After beginning his UFC stint 1-2 against only decent competition, Aiemann Zahabi has turned things around with four wins in a row, which culminates in this chance to get within spitting distance of the top fifteen by beating Pedro Munhoz.
Munhoz, aka 'The Young Punisher,' is not so young anymore after a decade with the UFC, of which he was a ranked bantamweight for the vast majority. Now 38-year-old Pedro is out of the rankings due to his poor recent form.
Despite retaining a winning UFC record, only winning one of his last six has put Munhoz at just 10-9 (2NC) with the promotion. A loss here would bring him to .500 for his entire UFC run, which would be unfortunate after such a great body of work, but does often happen to aging fighters as they slow down.
As a result, there is a real chance that Zahabi can defeat Munhoz despite a wide athleticism disparity still existing. Munhoz is known as a power hitter with an iron chin and deadly submissions, but struggles in terms of tactics and strategy. Aiemann, whose elder brother is legendary MMA coach Firas Zahabi, managed to out-maneuver one of the premier unranked technicians in the division, Javid Basharat, and win a 29-28 decision.
While Pedro has been fighting dynamic talents lately, there is reason to believe someone with high fight IQ, good footwork, and solid boxing can defeat a fighter who so relied on athleticism for his entire career.
However, Chris Gutierrez showed what happens to fighters who face Munhoz without elite skills and planning nothing but their usual approach. Gutierrez did land more strikes, but even in his advanced age Munhoz hits like a truck when he connects cleanly. Fighters with a real game plan against post-prime Pedro can usually see it coming, but Chris got dropped and lost a decision. The same, or worse, could happen to Zahabi. He has a good chin, but it can crack, as Ricardo Ramos showed. In fact, Aiemann has not fought a fighter more explosive since then.
Zahabi is one of the best defensive fighters in the UFC — his opponents only land 29% of their significant strikes against him — but level of competition, and an infamously poor performance from Ricky Turcios where he landed 11% of his strikes on Aiemann, skew that number.
Still, despite the athleticism disparity I believe Zahabi can outstrike Munhoz, who telegraphs all his best shots: his overhand and his leg kicks. Aiemann Zahabi never gets reckless and falls into his opponents' traps. The fight should be close barring a finish for Pedro, it may even be a split decision, but I will be picking Aiemann Zahabi to edge it out with his defensive capabilities likely being just too much for an inaccurate Munhoz to pierce.
