USA vs. Nigeria women’s basketball odds, prop bets, predictions: Americans overpriced in 2024 Olympic quarterfinal?

The Nigerian women have made history in Paris by becoming the first basketball team from Africa, male or female, to reach the Olympic quarterfinals. The United States aims to ensure that accomplishment ends in a great learning experience and nothing else, as Team USA begins in the knockout stages in pursuit of an eighth consecutive gold medal.

Odds at top sports betting sites show another large point spread in favor of the US women.

A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart dominated the group stage, leading the U.S. to double-digit wins over Japan, Belgium and Germany, posting a plus-58 point differential. Spain was the only other nation to finish unbeaten, but Team USA scored 48 more points than Belgium and China, the next two highest-scoring teams in the tournament.

The Americans registered their best performance in pulling away from Germany for an 87-68 win in a battle of Group C unbeatens and look to post another lopsided victory in Wednesday’s fourth and final quarterfinal (3:30 PM ET, USA) at Paris’ Accor Arena. Team USA last faced Nigeria in an international elimination game in the 2018 FIBA World Cup, winning 71-40 in the quarterfinals. Stewart led the U.S. with 19 points and five assists.

USA vs. Nigeria odds: Spread, moneyline, total for 2024 Olympic women’s basketball quarterfinal

Here are 2024 Olympic betting odds for the USA vs. Nigeria Olympic quarterfinal at Bet365 Sportsbook.

Team USA opened as a 27-point favorite. The total was set at 157.5.

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USA betting news and analysis

Oddsmakers expect the other three quarterfinals to be single-digit affairs, so major challenges lie ahead for the U.S. Head coach Cheryl Reeve has found an effective frontcourt rotation in trusting her star from the Minnesota Lynx, Napheesa Collier, and reigning WNBA assist leader Alyssa Thomas, next to Stewart, Wilson and backup center Brittney Griner up front. 

Reeve’s guard rotation isn’t as clear cut, so she’ll be riding the hot hand behind starters Chelsea Gray and Diana Taurasi. Both veterans played only six minutes against Germany, as Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, Sabrina Ionescu, Kahleah Copper and Jewell Loyd divided up the rest of the minutes. Young finished with team-highs of 19 points in 27 minutes, while Plum and Ionescu each dished out five assists. 

Team USA shot 9-for-21 from 3-point range, but all but one of the makes came from Young and Copper. The rest of the team combined to shoot 1-for-9, so Reeve’s mandate before the semifinals and medal matches is to identify which guards are most likely to come through at both ends of the floor. Team USA averaged 92 points while surrendering 72.7 over their first three Olympic wins.

Nigeria betting news and analysis

Before beating Canada, Nigeria also upset Australia 75-62 and fell to France 75-54. Despite two victories, it finished the preliminary round only plus-one, averaging 69.3 while surrendering 69.

New Jersey-born guard Ezinne Kalu, a 32-year-old who plays in France, has led Nigeria in scoring in all three contests and averages 19.3 points per game. Backcourt mate Promise Amukamara also plays in France and has averaged a team-best 6.7 assists. Captain Amy Okonkwo, Italy-based Pallas Kunaiyi-Akpanah, and Spain-based Murjanatu Musa are the top frontcourt standouts. France-based Okonkwo played at USC and TCU, Kunaiyi-Akpanah played at Northwestern, and backup Adebola Adeyeye currently plays at Kentucky.

Elizabeth Balogun, a former ACC Freshman of the Year who began her career at Louisville and also played at Georgia Tech and Duke, has emerged as Nigeria’s x-factor, while two-time ex-CAA Player of the Year Nicole Enabosi (Delaware) is a key reserve. Head coach Rena Wakama, who at 32 years old is a few months younger than Kalu, is the first female head coach in Nigeria’s history and serves as an assistant at Tulane.

USA vs. Nigeria prop bets at DraftKings 

Here is a sampling of USA vs. Nigeria prop bets from DraftKings.

• USA team total: Over 92.5 -110, Under 92.5 -120
• Nigeria team total: Over 65.5 -105 Under 65.5 -125
• Breanna Stewart points + rebounds + assists: Over 27.5 -135, Under 27.5 +105
• A’ja Wilson points: Over 20.5 -110, Under 20.5 -120
• Alyssa Thomas points + rebounds + assists: Over 13.5 -135, Under 13.5 +105
• Ezinne Kalu points: Over 14.5 -120, Under 14.5 -110
• Jackie Young points: Over 9.5 +100, Under 9.5 -130

USA vs. Nigeria prediction: Loyd should break out in American rout in Paris

The United States has edges everywhere but hasn’t beaten an opponent by more than 27 points in this Olympic cycle. It beat Germany by exactly that number in the lone exhibition before the Paris Games and topped Japan by 26 in the most lopsided result in the preliminary round.

Nigeria’s lone loss came by 21, and team members will look to go out with their heads held high after their historic run, so expect that they’ll play this out for all 40 minutes.

Look for a higher-scoring game than expected since the U.S. seeks a better offensive flow. Loyd should have a breakout game off the bench.