Rockets vs. Warriors Odds, Picks and Predictions for Game 6

Steph Curry and Golden State try to become just the seventh 7 seed to advance to the NBA’s second round Friday when they host Houston in Game 6.

Only one other 7 seed has advanced since 2010 (Lakers in 2023 against Memphis).

Golden State went 19-25 against the spread at home this season and is a 5.5-point favorite.

Rockets at Warriors Game 6 Odds

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Golden State has gone 43-42-3 against the spread this season, while Houston has gone 45-40-2. Houston is 3-2 against the spread in this series, but down 3-2 where it matters the most.

Only one of the five games in this series was close. The average margin of victory in the series is 11.4 points.

I’ve seen the total anywhere from 203.5 to 205. Golden State is 44-44 over/under (how’s that for perfect?) and Houston is 46-39-2. There might be some value here on the total. The average number for the five games is 208.4, which would tell you the over is the play.

Golden State is 19-0 against Western Conference teams in the playoffs after a loss, but the Warriors have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games at home.

Rockets at Warriors Game 6 Preview

The first five games have all followed a similar script. Houston starts out strong defensively and builds a lead. The Rockets have led at halftime in four of the five games.

But then the Warriors hang around and get going in the fourth quarter. They have outscored Houston in every fourth quarter of this series. Curry has led all players in this series, averaging 23.4 points. Jimmy Butler has been good, not great. Remember, he missed a game with an injury. He’s averaging 15.8 points this series. In his career, “Playoff Jimmy” averages 21.1.

Houston has shot better from the floor: 45.4 percent to 43 percent than the Warriors, and shot better from deep: 37.3 percent from three, compared to 35 percent, but the free throw line has been their issue. Houston has shot 69 percent from the line while Golden State has shot 76 percent.

Golden State took the unusual step of conceding Game 5 when Houston went up big in the third quarter. Curry only scored 13 points and was the only Warriors starter in double figures. Draymond Green played only 18 minutes. Was that a smart strategy by Golden State? Or will it give Houston more confidence heading into Game 6?

Rockets at Warriors Game 6 Prediction

My instinct on this series when it started was that the younger, fresher Rockets would find a way to beat Golden State, kind of like what the Wolves did to the Lakers.

It hasn’t quite played out that way. Golden State has been able to defend Houston and frustrate them, particularly Rockets shooting guard Jalen Green, who has been held to 14 points a game this series after averaging 21 during the season.

There are many reasons to like Golden State to win. Clearly, they have the edge in experience, but we’re on to Game 6 now, there’s nothing that can surprise Houston anymore.

Houston still checks a lot of boxes for me, and I don’t like what Golden State did in Game 5, pulling their starters. Get cute, and it often comes back to bite you. I will stick with my first instinct and take Houston with the points.

The pick: Houston +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)