Like last week, we’re going to play a numbers game as the PGA Tour wraps up the 2024 FedEx Cup playoffs with the Tour Championship this week.
The finale will be held at a revamped East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The numbers we’re going to hit this week include 0, 25, 30, 72 and 10. Zero is the number of FedEx Cup points available this week.
Unlike every other week on the Tour, players won’t be battling for points to try to move into and out of the playoff race. This is the finale and it’s all about the money.
Which brings us to our next number: 25. As in $25 million the FedEx Cup champ will pocket for winning this week. Not bad work if you can get it.
The 30 is the players left standing after the first two weeks of the playoffs. Any of them has a chance for that huge payday. And they will all be flag-hunting each and every shot over the four days because there is no cut and even if you finish 30th this week, you’ll still pocket $550,000. Again, not bad work if you can get it.
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Odds to win Tour Championship at top-rated sportsbooks
Check out odds on top contenders to win the Tour Championship at Caesars Sportsbook:
- Scottie Scheffler -110
- Xander Schauffele +230
- Hideki Matsuyama +1000
- Rory McIlroy +1800
- Ludvig Aberg +2200
- Keegan Bradley +3000
- Colin Morikawa +3500
- Sam Burns +4000
- Wyndham Clark +4000
- Patrick Cantlay +4500
- Viktor Hovland +7000
- Tony Finau +10000
- Adam Scott +10000
- Sungjae Im +10000
- Tommy Fleetwood +12500
- Russell Henley +12500
- Shane Lowry +15000
- Sahith Theegala +225000
- Billy Horschel +27500
- Justin Thomas +30000
As we continue with the numbers, the 72 is the score Keegan Bradley put up on last Sunday en route to winning the BMW Championship. With the win, he picked up the 2,000 FedEx Cup points and moved into the sixth position heading into this week’s tournament.
That’s pretty impressive coming from the guy who had to make an amazing comeback two weeks ago to just get into the 50th spot and have a chance to even play in the BMW.
And then we go to the final number for the week: 10. That’s the strokes under par that FedEx Cup points leader Scottie Scheffler will start the tournament. Yes, because fans may have forgotten, the PGA Tour has a sliding strokes format for the finale.
Scheffler will begin at -10 followed by FedEx Cup runnerup Xander Schauffele, who starts at -8 followed by Hideki Matsuyama (if he’s healthy after having WD’d last week with a back injury) coming in at -6.
The starting spots then drop all the way down to even-par, where the final five players in the Tour Championship--Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christian Bezuidenhout and Justin Thomas--will start.
For the third straight year, Scheffler comes into the tournament in the top spot and starts at -10. He didn’t close the deal the first two times as Viktor Hovland won
in 2023 while Rory McIlroy won in 2022.
He’s also coming off a so-so event last week where he was T-33 in the 50-player field. With the year he’s had, the main question this week is: Can Scheffler turn it around and finish in high style?
Let’s start with a longshot
Tommy Fleetwood, at a robust +12500 this week, is still in search of win No. 1 on the PGA Tour. The chances have been plentiful, but the wins are still at zero.
Why not make that first win a huge one? Fleetwood comes into this week starting at just one-under-par. Not good.
But on the bright side, he did finish T-5 last week to move into the top-30 and earned a spot this week. And to add to the positivity, he was T-6 in the Tour Championship
in 2023, finishing with rounds of 65 and 66 over the weekend to soar up the leaderboard.
A little better start this time around--he opened with a 71 last year--just could have him hoisting the Tour Championship trophy as well as the biggest check of his career.
Backing one of the favorites
We’re going to stick with Schauffele as one of our picks. But, at +230, we’re not getting great value, but we are getting a great starting point at -8.
He’s been standing just outside the Scheffler spotlight all year. He had a chance to take over the No. 1 spot last week with a victory but couldn’t get it out of neutral and wound up T-5. Not a bad finish, but not good enough to move into the top spot.
He’s got one more chance to overtake Scheffler, and with him finishing solo second here last year, we like his chances.
Fading Scottie Scheffler
We know, every time we say that about Scheffler, he wins. We don’t think so this time. He was T-6 here last year, but he’s not coming in playing his best.
Starting at -10 will certainly help his cause. But, starting ahead of the field has dampened his odds severely. He’s -110 to win, but we’re thinking with the field going flag-hunting early and often, he’s going to get run down by someone.
Another one to watch
Ludvig Aberg, at +2200, starts this week at five-under-par and in the fifth spot. He had more than his share of great shots last week--as well as a few he’d just as soon forget--and was right there at the end to finish T-2.
It was his third runnerup finish of 2024, and he’s the highest-ranked player without a win this season. But, he’s got to eliminate the hiccups he had on the back nine on
Sunday when he put three bogeys on the scorecard including one on a par-5.
Put all his ducks in order and Aberg just might get back in the winner’s circle in his first trip to the Tour Championship.
Around the prop scene
At DraftKings, we’re going to take a look at Adam Scott to finish in the top five at +500. Scott had every chance to win last week at the BMW, but he had too many loose swings and missed too many short putts.
Despite those two flaws, he finished just two strokes back and, like he’s said, he’s playing with house money in the playoffs.
There’s one bet that has us scratching our head and we have to take a flier on it: The Big Guns (Scheffler and Schauffele) against The Field. We’re going to take The Field at +225 for the simple fact too many of those in the top 30 are playing great golf.
All it takes is for one player to light it up over the four days for us to cash this
ticket. If you’re wondering, yes, we are hedging our bet a little as we also have Schauffele to win. The only way we lose out is if Scheffler goes on to win, which is certainly possible.
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