We struck out in the player props market yesterday, going 0-for-2. Perhaps we were a bit greedy chasing a couple of plus-money wagers, but the numbers pointed to those bets being smart decisions.
That’s the case with our first selection today, as we’re once again going plus-money hunting with Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene. The 25-year-old is off to a fantastic start to 2025 and draws a favorable matchup against the light-hitting Nationals.
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MLB Player Prop Picks for May 2
Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+128 at FanDuel)
We’re targeting over 7.5 Ks for Greene, a line he’s cleared in four of six starts this season. Greene has posted a K/9 rate of 10.6 through six outings, which is slightly below his career average. A closer look at the numbers suggests he’s actually been getting a little unlucky and is due for some positive regression.
Greene is generating a career-best 16.8% swinging strike rate. His called strike rate is also at a career-high of 15.7%, while his fastball and slider velocity have never been higher. The flamethrower is clocking in at 99.2 miles per hour with his heater, which is bad news for the Washington batters.
That lineup enters play with below-average offensive stats across the board. They typically strike out at a league-average rate, but that’s not the case historically versus Greene. Cincy's right-hander has a 45% strikeout rate against current Nationals batters, and is a strong bet to exceed 7.5 strikeouts tonight.
Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-115 at Bet365)
Our next wager is not of the plus-money variety, but it’s still full of value. We’re betting over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI for Seattle’s Jorge Polanco against the Rangers.
Polanco enters play as one of baseball’s hottest hitters. He’s slashing .500/.579/1.563 over the last seven days, with 5 home runs, 12 RBI, and 6 runs. That’s more production than most players generate in a month.
Polanco is on pace for career-highs in virtually every offensive category. He’s absolutely tearing the cover off the baseball, making hard contact at a 56.1% clip. For reference, that’s only 4% less than baseball Jesus himself, Shohei Ohtani.
Polanco will face Rangers righty Jack Leiter tonight. He’s got 1 hit off him in 5 career at-bats, but has been mashing right-handed pitching all season. Polanco is slashing .388/.425/.891 versus righties, with 9 home runs. Tonight’s game will take place at Globe Life Field in Texas, a top-three venue for power hitters.
Polanco has cleared this prop line in six of his past seven coming in, and in two of three contests versus the Rangers this season.
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