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Kentucky Derby weather updates: Will rain in forecast impact Churchill Downs track conditions?

Dan Treacy

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Kentucky Derby weather updates: Will rain in forecast impact Churchill Downs track conditions? image

April showers might bring May flowers, but the first Saturday in May could have plenty of both at Churchill Downs.

Rain is in the forecast for the 151st Kentucky Derby, adding a new challenge for the 20 horses and their jockeys in the iconic race.

Weather has largely been a non-issue at the Kentucky Derby over the last five years, with rain holding off in 2024, but the race was heavily impacted by rain and the resulting mud in both 2018 and 2019. That kind of weather is unavoidable in the spring, and Mother Nature could make herself known again on Saturday.

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Here are the latest weather updates and forecasts for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. 

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Kentucky Derby weather updates

Saturday, May 3

It's rained throughout the day in Louisville, creating muddy track conditions, but the rain is expected to clear out before the race.

Forecasts expect the final band of rain, at least for a few hours, to pass by 5 p.m., setting up a stretch of cloudy but dry weather throughout the evening. While the derby might avoid rain, mud will still be a factor. 

The Knicks Go Overnight Stakes gave a glimpse into just how muddy the track conditions are as of the early afternoon.

With temperatures barely touching 60 degrees in Louisville, fans will hope there can at least be a break in the rain close to the 6:57 p.m. post time.

Friday, May 2

Get ready for rain in Louisville. There is a 90 percent chance of showers on Kentucky Derby day, according to the National Weather Service, with a chance of thunderstorms as well after 11 a.m. 

The chance of rain remains high all the way through 11 p.m. With post time set for 6:57 p.m., the track could be muddy if rain does fall throughout the day. 

The Weather Channel forecasts a 100 percent chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday but offers a more optimistic outlook for the Kentucky Derby with only a 40 percent chance of rain at 7 p.m. Still, with rain likely in the hours leading up to the race, the track conditions are not expected to be ideal. 

Louisville is also at risk of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, so Churchill Downs workers might have to scramble just to get the track in a good spot before more rain arrives on Saturday. 

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Kentucky Derby weather forecast

As of Friday, the National Weather Service is currently forecasting a 90 percent chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday, with the high temperature near 66 degrees (F). Fans hoping for a warm, sunny day at Churchill Downs look like they will get anything but that, with the hope that the rain holds off enough just to make the conditions tolerable. 

The Weather Channel forecasts the temperature as 61 degrees at 7 p.m., three minutes after post time, with only a 40 percent chance of rain. From 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., however, the chances of rain exceed 60 percent.

Churchill Downs dealt with clouds and passing drizzle at last year's Kentucky Derby, but rain hasn't heavily impacted the race since muddy days in both 2018 and 2019. 

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Dan Treacy

Dan Treacy is a content producer for Sporting News, joining in 2022 after graduating from Boston University. He founded @allsportsnews on Instagram in 2012 and has written for Lineups and Yardbarker.