Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Post position draw, odds, contenders, best value bet and longshot for 2024 'Run for the Roses'

It's time to don your snazziest hat and sip a mint julep or two, as the 2024 Kentucky Derby kicks off horse racing's Triple Crown Series season on Saturday, May 4. Morning-line odds were released after the post position draw, held one week before the race.

The starting field includes an unbeaten and intriguing horse from Japan in Forever Young, who's never competed in the United States. There'll be two other US horses vying for favorite status up until the race, with Fierceness (pictured above) and Sierra Leone neck and neck on the oddsboard.

We'll get to Kentucky Derby odds, contenders, best value bets, and a longshot for Saturday's "Run for the Roses" at Churchill Downs, but take this opportunity to claim a huge $500 "No Sweat Win Bet" from FanDuel Racing first! 

Kentucky Derby 2024 draw: Odds & post positions

Here's a look at 2024 Kentucky Derby odds at FanDuel Racing.   

Morning-line odds are simply predictions on what a horse's closing odds will be. They have no bearing on how bets are paid out. With pari-mutuel wagering, odds are determined by the amount of money bet on each entry, and unlike in sports betting, closing odds are the prices at which each bet is effective.

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Top contenders in 2024 Kentucky Derby

Here's a look at the top contenders to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

Fierceness 

Fierceness is a worthy betting favorite, and he'll be difficult to beat if there's a slow pace early. The Chad Brown-trained colt is coming off a front-running victory in the Florida Derby, which he won by more than 13 lengths.

There's not a better jockey in the game than Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who'll be back in the stirrups in the Kentucky Derby after winning in Florida. 

Sierra Leone 

Sierra Leone came from off the pace to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in incredible fashion. He went from ninth to first down the stretch to beat Just a Touch by  1.5 lengths. 

If the pace cooperates, it'd be no surprise to see jockey Tyler Gaffalione ask for the same closing kick to cover the added furlong in the Kentucky Derby at 1-1/4 miles. Another definite contender to win here. 

Forever Young

Fun fact: A Japanese horse has never won the Kentucky Derby. Derma Sotogake finished sixth in last year's Kentucky Derby, which marked the fourth-ever winless start for Japan in the "Run for the Roses" at Churchill Downs.

Forever Young appears capable of bucking that trend on Saturday. Not one of his five starts -- and all resulted in victories -- have come in America, but he's captured big victories in the Saudi Derby, and most recently, the UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse in the United Arab Emirates.

T O Password is also expected to represent Japan as a longshot in this year's Kentucky Derby, but Forever Young gives the country its best chance to win.

Catching Freedom 

Catching Freedom closed as the third betting favorite in the the final Kentucky Derby futures pool at 8-1. Catching Freedom is coming off a victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in March.

The Brad Cox-trained colt has three wins in five career starts including his maiden victory right here at Churchill Downs. Both Cox and jockey Flavien Prat have already scored a win in the Kentucky Derby, too. 

Kentucky Derby value bet at mid-range odds and a longshot 

There's nothing better than cashing tickets on mid-range priced horses or locking in on a longshot in the Kentucky Derby. Here's a value bet and longshot for your betting consideration. 

Honor Marie

Trainer Whit Beckman and jockey Ben Curtis are both making their first appearance in the Kentucky Derby, and that probably contributes to somewhat longer odds here on Honor Marie.

Honor Marie won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last November in his final race as a 2-year-old. He then fizzled to a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fairgrounds.

But Honor Marie rebounded nicely with a runner-up finish to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in March. That improvement under Curtis was enough to keep him on the Honor Code colt in the Kentucky Derby.  

This longshot bet on Honor Marie is predicated on a fast pace, as we've seen in the past two runnings of the Kentucky Derby. Honor Marie scored his previous win at Churchill Downs -- and the Louisiana Derby runnerup finish -- after chasing a fast pace. We'll take a shot on Honor Marie at this price and hope the pace settles in our favor.

Resilience 

Resilience easily won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct his last time out, and it was the first time he competed with blinkers. The Bill Mott-trained colt is peaking at the proper time. 

John Velazquez rode Resilience to victory in the Wood, but he'll be on favorite Fierceness in the Kentucky Derby. Junior Alvarado will get the riding duties on Saturday.

Alvarado put Resilience through his paces in this impressive workout on Monday at Churchill Downs. 

Resilience working five furlongs in 1:01.60. #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/VWI0RCqpYX

— Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) April 22, 2024

Bred for stamina, Resilience has the pedigree to handle the 1-1/4 mile distance. He also finished second and third in two previous appearances at Churchill Downs prior to breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park in January.