Who will win the Preakness Stakes? Horses, odds, expert picks & more for 2023 Triple Crown race

The 2023 Preakness Stakes is set to have something the 2022 iteration of the event did not: The reigning Kentucky Derby winner will take aim at winning the second of the Triple Crown races.

Mage — who is coming off a one-length victory at Churchill Downs — will participate in this year's Preakness. This comes after the Derby-winning horse in 2022, Rich Strike, bowed out of the second leg of the Triple Crown after finding immense success as a last-minute Derby entrant.

Mage's presence will create a buzz around Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore that wasn't there last year. And running in an eight-horse field, the colt should have a chance to win the "Run for the Black-Eyed Susans."

Still, Mage will have to stave off competition from National Treasure and a bevy of horses waiting for their opportunity after failing to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

MORE: Full results, finish order, highlights from 2023 Kentucky Derby

So, who are the best bets to win the Preakness Stakes in 2023? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets for the Triple Crown race.

Preakness Stakes odds 2023

It shouldn't surprise anyone to see the Kentucky Derby winner Mage (+160) favored to win the Preakness, but he is not the only horse to sport better than 5-1 odds to win the race. National Treasure (+400) is expected to give Mage a run for his money in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

As for the rest of the eight-horse field, most fall between +500 and +2000 in the odds to win the race. But there is one major long shot on the board: Chase The Chaos (+5000) is expected to be at the back of the field, so it would be a surprise to see him emerge with a victory.

Below is a look at the full odds to win the Preakness Stakes, via the Maryland Jockey Club.

Note: The No. 8 horse, First Mission, was scratched on Friday as a result of a hind leg injury. He was one of the race favorites, with odds of +250 to win the event.

MORE: Fast facts to know about 2023 Preakness horses

Preakness Stakes expert picks

The Preakness Stakes is the shortest of the Triple Crown races at 1 3/16 miles, so this race will favor horses that start well and have good speed more than the others. Stamina is still important, but there is simply less time to make up for a bad start than there is at the Kentucky Derby.

On the bright side, fewer horses will run in the Preakness than at the Derby. As such, bettors won't have to worry as much about their horse being boxed out coming out of the gate. Still, it's best to target horses that start well and have a good kick on the back stretch in this race. Those are the key traits in identifying a Preakness winner.

Best bets to win the Preakness Stakes 2023

Before First Mission was scratched, he looked like the best bet for the race. He had similar speed to Mage — he holds a 103 Equibase speed figure, while Mage is at 104 — and had similar results to the Derby winner. The colt won two of his first three races while finishing second in his lone defeat.

But with First Mission scratched because of a leg injury, It's hard to argue against Mage (+160) as the best bet to win this race. Mage proved he could win at the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, showing good speed and closing burst to win the race as a 15-1 underdog.

So as long as Mage doesn't wait too long to make his final move, jockey Javier Castellano will have a chance to ride the colt to a win.

If you'd rather roll with a value pick, National Treasure (+400) is the next best bet to win. He has four, top-three finishes in five career races with one win to his name. His 101 Equibase speed rating isn't quite as fast as Mage's 104, but it puts him in the same ballpark as the Derby-winning horse.

National Treasure also got a solid draw on the rail, so if he can get off to a fast start, he will have a chance to control the speed and eventually make a strong push on the back stretch. That's enough to trust him given the value he provides compared to Mage.

Sleeper pick to win the Preakness Stakes 2023

If you're looking for a sleeper to back in the Preakness, Red Route One (+1000) looks like the most appealing value pick for bettors to target.

Red Route One is an experienced racehorse who has run nine races during his career. He has produced two first-place finishes, two second-place finishes and a third-place finish, displaying good closing speed in those events.

In his last two races, Red Route One nearly won the 1 1/6-mile Rebel Stakes; he came from near the back of the 11-horse field to lose by just half a length. His most recent race — a sixth-place finish at the Arkansas Derby — will scare some off, but he was beaten mostly by horses that ended up participating in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (including Angel of Empire, King Russell, Reincarnate and Rocket Can).

Red Route One still held his own, to an extent, in the 1 1/8-mile race. Perhaps he can make up more ground in the Preakness, given it's a longer race and he has a great closing burst. The only question is whether he can stalk off the pace effectively enough to have a chance at closing the gap at the end.

Still, at 10-1 odds, it's worth taking a chance on Red Route One: He should have a chance to be among the race leaders in this eight-horse field.

MORE: What is Commonwealth? How Mage's win benefits horse's 391 co-owners

What is the best post position in horse racing?

As always, the best post position will vary by race and the horse running in each spot. Typically, horses that like more space will prefer to be in the high-numbered posts, which allow them to work with space to the outside and spend less time inside of the starting gate.

Of course, the shortest path to victory comes on the rail, so getting the No. 1 gate can be an advantage for some horses. However, claustrophobic horses will have trouble in that spot. Why? Because they have to not only wait inside the gate longer, but also have to deal with traffic on one side and the rail on the other, leaving them little room to maneuver.

As such, those horses may get nervous and stray away from the pack while looking for space. That often leads to those horses hanging back if they can't get out to an early lead and see a clear path in front of them.

The Preakness Stakes has had a wide distribution of winners over its history, as each of the first eight gates have produced at least 10 winners. That said, the No. 6 spot has been the most favorable gate, producing 16 winners since the starting gate was first implemented in 1909. The Nos. 4 and 7 gates are close behind, both having produced 14 winners each.

Here is the complete list of Preakness Stakes winners at each post position:

Preakness Stakes winners by post position

The Preakness Stakes first implemented a starting gate in 1909. Since then, every gate numbered 1-13 has produced a winner. Gate Nos. 1 through 8 have all produced at least 10 winners over the 113 races run since the race began using a starting gate.

The winning horse from the 2022 Preakness Stakes, Early Voting, ran out of the No. 5 gate in a nine-horse race. He was the third winner to come out of Gate 5 since 2000; the position joined Gates 1, 4 and 7 as the only others to produce at least three winners in that span.

Below is a list of all of the Preakness winners by gate since 1909:

*Preakness divided

1 — (12)

2 — (12)

3 — (12)

4 — (14)

5 — (13)

6 — (16)

7 — (14)

8 — (10)

9 — (4)

10 — (2)

11 — (2)

12 — (3)

13 — (1)