bad positions, and against fighters who are not the best grapplers in the division it often works! But against those with true black belts to their name, he often gets his back taken or stuck in some other bad position; one such turbulent scramble led to his shoulder being dislocated against Brandon Moreno in their first fight.

Tatsuro Taira is now 24 years old, undefeated as a pro, and 6-0 in the UFC only two years into his time with the promotion. Although he has four finishes to his name in those two years, he has not submitted anyone since his third UFC fight.

However, that will change on Saturday; I predict that Brandon Royval will make things hard for Taira in the early rounds whenever the fight is on the feet and his scrambles could pose issues for the young grappler, but short of a shocking submission it is hard to see him actually coming out on top.

Although he is the most opportunistic submission artist below 145-lbs, Tatsuro Taira is such a master of positional grappling that I do not see him giving Royval the chance to wrap something serious up, and a desperation guillotine will not be enough.

By the third or fourth round Taira will have drained Royval enough to stifle his struggles, and make a submission come easier. His price tag as a three-to-one favorite, per the oddsmakers, is deserved.

Val Dewar

Val Dewar Photo

Val was initiated into Steelers Nation from the moment he was born — his first memory is a game vs. New England from when "Slash" was QB — and doing sports writing has always been a dream career for him. In 2022 he broke into the industry by writing about combat sports for Cageside Press, and now has the opportunity to continue that work with TSN as an MMA writer, as well as get his feet wet on the Steelers beat.