The 2019 Kentucky Derby has no shortage of viable contenders. That should make the 145th "Run For the Roses" another exciting and unpredictable one, especially with favorite Omaha Beac being scratched on Wednesday.
This year's field of talented 3-year-old thoroughbreds competing at Louisville's iconic Churchill Downs this Saturday, May 4 (6:50 p.m. ET post time on NBC) will hope they leave with a chance to win all three jewels of horse racing's Triple Crown — just like Justify in 2018.
Before you make your final Kentucky Derby picks for win, place and show, here's a look at the odds, favorites and longshots and how history and conditions can hurt or help each horse. Look for updates as the morning line changes.
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Post positions, morning line odds for 2019 Kentucky Derby
Here are the results and updated betting lines for the field from Churchill Downs after the April 30 draw:
(Morning line odds as of May 4, per KentuckyDerby.com)
| Horse (Post pos.) | Odds | Line |
| Omaha Beach (scratched) | — | — |
| Roadster (17) | 10/1 | +700 |
| Improbable (5) | 5/1 | +600 |
| Game Winner (16) | 6/1 | +600 |
| Tacitus (8) | 5/1 | +900 |
| Maximum Security (7) | 9/2 | +900 |
| Code of Honor (13) | 12/1 | +800 |
| Win Win Win (14) | 15/1 | +1800 |
| War of Will (1) | 17/1 | +1600 |
| Vekoma (6) | 22/1 | +1400 |
| By My Standards (3) | 16/1 | +1600 |
| Tax (2) | 37/1 | +1800 |
| Cutting Humor (10) | 24/1 | +2800 |
| Haikal (scratched) | — | — |
| Spinoff (19) | 51/1 | +3300 |
| Country House (20) | 64/1 | +3300 |
| Long Range Toddy (18) | 48/1 | +3300 |
| Plus Que Parfait (9) | 54/1 | +3300 |
| Gray Magician (4) | 31/1 | +5000 |
| Master Fencer (15) | 51/1 | +5000 |
| Bodexpress (20) | 99/1 | +2500 |
MORE: A quick guide to betting on horse racing
Which Kentucky Derby contender has the best track record?
Omaha Beach earned its favorite status by taking the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Three horses that have swept both have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, including Smarty Jones in 2004 and American Pharoah in 2015. So his late scratch is a big help to the rest of the field.
Maximum Security won the Florida Derby a month ago at Gulfstream Park. Three of past six Kentucky Derby winners (Always Dreaming, Nyquist and Orb) accomplished that feat, and Audible showed last year. Overall, the Florida Derby winner has won the Kentucky Derby, too, on 15 occasions.
Roadster won the Santa Anita Derby, which Justify also did before winning the '18 Kentucky Derby. Other recent horses to pull off that double were California Chrome in 2014 and I'll Have Another in 2012.
Early in the two-month tuneup, By My Standards gained some buzz by taking the Louisiana Derby. But it's been 23 years since a horse that won in New Orleans also won the Kentucky Derby (Grindstone in 1996).
In terms of points earned in the 2019 Road to the Kentucky Derby series, Tacitus leads with 150 points. Omaha Beach is a close second at 137.5.
MORE: How much will the Kentucky Derby winner make in 2019?
Which trainers can you trust in the 2019 Kentucky Derby?
Start with the now more legendary Bob Baffert, who has made history by training the last two Triple Crown winners, Justify in '18 and American Pharoah in '15. He has his hands all over the Kentucky Derby field, with Roadster, Game Winner and Improbable creating a formidable triple threat..
Jason Servis will again try to match his brother John (Smarty Jones in '04) in training a Derby winner, following up longshot Firenze Fire from '18 with a much stronger entry in Maximum Security.
Todd Pletcher, who has trained two past Derby winners, Always Dreaming in '17 and Super Saver in '10, has two more horses in the field. Of those, Cutting Humor is one to watch vs. Spinoff.
There's one more Derby-winning trainer in the field to join Baffert and Pletcher. That would be Claude McGaughey III, who's hoping that Code of Honor can rev up to match the victory of Orb from only six years ago.
MORE: All-time Kentucky Derby records
Which jockey in the field has had the most success at Churchill Downs?
Start with Mike Smith, fresh off winning on Justify to taking the reins of Omaha Beach for Mandella. Although it's impossible for horses to repeat, six jockeys have smelled consecutive roses at Kentucky Derby, including Victor Espinoza in 2014 and 2015 and Calvin Borel in 2009 and 2010. Smith is looking for his third Derby win overall, after also riding Giacomo in 2005.
John Velazquez, who won with Always Dreaming 2017, is in control of Code of Honor. While McGaughey goes for his second Derby win there, Velazquez looks to make it three.
There's only one more jockey who can can claim a Derby in the field: Joel Rosario, who brought home Orb for McGaughey. This time, he's with Baffert on Game Winner.
The non-Derby winners most likely to break through are brothers Irad Ortiz Jr. (Improbable) and Jose Ortiz (Tacitus). Each can boast recent victories in the longest Triple Crown race, the Belmont Stakes.
MORE: Best Kentucky Derby horse names since 2000
Which post position is the most advantageous?
In Kentucky Derby history, no post position has produced more winners than No. 5 with 10 over 144 years. No. 10 comes in second with nine winners. No. 5l ines up very well for Improbable, positioned where Always Dreaming won two years ago, California Chrome won in '14 and Audible placed in '18. No. 10 is longshot help for Cutting Humor, but it's been 14 years since a horse won from there (Giacomo in '05).
Next in line is post position No. 8, with 8 winners, including Mine That Bird in '09 and Barbaro in '06. Last year, Justify became the lucky seventh horse to win from No. 7, following Street Sense in, yep, you guessed it, 2007. That's welcome help for Tacitus and more in Maximum Security's favor.
Being near the rail has been bad news of late. It's been 32 years since Ferdinand won from No. 1, and 40 years since Affirmed won from No. 2. This year, Nos. 1 and 2 are tough breaks for War of Will (especially so) and Tax.
The sweet spot in recent years has been anywhere outside No. 12. In reverse order back to 2008, such winners include Nyquist (No. 13), American Pharoah (No. 18), Orb (No. 16), I'll Have Another (No. 19), Animal Kingdom (No. 16) and Big Brown (No. 20).
The one exception is No. 17, which has never produced a Derby winner in 40 tries, a curse Roadster will be challenged to reverse.
Kentucky Derby 2019 picks
Here is the projected order of finish at the 2019 Kentucky Derby:
| Win: Maximum Security |
| Place: Improbable |
| Show: Game Winner |
Maximum Security was helped by the draw and will be further helped by his experience to start the race strong, and benefits from no Omaha Beach, which was built to pull away from a crowd down the stretch. Luis Saez, who has finished no better than 7th in six previous Kentucky Derby rides, will take advantage of a talent horse out of the gate to hold off challenges at at the end.
Without Omaha Beach, Baffert is bound to get two of his trio in the top three. Improbable is best positioned to do so, as Game Winner and Roadster will battle on the outside with one likely fading and other still looking at a top-five finish.
