The 2023 Kentucky Derby, the 149th running of horse racing's most prestigious event, will be held this Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville (post time 6:57 p.m. ET, NBC). The longest continually-running event in the United States, the Derby represents the first leg of racing's Triple Crown and will feature 20 horses ranging in odds from +450 to +5000. Today we will reveal the best sleepers and value bets to win "the fastest two minutes of sports."
Stud thoroughbred Forte (+450) serves as the odds-on favorite to win the latest installment of the 'Run for the Roses,' having won five consecutive races and six of seven career starts. But a race-time favorite has not emerged victorious from the Kentucky Derby since Justify in 2018, and only 40 of 115 favorites or co-favorites have won the event in the pari-mutuel wagering era (since 1908). That gives us plenty of hope for the field, which many racing experts have deemed to be deep and loaded with dark horses (pun intended). After Rich Strike took down the 2022 Derby at 80-1 odds, we know anything's possible.
MORE KENTUCKY DERBY: Odds & Picks | Fast facts about the field | Weather updates | Scratches
Full disclosure: we will be betting Forte and Tapit Trice to finish in the money. Top Derby favorites have landed on the board a whopping 73 times since 1908, an in-the-money success rate of 63.5 percent. Forte has been the most dominant in the sport and leads from post 15, while Tapit Trice — who, like Forte, is trained by Todd Pletcher — also has a favorable post position at five. But we don't just want to bet the odds-on favorites to place — what's the fun in that? We also want to pinpoint some value at longer odds, and set ourselves up for a big potential payday to go with our Saturday evening mint juleps.
Let's take a look at the 2023 Kentucky Derby odds board, and then reveal our favorite sleepers and value bets to win the 149th installment of the best race in the world.
Kentucky Derby 2023: Odds board
Odds are from FanDuel Racing. Pos. = post position.
| Horse | Odds | Pos. |
| Forte | +450 | 15 |
| Tapit Trice | +500 | 5 |
| Angel of Empire | +500 | 14 |
| Two Phil's | +800 | 3 |
| Derma Sotogake (Japan) | +800 | 17 |
| Kingsbarns | +1200 | 6 |
| Reincarnate | +1500 | 7 |
| Mage | +1700 | 8 |
| Confidence Game | +1900 | 4 |
| Verifying | +2200 | 2 |
| Mandarin Hero (Japan) | +2600 | 22 |
| Disarm | +3200 | 11 |
| Hit Show | +3400 | 1 |
| Sun Thunder | +3500 | 13 |
| Rocket Can | +3500 | 18 |
| Raise Cain | +3700 | 16 |
| Jace's Road | +3800 | 12 |
| Cyclone Mischief | +4300 | 21 |
| King Russell | +4300 | 23 |
Kentucky Derby 2023: Best value bets
Kingsbarns (+1200)
As I said in the intro, Forte and Tapit Trice are my favorite chalk bets to finish in the top three. They're starting from two of the three most successful post positions in Kentucky Derby history, and they are both trained by one of the best in the business, Todd Pletcher. But I also like another Pletcher horse, Kingsbarns, out of the underrated sixth position. Not only has Pletcher established himself as a trainer of winners, but post six has also produced the most Derby runners-up of all time (eight).
A Hall-of-Fame trainer, Pletcher's reputation precedes him — he was born into the sport, as his father Jake has been an acclaimed trainer since 1969. He won the Eclipse Award eight times as Trainer of the Year, and his horses Super Saver and Always Dreaming won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 and 2017, respectively. Pletcher has also had three different horses win the Belmont Stakes.
As for the horse himself, Kingsbarns has plenty of promise. He won his debut race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14, 2023, and carried that momentum over to his next race with a victory by 7 3/4 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 12. He then won wire-to-wire at the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 25, taking down a $1 million prize. Don't underestimate Kingsbarns because he has the third-longest odds of Pletcher's horses — he is a blazingly fast and supremely talented horse.
Reincarnate (+1500)
Among a field that has been widely stated as lacking speed, Reincarnate serves as one of the quickest breakers off the blocks. He will lead from post 7, a great starting spot for a speedster, and it's worth noting that he's jockeyed by three-time Kentucky Derby winner John Velazquez. Even better, two of Velazquez's three career Derby victories came from the front end. This seems like great pricing for a modest wager on Reincarnate.
Kentucky Derby 2023: Best sleepers
Disarm (+3200)
Disarm has shown a remarkable ability to make up for poor post positions and blazing speed around him. He's a big, strong horse with awesome long-race stamina, and he's trained by Hall-of-Famer Steve Asmussen. Asmussen has put 24 horses in 17 different installments of the Kentucky Derby, and he damn near won his first one last year before his eventual division champion Epicenter led late only to be passed by Rich Strike for the upset victory. This could be Asmussen's chance to atone for that bad beat and finally etch his name into Churchill Downs immortality. Disarm is a fantastic bet to mount the sleeper win or at least finish in the money this Saturday night. Don't let the 32-1 odds scare you — he has a number of traits of a Kentucky Derby champion, and he has the strength and durability to withstand a rainy race.
Rocket Can (+3500)
Rocket Can always puts up a good fight, and could surprise the world from post 18 this weekend. Bill Mott's gray colt battled Derby favorite Forte and ultimately placed second in the Fountain of Youth in March, and rallied from fifth past Cyclone's Mischief to emerge victorious in the Holy Bull. He's a longshot for a reason — he looked awful his last time out — but we like Rocket Can's chances as a perseverant stalker who can explode through the final stretch of the 1 1/4 mile run.
For more betting content on the Run for the Roses, be sure to check out Sporting News' Kentucky Derby expert Jacob Camenker's betting preview. Among his picks and predictions, Jacob explains his reasoning behind betting Verifying as his top sleeper at +2200.
