UConn vs. USC odds, prediction, betting trends for 2024 Women's Elite 8 matchup

The final ticket to the NCAA Women’s Final Four will be up for grabs at Portland’s Moda Center on Monday night. Although the LSU-Iowa rematch is the marquee matchup between the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds, USC squaring off with UConn offers plenty of star power. 

Star freshman JuJu Watkins leads Portland Regional 3 No. 1 seed USC (29-5) against UConn (32-5) (9:15 p.m. ET/ESPN), with the winner squaring off against the Tigers-Hawkeyes survivor on Friday night. Only unbeaten South Carolina (36-0) and recently eliminated Texas (33-5) have more victories than the Huskies, who are back to national prominence with star guard Paige Bueckers leading the way after tearing her ACL in August 2022, leading to UConn missing the Final Four for the first time since 2008. 

USC is 15-1 since the beginning of February, losing only to Utah and ultimately winning the Pac-12 Tournament title after finishing second to Stanford in the regular season standings. Given the collective strength of their league, the Trojans have been battle-tested, starting the season with a win over eventual Big Ten regular-season champ Ohio State. They’re seeking their first Final Four appearance since 1986.

UConn has lost to both teams that have already qualified for the Final Four, South Carolina and NC State, in addition to ranked powers UCLA, Texas and Notre Dame. All five setbacks came by double-digits. The Huskies are 15-1 since Jan. 31, and won the Big East Tournament after finishing conference play with a perfect 18-0 record. Their tightest game was a 15-point win over St. John’s. They’re seeking their 23rd Final Four appearance.

Here’s everything to know about betting on UConn vs. USC, including updated odds, trends, and our prediction for this Elite Eight game.

UConn vs. USC odds

Here are the latest college basketball betting odds for UConn vs. USC at top-rated sportsbooks:

The Trojans are an underdog despite being the No. 1 seed in the region and coming in far more tested due to the collective strength of their league. USC defeated Baylor 74-70 in the regional semifinals as a 4-point favorite. UConn closed as an 8.5-point favorite against Duke on Saturday and won 53-45, coming nowhere near the projected total of 126.5. USC plays at a faster tempo than the Huskies, ranking 35th nationally in scoring (75.0 ppg), but actually averages fewer points since Geno Aurienna’s team comes in at 79.9 points per game (14th).

Three betting trends to watch 

• UConn has yet to cover a game in the NCAA Tournament. Although it narrowly missed out against Duke on Saturday, it came nowhere close in its conquests of Jackson State and Syracuse in the first two rounds.
• USC was a 33-point favorite in its 87-55 win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the first round, but did cover in its 73-55 blowout of Kansas to reach the Sweet 16 as it closed as a 10.5-point chalk.
• UConn outscored its foes in the Big East Tournament 220-124 and is beating teams by an average of 23.5 points, which is one reason it’s favored here. USC’s margin of victory is just 13 points, but it has played a top-five schedule. UConn is narrowly inside the top 20.

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UConn key players

Bueckers (21.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.8 apg) leads the Huskies in scoring and ranks second in rebounds and assists. More on her below. Backcourt mate Nika Muhl (6.8 ppg, 6.4 apg) is a pass-first point guard who shoots nearly 40 percent from 3-point range. Six-foot-3 Aaliyah Edwards (17.5 ppg, 9.3 rpg) is the primary big, while KK Arnold, a freshman, added 12 points and five steals in having a huge impact against Duke. Auriemma typically plays just six ladies since would-be starters Azzi Fudd and Caroline Ducharme were lost to season-ending injuries in addition to a number of other would-be contributors.

USC key players

Watkins (27.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg) was the nation’s top recruit and has more than lived up to the hype. We’ll discuss her matchup with Bueckers below. McKenzie Forbes, a transfer from Harvard who started her career at Cal, was the Pac-12 Tournament MVP. A tall guard who can fill it up from the perimeter, her emergence helped make the difference in leading USC to a championship in Las Vegas. Six-foot-4 center Rayah Marshall is a menace on the glass and has eight games with at least 15 rebounds, which includes a season-high 18 in the Pac-12 title game. Seniors Kayla Padilla (Penn) and Kaitlyn Davis (Columbia) are Ivy League transfers who have played their roles brilliantly.

Best individual matchup: Paige Bueckers vs. Juju Watkins

While Caitlin Clark vs. Angel Reese get the headlines in Iowa-LSU, those two won’t defend each other much, if at all. Bueckers and Watkins should see plenty of one another. Bueckers may have had her 2021-22 season marred by injuries and missed all of last season, but she’s a former Naismith Award winner, a two-time Big East Player of the Year and two-time NCAA All-Tourney. There’s no question she’s the more decorated of these two elite recruits, but Watkins won’t back down.

The LA native finished with 30 points against Baylor on Saturday but shot it poorly, finishing 8-for-28, including 2-for-11 from 3-point range. She’s actually in a bit of a slump dating back to a nine-point game in the Pac-12 Tournament Championship in which she shot 2-for-15, committing six turnovers. Watkins can still impact the game due to an uncanny ability to get to the free-throw line, but the Trojans have to hope that she’s special to survive this test. Watkins debuted with 32 points against Ohio State and broke off 51 in her first meeting with Stanford on the road, so she’s risen up in big games. Bueckers will bring it. We’ll have to see if Watson can find a rhythm that’s eluded her lately.

More women's hoops: Latest odds to win the 2024 Women's NCAA Tournament

UConn vs. USC stat to know

USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb is in her third season at the school but has plenty of experience, reaching the 2013 Final Four with Cal and closing in on 300 wins after beginning her head coaching career at UC-Santa Barbara in 2008. The 70-year-old Auriemma took over at UConn in 1985, has over 1,200 wins, 11 national championships, more Coach of the Year awards than you can count and three Olympic gold medals. Auriemma defeated Gottlieb in their most recent meeting when she was at Cal, winning 76-66 in 2018.

UConn vs. USC prediction

Although Bueckers is brilliant, Watkins has more help due to all the injuries the Huskies have suffered this season. She struggled some in March, but her teammates have risen up to give her another chance to lead them to a title. UConn has come up short against most of the top teams on its schedule and shouldn’t be laying points here. 

Prediction: USC 65, UConn 64. USC (+3.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (135.5).