USA vs. Germany women’s basketball odds, prop bets, predictions: Group C supremacy at stake at 2024 Olympics

Through two games of the 2024 Olympic women's basketball tournament, the United States has ridden the brilliance of A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart, who are averaging a combined 47.5 points and 20.5 rebounds, to a 2-0 record in Group C. Germany defeated Belgium and Japan by double-digits, too, setting up a battle of unbeatens to close out the preliminary round of the competition.

Odds at top sportsbook sites have the U.S. laying a big spread against the Germans. 

Team USA comes off a hard-fought victory over Belgium in which it never came close to covering a 23.5-point spread, leading by as few as four points halfway through the third quarter and by just seven with 6:07 remaining. The Americans won 87-74 despite losing the turnover battle, but imposed their will on the boards, 48-28. They’ve outrebounded their opponents 104-55 and registered 16 offensive rebounds in each win, helping overcome 9-for-34 3-point shooting.

Germany was the first team that the USA faced upon arriving in Europe after losing to Team WNBA in the All-Star Game on July 20, but a much tougher game is expected in this Sunday rematch (11:15 AM ET, USA) at Lille’s Pierre Mauroy Stadium. Both teams will advance to the quarterfinals, which begin on Wednesday in Paris. 

USA vs. Germany odds at Bet365: Spread, moneyline, total for Sunday's women's basketball at Paris Games 

Betting lines have moved since opening numbers were posted. Team USA opened as a 19.5-point favorite. The total was set at 160. The Americans were priced at -3200 on the moneyline, while backing Germany to pull the outright upset opened +1400. 

Here are 2024 Olympic betting odds from Bet365 Sportsbook for the USA vs. Germany Group C match as of Friday.

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USA betting news and analysis

Wilson and Stewart are a combined 38-for-62 from the field (61.3%), but their teammates haven’t been as effective. No one else scored in double-figures against Belgium, although Jewell Loyd bounced back from a scoreless opener with eight points, and Sabrina Ionescu produced a game-high five assists off the bench while connecting on a back-breaking 3-pointer in the final quarter.

Starting PG Chelsea Gray played only nine minutes, and Diana Taurasi got 14, as head coach Cheryl Reeve went to more dynamic options against Belgium. No lineup change is expected against Germany. Gray had 13 assists in the opener, but Ionescu, Loyd, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young may ultimately play more, alongside Alyssa Thomas, who ranks second in the WNBA in assists and has served as first player off the bench.

Wilson had 19 points and 14 rebounds to lead the U.S. to an 84-57 win over Germany on July 23, and the Americans got the better of their counterparts on the glass, 51-43. Team USA’s defense held Germany to 29.4 percent shooting. Stewart added 15 points, six rebounds and a team-high five assists. Loyd led all reserves with 11 points.

Germany betting news and analysis

The biggest difference in this matchup between Germany and the U.S. and the one played less than two weeks ago is that forward Satou Sabally is better equipped to succeed. The Dallas Wings standout hasn’t played in the WNBA this season, but is gutting it out through a shoulder issue that required a procedure back in February. 

Sabally scored 33 points against Japan, the eighth-highest total in Olympic history, shooting 11-for-17. Sister Nyara Sabally plays for the New York Liberty alongside terrific wing Leonie Fiebich. Another center, 6-foot-4 Luisa Geiselsoder, teams with promising 20-year-old Frieda Buhner to add more depth up front.

Point guard Alexis Peterson had a great career at Syracuse and spent one season as a reserve with Seattle in 2017, so she’s well-equipped to run the show with Fiebich. Lina Sontag, who plays for UCLA, should also see backcourt minutes.

USA vs. Germany prop bets from DraftKings 

Here is a sampling of USA vs. Germany prop bets from DraftKings.

• USA team total: Over 89.5 -120, Under 89.5 -110
• Belgium team total: Over 69.5 -120 Under 69.5 -110
• 1H Spread: USA -11 -115, Germany +11 -115, Total 80 O/U -115
• To go to OT: Yes +2200
• Winning Margin 3-way: USA to win by 6+ -1600, Either Team to win by 5 or less +650, Germany to win by 6+ +1900

USA vs. Germany prediction: Expect a nail-biter

Both teams expect to be sharper than they were in London, since the U.S. has had more practice time and Sabally is far more confident in the strength of her shoulder and looking healthy. It’s unlikely she’ll shoot 3-for-17 again. Fiebich, who was having an excellent run with the Liberty before the Olympic break, is the x-factor for Germany’s chances of pulling an upset. 

If Belgium was able to hang with the U.S., Germany should be able to take this down to the closing minutes -- unless Ionescu, Loyd, Plum or Kahleah Copper is able to find an offensive rhythm that has thus far proven elusive. Look for the Americans to win a tight game, but Germany to cover this number.