Picking the Kentucky Derby winner is much easier said than done. Anyone who has bet on the race in recent years, which have included two long-shot winners in Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022), knows that to be true. History does tell us one thing, however: the horse in the No. 17 post is the opposite of a safe bet.
No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby out of the No. 17 post, a remarkable stretch of disappointment that no other post can claim. Forty Niner has the best finish in the history of the No. 17 post, finishing second in 1998, and no horse has finished top five out of the No. 17 post since 2005.
Does the No. 17 post actually come with a disadvantage, or have horses running out of that post just been on the wrong end of some bad luck over the years?
Here's a look at the history of the No. 17 post at the Kentucky Derby and why it's never produced a winner.
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Why has a horse never won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 17 post?
The biggest factor in the lack of success from the No. 17 post might be that there aren't always 17 horses running in the Kentucky Derby. Any scratch leading up to the race moves the rest of the horses inward, so the No. 17 post has only had a horse on 44 occasions. Posts No. 1-6 have had a horse 94 times. The odds of a win over 44 tries are simply not as great as the odds of a win over 94 tries.
With that being said, there has been some bad luck involved. Posts No. 18-20 have run even fewer horses over the years, but all have seen at least one win. Two horses have won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 18 post, most recently Country House after a stunning finish in 2019. The No. 19 post has one win, and the No. 20 post has two wins, including long-shot Rich Strike in 2022.
The odds are slim for every post because a 20-horse field gives each post only a five-percent chance of winning. In recent years, though, trends have suggested that posts on the outside actually stand a better chance of winning with a less crowded group around them. Eight of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners ran from the No. 13 post or wider — the No. 17 post just hasn't seen any of that success or even come close to a top-three finish.
Wins from the posts on either side of No. 17 indicate bad luck is a bigger reason for the futility than anything else.
Which Kentucky Derby horse is in the No. 17 post in 2024?
Fierceness was initially set to run out of the No. 17 post in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, but a withdrawal Wednesday changed that. Encino left the field, pushing Stronghold into the No. 17 post.
Despite being in the No. 17 post, Fierceness, trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher was — and still is — considered the favorite. It's possible the drought could have ended this year if Fierceness stayed in the No. 17 post.
That task will be more difficult now. Stronghold has 20-1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby.
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Which post has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners?
The No. 5 post has produced 10 winners at the Kentucky Derby, making it the most successful spot, historically. Posts No. 8 and 10 come in just behind No. 5 with nine winners.
Here's a look at Kentucky Derby wins by post number, courtesy of kentuckyderby.com:
| Post | Wins | Last win |
| No. 5 | 10 | 2017 |
| No. 8 | 9 | 2023 |
| No. 10 | 9 | 2005 |
| No. 1 | 8 | 1986 |
| No. 7 | 8 | 2021 |
| No. 2 | 7 | 1978 |
| No. 15 | 6 | 2020 |
| No. 3 | 5 | 1998 |
| No. 4 | 5 | 2010 |
| No. 13 | 5 | 2016 |
| No. 9 | 4 | 1972 |
| No. 16 | 4 | 2011 |
| No. 12 | 3 | 1971 |
| No. 6 | 2 | 1993 |
| No. 11 | 2 | 1998 |
| No. 14 | 2 | 1961 |
| No. 18 | 2 | 2019 |
| No. 20 | 2 | 2022 |
| No. 19 | 1 | 2012 |
| No. 17 | 0 | N/A |
