Alex Karaban shared his news Tuesday with a graphically designed post on social media, which included all the appropriate flowers for teammates, coaches and UConn fans, and, of course, the now-cliche declaration he intends to “run it back” as a Huskies senior.
This would have been the process whether or not he’d initially declared his intention to enter the NBA Draft. In the world of college basketball, a senior season from a highly accomplished player is something to be celebrated, something increasingly rare and –
Wait, no, it’s not.
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It’s not rare any longer.
You never again will see a player with Cooper Flagg’s talent and profile play as a college junior or senior. That ended with Patrick Ewing in 1985. But you’re no longer seeing players with a resume like 2019 stars Jaren Harper of Auburn and Dedric Lawson of Kansas exit college basketball for good despite meager prospects of being drafted. Karaban will be back even though he's already gone through a Senior Day celebration.
You’ve probably heard plenty about the supposedly negative effects of NIL payments and the immediate eligibility component of the NCAA transfer portal on the sport of college basketball. But the release of the NBA’s preliminary early entry list, which coincided with Karaban’s decision to stay at UConn, offered a substantial statement about the competitive strength of the sport.
There were 106 players on the NBA’s preliminary list, which includes not just projected lottery picks like Flagg and Ace Bailey but also those merely exploring options like Kentucky’s Otega Oweh, Wisconsin’s Nate Blackwell and Houston’s Milos Uzan. That’s the lowest total of initial early entrants since 2015. There were 353 such players as recently as 2021 and 242 only two years ago.
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We saw similar numbers in football. There were 70 early NFL Draft entrants when the league released its initial list Jan. 16. That’s down from 135 in 2021 and 103 in 2019.
In the latter part of the previous decade, before Name/Image/Likeness opportunities were opened to college athletes through the courts and, as a result, accepted into the NCAA rulebook, there were scores of examples of athletes in basketball and football who left college because they felt an understandable need to earn money from their athletic talents during the short window those abilities would remain marketable.
Harper averaged 15.3 points in his final season at Auburn and was a huge part of the Tigers reaching the 2019 Final Four. But he also was a 5-11 guard. He was not expected to be selected by an NBA, and nothing he did during the pre-draft process changed that perception. He has played just 16 NBA games and now is a star with Hapoel Jerusalem.
Lawson was a second-team All-American for The Sporting News in 2019, when KU went 26-10 and lost to Harper’s Tigers in the NCAA Tournament second round. He was not selected in the draft, either, and now plays professionally in China with the Xinjiang Flying Tigers.
Each would have found his senior season to be worth an easy seven figures in today’s college game.
And each would have been motivated to find his appropriate place within the game to maximize earning potential. This is why there’s a lot less “exploring” of the draft process among current players. There are some whose positions are secure and can make it clear to their current schools that they plan to return but want to experience the process. The majority are remaining with their colleges – perhaps even at the school’s request, given the significant amount of money invested in all of them – or are more invested in the search for the best possible college situation.
There are players now who never will earn as much in a single professional season as they will in 2025-26 as collegians. It’s important they acknowledge that possibility, because proper management of the sort of wealth being gained can buy a lot of freedom in later life: to pursue one’s passion rather than the most prudent path, to concentrate on family life as much as (or more than) work.
The idea, though, that all of this is calamitous to college athletics is unsupported by the facts. The 11 College Football Playoff games averaged 15.6 million viewers, a combined audience of more than 170 million. The four first-round, on-campus games averaged 96,901 spectators in stadium, and the championship game, and the final between Ohio State and Notre Dame drew 77,660 to Atlanta.
The NCAA Championship won by Florida over Houston last month drew 18.1 million TV viewers, the best since 2019. The first two rounds were the highest rated since 1993.
There are elements of the current system that make it less tenable for the coaches and, in some cases, athletes. The supposition exists that the significant roster changes will lead to less interest, less engagement; it’s a persistent refrain through the same social media venues Karaban used to declare his return to UConn, where he started for NCAA title winners in 2023 and 2024.
He’ll be back with the Huskies in 2025-26, and all the evidence indicates the fans complaining the about NIL and the transfer portal either will be among those watching him – or won’t be missed.