Tennessee vs. Creighton odds, prediction, betting trends for 2024 March Madness Sweet 16 matchup

Although they’re unquestionably strangers, it would be a mistake to say these programs have never met -- Tennessee and Creighton squared off in Knoxville in January 1937. The Vols won that game 34-28 and look to stay perfect against the Bluejays to earn only the school’s second-ever trip to the Elite Eight.

Tennessee (26-8 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) is favored (), but Creighton (25-9, 19-15) won in the Sweet 16 just last season, putting themselves one step from the Final Four for the second time in school history. These teams will know if they’ll have to deal with top-seed Purdue or surging Gonzaga by the time they tip off late Friday night in Detroit (10:09 PM ET/TBS), but for now, all of their attention is focused on the other. 

Because the schools haven’t played in over 87 years, preparation will go a long way in deciding who comes out on top at Little Caesars Arena, since familiarity doesn’t come into play. Coaching is set to be a major factor, casting a large spotlight on veteran leaders Rick Barnes and Greg McDermott. This is a battle of contrasting styles given that the Vols want to lock you up and the Bluejays want to get out, run, and fire up 3-pointers.

Here’s everything to know about betting on Tennessee vs. Creighton, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Sweet 16 game.

Check and bet: Best NC sportsbook promos | Sports betting bonuses nationwide | March Madness odds, TV schedule, betting promos, results

Tennessee vs. Creighton odds

Tennessee is priced as the short favorite, according to our favorite betting sites for March Madness. Here are live odds from top sportsbooks.

This is the matchup oddsmakers view as the second-tightest call in the Sweet 16 behind only Iowa State-Illinois.

Creighton has been an underdog in only three of their 34 games  – at Marquette and in two showdowns with defending champion UConn. It went 1-2 straight up and ATS in those contests. The Bluejays have seen one only total in a game they’ve been involved in dip under 140. Tennessee has been a favorite in all but five of its 34 games this season. 

All of this round's games: Sweet 16 odds, ATS predictions, updated futures | Women's Sweet 16 odds and updated NCAA Tournament futures

Three betting trends to watch 

• Tennessee failed to cover in its 62-58 second-round win over Texas but has been reliable against the number since the beginning of February. The Vols are on a 9-5 run on covers.
• The Bluejays reached the Sweet 16 thanks to a double-OT win over Oregon and are 9-2 straight up and ATS over their last 11, covering in all their wins since Feb. 10. That came on the heels of a 3-11 ATS run over two months.
• The OVER has gone 11-5 in Creighton’s last 16 contests, but only got there on Saturday night due to the extra sessions. Tennessee has seen the UNDER prevail in eight of its last 10 games.

More Sweet 16 betting previews: UNC vs. Alabama | Duke vs. Houston | NC State vs. Marquette | Illinois vs. Iowa State | Gonzaga vs. Purdue | Clemson vs. Arizona

Tennessee key players

The arrival of Dalton Knecht (21.1 ppg), a grad transfer from Northern Colorado, has turned the Vols into a national title contender. Due to his size and shooting prowess, the 6-foot-6 wing has transformed himself into a potential NBA lottery pick and emerged as a consensus first-team All-American, picking up SEC Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year honors.

New Yorker Zakai Zeigler runs the show, having fully recovered from a knee injury suffered late last season. He played all 40 minutes in Tennessee’s win over Texas and is a National Defensive Player of the Year finalist. Wing Josiah Jordan-James is a powerfully built glue guy, while bigs Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka are tough rebounders and rim protectors who will have to overcome a size disadvantage in this contest.

Creighton key players

The Bluejays rely on 3-point shooting more than most, connected on 15-for-39 last time out and gained separation against the Ducks in the second overtime thanks to 3-pointers from sniper Steven Ashworth and 7-foot-2 center Ryan Kalkbrenner. The big man is the key to their defense and makes life easier on everyone with his screening.

Guard Trey Alexander, wing Baylor Scheierman and Ashworth are all capable of taking over games offensively and can get scalding hot from the perimeter, although Alexander’s strengths lie more in the mid-range. That quartet scored 78 of Creighton’s 86 points against Oregon. Mason Miller, son of ex-NBA star Mike Miller, can be an ex-factor with his size, shooting and smarts as the team’s fifth starter but finished with just one point last Saturday.

Best individual matchup: Dalton Knecht vs. Baylor Scheierman

Knecht shot just 5-for-18 against the Longhorns, but Tennessee was able to overcome shooting 3-for-25 from 3-point range. Knecht missed seven of his eight looks from beyond the arc, but the Fargo native can get into the paint and commands a ton of attention.

Scheierman is similar to Knecht in that he transferred to a power program from the Summit League, where he was Player of the Year in ‘22. He’s not as powerfully built but is an exceptional shooter.

Knecht will likely be able to prevail in this matchup due to his strength, but Scheierman can give his team a big boost if he can make his counterpart work on the defensive end.

Tennessee vs. Creighton stat to know

Creighton ranks fifth nationally with 10.7 makes per game and sixth in attempts with 29.3, so how it adjusts to a new arena’s sight lines will play a large role. Tennessee ranks 29th in 3-point percentage defense, allowing teams to shoot just 30.9 percent from beyond the arc. Given how poorly the Vols shot it against Texas, they likely can’t afford to allow the Bluejays to find a rhythm from beyond the arc. Tennessee ranked seventh and Creighton finished 11th in the NCAA NET rankings, and both enjoyed eight Quad 1 wins, so this is as evenly matched as it gets.

Tennessee vs. Creighton prediction

Between pre-game prep and in-game adjustments, Barnes and McDermott will have to be at their best to try and make the difference for their teams. Knecht will be the best player on the floor, but if the Vols shoot it as poorly as they did against Texas, I wouldn’t expect them to survive again.

Look for this one to come down to the final seconds, and for Knecht or Zeigler to generate a game-winning play. Taking the points is advisable in this type of matchup, particularly at a neutral site. If you like the Vols, a moneyline play makes sense. A play on the low side is my favorite call in this pairing.

Prediction: Tennessee 69, Creighton 67. Creighton (+2.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (143.5).