After starting the 2024 season with a 2-6 record, the Miami Dolphins have won four of their last five following an overtime 32-26 victory in Week 14 over the New York Jets.
Improbably, they can still make the playoffs. But this Sunday's matchup against the Houston Texans will be a must-win.
Currently, the Dolphins are two games behind the Denver Broncos for the final AFC Wild Card spot. They are listed by NFL.com as holding a 13 percent chance to make the postseason.
It is worth noting, though, that the Broncos have an exceptionally tough schedule the rest of the way. They play the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday, who themselves are lurking just outside the playoff picture at 6-7, and then face the 8-5 Los Angeles Chargers and the high-powered Cincinnati Bengals offense -- both on the road -- before ending their season hosting the 12-1 Kansas City Chiefs.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, have it fairly easy after this weekend if they can beat Houston. They close out the year facing three of the season's biggest disappointments in the San Francisco 49ers (6-7), Cleveland Browns (3-10) and the Jets (also 3-10) again, and should be favored in all three.
Even the Texans have not quite been what they were expected to be this year, as their 8-5 record is partially inflated by a weak AFC South division. With C.J. Stroud experiencing a sophomore slump while star WR offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs is out for the year with a torn ACL, Houston's offense ranks a middling 18th in the league in yards per game.
The Dolphins are one spot behind them, but have picked it up as of late. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in the past four weeks, and Tyreek Hill has gotten going again with a receiving score in four of his last five games.
Miami is in prime position to upset the Texans, who are favored by three points. This will be the type of high-stakes, late-season game the Dolphins have struggled to win in recent years, and with a loss likely eliminating any realistic playoff hopes, now is their opportunity to change some narratives.
