The 2022 Kentucky Derby, the 148th edition, remains back where it belongs in the first Saturday in May for a second consecutive year. Although Epicenter and Zandon have been dominating the headlines going into the race as neck-and-neck favorites, there's plenty of intrigue overall to see who succeeds Mandaloun in the Run for the Roses.
Mandaloun (12-1 in 2021) was named the winner last year after Medina Spirit (15-1) was disqualified for failing a drug test. That led to legendary trainer Bob Baffert being suspended from having an entry this year, as well as denying him a repeat after his horse Authentic won the Derby in 2020.
This year's field of talented 3-year-old thoroughbreds competing at Louisville's iconic Churchill Downs this Saturday, May 7 (6:57 p.m. ET post time on NBC) will hope they leave with a chance to win all three jewels of horse racing's Triple Crown — just like two recent Baffert horses, Justify in 2018 and American Pharoah in 2015.
Before you make your final Kentucky Derby picks for win, place and show in 2022, here's a look at the odds, favorites and longshots and how history, personnel and conditions can hurt or help each horse. Look for updates as the morning line changes.
MORE: Complete betting guide for the 2022 Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby post positions, morning line odds for 2022
Here are the results and updated betting lines for the field from Churchill Downs after the Monday, May 2 draw:
(Morning line odds as of May 6, per KentuckyDerby.com)
| Horse (by post position) | Odds |
| Mo Donegal (1) | 10-1 |
| Happy Jack (2) | 30-1 |
| Epicenter (3) | 7-2 |
| Summer Is Tomorrow (4) | 30-1 |
| Smile Happy (5) | 20-1 |
| Messier (6) | 8-1 |
| Crown Pride (JPN) (7) | 20-1 |
| Charge It (8) | 20-1 |
| Tiz the Bomb (9)c | 30-1 |
| Zandon (10) | 3-1 |
| Pioneer of Medina (11) | 30-1 |
| Taiba (12) | 12-1 |
| Simplification (13) | 20-1 |
| Barber Road (14) | 30-1 |
| White Abarrio (15) | 10-1 |
| Cyberknife (16) | 20-1 |
| Classic Causeway (17) | 30-1 |
| Tawny Port (18) | 30-1 |
| Zosos (19) | 20-1 |
| Ethereal Road (20) | 30-1 |
| Rich Strike | 30-1 |
| Rattle N Roll | 30-1 |
Which Kentucky Derby contender has the best track record?
Zandon's status is a bit of a surprise given his limited experience of only four races . But he's coming off an impressive performance down the road in Lexington on April 9, winning the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.
Epicenter has done his best work in New Orleans' Fair Grounds, winning the Grade 2 Risen Star and Louisiana Derby as part of its six total starts. So the quality favors Zandon a little more than Epicenter's quantity.
Messier, the Canadian sensation named for the Hall of Fame NHL Oiler and Ranger, is in the mix behind while improving and finishing just behind Talba in the Santa Anita Derby. Mo Donegal's momentum comes from taking the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Not to be forgotten is White Abarrio, who emerged victorious at the Florida Derby. The last major prep race for Churchill Downs went to Cyberknife at the Arkansas Derby.
Florida Derby winners have won 5 of past 16 Kentucky Derbys, the latest being Always Dreaming in 2017. Zandon is trying to become the 20th horse to double up big from Lexington to Louisville.
MORE: How much will the Kentucky Derby winner make in 2022?
Which trainers can you trust in the 2022 Kentucky Derby?
Brad H. Cox got his first Derby win last year with Mandaloun following the Baffert mess. Cyberknife is the strongest of his three entires this year, followed by Zosos and Tawny Port. Two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher also has his trio in Mo Donegal, Charge It and Pioneer of Medina. D. Wayne Lukas, however, has more of a longshot in going for his fifth Derby victory with Ethereal Road.
On the flip side, Steve Asmussen is looking for that elusive Derby breakthrough with Epicenter. Chad C. Brown, for all his fine work, is in a similar situation with Zandon.
Six-time winner Baffert might not be there, but his presence will be felt with Tim Yakteen, who took over to train Messier and Taiba. Yakteen's first win would really feel like an extension of Baffert's recent hot streak.
MORE: All-time Kentucky Derby records
Which jockeys have had the most success at the Kentucky Derby?
Florent Geroux is trying to repeat right along with Cox while riding Cyberknife. Three-time winner John Velazquez, who brought home Authentic for Baffert, puts Messier in good hands.
Flavien Pratt, who won with Country House in 2019, will be riding Zandon. Going back to 2018, Mike E. Smith gets his shot for No. 2 aboard Taiba. It's a good thing, then that Epicenter has Joel Rosario, the 2013 winner with Orb, motivated to end his drought. That's a daunting group of experienced champions to think a newcomer will join the club.
MORE: How much are Kentucky Derby tickets?
Who's the best longshot pick to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby?
Cyberknife has a great story, as he's the first horse owned by Al Gold to compete in the Derby. The name refers to the radiation equipment that was required to hlep Gold while he battled prostate cancer. At 20-1, there's high upset alert for Cyberknife with the Cox-Leroux combination at work again.
With better odds, both at 10-1, White Abarrio and Taiba have the recent wins that often parlay into Derby success. In terms of true longshot status, it's Zosos over Tawny Port to watch first as the other Cox contender.
Als consider Happy Jack to finish in the top three, given he is trained by two-time Derby winner Doug O'Neill and finished third behind Talba and Messier at the Santa Anita. If you're going with a Pletcher longshot, the choice is Pioneer of Medina, third-place finisher at the Louisiana Derby.
Which post position is the most advantageous?
In Kentucky Derby history, no post position has produced more winners than No. 5 with 10 over 147 years. No. 10 comes in second with nine winners. No. 5 is something to smile about for Smile Happy, positioned where Always Dreaming won five years ago, California Chrome won in '14 and Audible placed in '18. No. 10 is a welcome boost for the surging Zandon but it's been 17 years since a horse won from there (Giacomo in '05).
Next in line is post position No. 8, with 8 winners, including Mine That Bird in '09 and Barbaro in '06. In 2018, Justify became the lucky seventh horse to win from No. 7, following Street Sense in, yep, you guessed it, 2007. Last year, Medina Spirit had thought it won from No. 8, but Mandaloun ended up prevailing from No. 7. Charge It and Crown Pride (JPN) will hope that history helps them in their battle inside with the same odds.
Being near the rail has been bad news of late. It's been 35 years since Ferdinand won from No. 1, and 403years since Affirmed won from No. 2. This year, Nos. 1 and 2 are tough breaks for Mo Donegal (especially so) and Happy Jack.
The sweet spot in recent years has been anywhere outside No. 12. In reverse order back to 2008, such winners include Nyquist (No. 13), American Pharoah (No. 18), Orb (No. 16), I'll Have Another (No. 19), Animal Kingdom (No. 16) and Big Brown (No. 20). Following that, Country House won from No. 20 in 2019 and Authentic took the Derby from No. 18 in 2020. The one exception is No. 17, which has never produced a Derby winner in 43 tries, a curse Classic Causeway will be challenged to reverse.
Kentucky Derby 2022 picks
Here is the projected order of finish at the 2022 Kentucky Derby:
| Win: Messier |
| Place: Cyberknife |
| Show: Zandon |
Here's going for the value picks of the motivated Messier and the determined Cyberknife, with Zandon's experience causing him to fade. At 8-1 and 20-1, there's better respective value with the the win and place choices her. Messier has been responding well to Yakteen of late and Baffert's influence cannot be ignored in a horse ready for its best race yet.
