The Dodgers are staring down elimination in Game 4 of the NLDS, and they've been down this road before.
Los Angeles suffered upset NLDS exits in both 2022 and 2023, both against division rivals, and one more loss would deliver the same fate against a Padres team that has been scorching hot since the All-Star break.
Coming up short against San Diego wouldn't be a massive upset, but it would be a major disappointment for the Dodgers in their first season with Shohei Ohtani — and the weight of championship expectations that came with him.
Here's a look at the Dodgers' recent postseason struggles and why they're happening again.
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Dodgers playoff failures
Seven of the Dodgers' past 10 postseason appearances have ended with elimination at the hands of a team that finished with a worse regular season record. The exceptions are 2016, when they lost to the NL-leading Cubs, 2018, when they lost the World Series to the Red Sox, and 2020, when the Dodgers won the World Series.
Here are the playoff disappointments of the last decade for the Dodgers:
| Year | Record | Result |
| 2014 | 94-68 | Lost NLDS to Cardinals (90-72) |
| 2015 | 92-70 | Lost NLDS to Mets (90-72) |
| 2017 | 104-58 | Lost World Series to Astros (101-61) |
| 2019 | 106-56 | Lost NLDS to Nationals (93-69) |
| 2021 | 106-56 | Lost NLCS to Braves (88-73) |
| 2022 | 111-51 | Lost NLDS to Padres (89-73) |
| 2023 | 100-62 | Lost NLDS to Diamondbacks (84-78) |
Not only did the past four teams to eliminate the Dodgers have a worse record, but each finished at least 13 games behind Los Angeles in the regular season. The 2019 Nationals were 13 games back of the Dodgers, while the 2021 Braves (17.5 games), 2022 Padres (22 games, and 2023 Diamondbacks (16 games) had an even wider gap.
2024 could make it eight in 11 years, as the Padres (93-69) finished five games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but just need one more win to eliminate their division rivals.
It wouldn't be fair to call an NLDS loss this season an upset on par with anything from 2019-2023 considering how well the Padres played down the stretch and the balance of their roster, but it would be a colossal disappointment nonetheless after more than $1 billion was spent in offseason additions over the winter.
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What's gone wrong for the Dodgers?
The Dodgers' exits in 2021 and 2022 were mystifying. Los Angeles was decisively better than the Braves and Padres in each regular season and entered the postseason as the favorite to win the World Series. Last season was shocking, but it was at least explainable: starting pitching injuries shredded the Dodgers' rotation, and the front office didn't do much at the trade deadline to address it. Los Angeles' biggest deadline addition was arguably Lance Lynn, who had a nightmarish first half and came with a penchant for giving up home runs.
By the time the 2023 NLDS came around, the Dodgers effectively had three starters to work with: an aging Clayton Kershaw, an inexperienced Bobby Miller, and Lynn. That doesn't mean they should have lost the series to an 84-win team, let alone get swept, but once Kershaw was clobbered in the first inning of Game 1, the stage was set for the Diamondbacks to compete.
Similar issues popped up this season. Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone are both out with arm injuries, while big-money addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto missed three months with a shoulder injury. He's now back and started Game 1 for the Dodgers, but he can't give LA the length he would have before the injury.
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Elsewhere in the rotation, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller just haven't pitched well. Buehler had an ERA north of 5.00 after missing all of 2023 with his second Tommy John Surgery, while Miller had an 8.52 ERA and couldn't keep his rotation spot in a significant regression from last season.
Where does that leave the Dodgers? They started a limited Yamamoto in Game 1 of the NLDS, followed by Jack Flaherty and Buehler. A bullpen game it anticipated in Game 4.
Flaherty has been excellent in 2024, but he struggled in a Game 2 loss and is ultimately just one pitcher.
The Dodgers' offense hasn't been especially consistent, failing to score the one extra run they needed after Teoscar Hernandez's early grand slam in Game 3, but 4.7 runs is often enough to win in October when pitching is king. The Dodgers have allowed seven runs per game to this point in the NLDS, and a thin starting rotation simply hasn't been enough in a month dominated by pitching.
