NFL Week 12 best bets & player props: Broncos rock Raiders, Bucs bash Giants, Steelers-Browns goes over

As we turkey-trot toward Thanksgiving and start preparing our Christmas lists, it's feeling more and more like we all made the 'nice' list this year.

The Sporting News' best bets have been beautiful, with a sparkling record of hits over the first nine weeks. We're back with a fresh batch of picks for you ahead of Week 11, which features some marquee matchups and seven divisional tilts.

Coming off another loaded slate, this column went 2-1 with its locks but just 5-5 on the weekend (before MNF). Not our best showing overall, but we're still 68-53-1 on the season. We'll take 15 wins over .500 any day. 

MORE NFL: Week 12 odds, lines, totals | Playoff picture

Let's get to the top moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop wagers on BetMGM and Caesars for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, have fun, and good luck with Thanksgiving preparations!

JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/unders | Player props

NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Against the spread (ATS)

All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. 

Broncos -5 at Raiders (-110 on BetMGM)

We had the Dolphins -6.5 over the Raiders last week, and it worked so well that we're betting against Vegas again. This time, we've got the Broncos taking care of business against Antonio Pierce's squad in Sin City. 

When will people start believing in Bo Nix and the Broncos!? Nix has 522 passing yards, six passing touchdowns and zero interceptions over Denver's past two games. He has the Broncos right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card picture, while also inserting himself into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. 

Combined with Sean Payton's coaching and Denver's elite defense, this Denver team is on a different stratosphere than the 2-8 Raiders, who have been walloped by 15-plus points in two straight games.

Vegas has reached some rocky roads. The Pierce head-coaching experiment has failed miserably, and so has every QB who has started for the Raiders. Mark Davis's squad has dropped six straight, and its eight losses have been by an average margin of over 13 points. This could be an epic beatdown.

SCORE PREDICTION: Broncos 27, Raiders 13

Other Week 12 spreads worth a look: Vikings -3.5 at Bears (-110 on Caesars); Titans +7.5 at Texans (BetMGM)

NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Moneyline

Buccaneers halftime/full-time moneyline at Giants (-110 on BetMGM)

Here's a unique way to bet a favorite without taking on a big point spread or eating a ton of juice. The Bucs are -225 favorites, but we get them at -110 by mini-parlaying their halftime and full-game moneylines. Now all we need is a lead after the first two frames and a W at the end of the game.

No scoring margin is needed except for a one-point lead after each half. We'll take that on the road, with Baker Mayfield and company coming off a bye and New York turning to Tommy DeVito under center. The Giants are not a very good football team, and Brian Daboll's days in New York appear to be numbered.

HALFTIME/FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bucs 17, Giants 13 (half); Bucs 31, Giants 26 (final)

Other Week 12 moneylines to consider: 49ers +105 at Packers (Caesars); Seahawks -110 vs. Cardinals (BetMGM)

NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Over/under totals

Steelers at Browns: OVER 36 (-110 on Caesars)

We sniffed out the value of this Thursday Night Football matchup nice and early. At last glance, 62 percent of the early over/under bets for this one have been on the under, so we're going against the grain and betting the over. 

For starters, this number already feels too low. In the three games Jameis Winston has started since taking over for injured (and awful) QB Deshaun Watson, Jame-O has thrown six touchdowns. The Browns have averaged 17.6 points per game with Winston, and they even got a huge upset win over the Ravens four weeks ago.

The Steelers have also been a much more dynamic offense since changing quarterbacks. In four games with Russell Wilson under center, Pittsburgh has averaged 27.3 PPG and, like Cleveland, thrown for six TDs. Don't let the narrative of the short week and the tough defenses get into your head — this one should feature some decent scoring. 

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Steelers 23, Browns 20

Other strong Week 12 over/under bets: Dolphins at Patriots: OVER 46 (-110); Raiders UNDER 18 team total vs. Broncos (shop around)

NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Top player props & game props

De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins vs. Patriots: OVER 103.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)

This number may seem high, but dive deeper into the recent trends and you'll realize that it's very doable. The Patriots have surrendered 142.5 all-purpose yards per game to running backs this season, and they have somehow given up 130 rushing yards per game at home.

Achane, meanwhile, has been on fire since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his third career concussion. The stud RB has averaged 106.3 total yards per game since Tua's activation from IR, he's never had less competition for backfield touches, and Miami is a seven-point favorite to beat New England. We're Achane stans this weekend. 

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers at Ravens: OVER 70.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM

McConkey has been the No. 1 benefactor to Justin Herbert's midseason breakout, as the rookie has unequivocally emerged as Herbs' top target. Over the past four weeks, McConkey has hauled in 19-of-24 targets for 350 yards and two TDs. That's 87.5 receiving yards per game, for those who don't have their calculator app handy. 

Now Ladd and his lads get to face the Ravens' pass-funnel defense, which has surrendered an NFL-high 284.5 passing yards per game and 189.5 receiving yards to wideouts per game this season. Look at what No. 1 receivers have done to Baltimore over the past four weeks: George Pickens 89 yards, Ja'Marr Chase 264, Courtland Sutton 122, Cedric Tillman 99. 

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs at Panthers: Anytime TD scorer (+115 on BetMGM)

Kelce seemed pretty fired up about his squad's first loss of the season, going off on a rant about him and his teammates needing to be more prepared week in and week out. The 36-year-old tight end finished the L to Buffalo with just two catches for eight yards, one of the worst games of the future Hall-of-Famer's storied career. 

It's rare for Kelce and Patrick Mahomes to log two duds in a row, and the hapless Panthers defense is a great matchup for a contender that needs to get back on track. Carolina has allowed seven TDs to tight ends, tied for most in the NFL, so plus odds for Kelce to find paydirt seems like an early Christmas gift.