Who is the favorite to win 2024 Kentucky Derby? Fierceness, Sierra Leone neck-and-neck atop odds board

According to morning-line odds for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, two horses rate well ahead of the rest of the field. The early betting favorites are No. 17 Fierceness (5-to-2 odds) and No. 2 Sierra Leone (3-1).

No. 4 Catching Freedom is next on the Derby odds board at 8-1 at top betting sites, and then No. 8 Just a Touch and No. 11 Forever Young, each at 10-1.

Please note that morning-line odds are simply a prediction by the track handicapper as to what a horse’s closing odds will be, and in pari-mutuel betting, winning wagers are paid out per the horse's price at post time. In other words, even if you bet Fierceness to win when he's listed at 5-2, you would be paid at his closing odds, which may be higher or lower than his morning-line price.

So, while he’s the morning-line favorite, Fierceness may not go off as the “chalk.” It’s likely, however, that either Fierceness or Sierra Leone will boast the shortest price on Saturday, May 4 at 6:57 p.m. ET, post time for the 150th Run for the Roses.

Odds to win Kentucky Derby 2024

Here is the entire field of three-year-olds for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, including odds, post positions, jockeys and trainers. 

Also read: Horse-by-horse breakdown of Kentucky Derby | Who will win Kentucky Derby?

How often do favorites win in the Kentucky Derby?

Since 1908, favorites have won 40 of the 116 Kentucky Derbies (34.5%), according to TwinSpires.com. That win percentage is pretty much in line with horse racing overall.  

Recent winning favorites have included Justify (2018), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2014) and Orb (2013). Justify and American Pharoah went on to win the Triple Crown in their respective three-year-old campaigns.

What longshots have won the Kentucky Derby?

Donerail won the Run for the Roses in 1913 at 91-1, the longest odds of any Derby winner. Just two years ago, in 2022, Rich Strike paid off at 80-to-1 odds to become the second-longest shot to win the race.

Other recent longshot Derby winners include Mage last year at 15-to-1 odds, Country House in 2019 at 65-1, I'll Have Another in 2012 at 15-1, and Animal Kingdom in 2011 at 20-1.

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Odds of recent Kentucky Derby winners 

Here are winners of the past 20 Kentucky Derby, along with their payout on a $2 win ticket and their closing odds. In horse racing, the original $2 stake is included in the posted payout.

What post positions win most in the Kentucky Derby?

Since the starting gate was first used in the Kentucky Derby in 1930, horses coming out of the No. 5 post position have tallied 10 wins, the most of any PP. The No. 8 and No. 10 are tied for second, with nine winners apiece.

Ideally, a trainer wants his horse to draw a middle post – starting too far on the inside can lead to traffic issues, especially with horse and jockey trying to navigate a 20-horse field.

Worse, though, is an outside spot, evidenced by very few winners starting from the No. 17 post and beyond. In 2020, though, Churchill Downs introduced a 20-horse starting gate; in previous years, the Nos. 15-20 horses started from an auxiliary gate.

Still, no horse has ever won the Derby from the No. 17 post. Fierceness, the morning-line favorite, was originally slotted to start from the No. 17 post. While he'll still wear No. 17, he'll start from the No. 16 post because of the scratch of No. 9 Encino. 

Here’s a look back at how many Derby winners started from each post position:

• No. 1: 8
• No. 2: 7
• No. 3: 5
• No. 4: 5
• No. 5: 10    
• No. 6: 2    
• No. 7: 7    
• No. 8: 9  
• No. 9: 4    
• No. 10: 9    
• No. 11: 2    
• No. 12: 3    
• No. 13: 5    
• No. 14: 2    
• No. 15: 6    
• No. 16: 4    
• No. 17: 0    
• No. 18: 2    
• No. 19: 1    
• No. 20: 2