For all the revisionist history we’ve seen applied to the efficacy of 2024 NCAA Tournament selection process, the establishment of the Sweet 16 is an indicator the committee did its job reasonably well.
– All eight of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds still are alive, only the fifth time that’s happened in 39 expanded bracket tournaments.
– For all the complaints about the NCAA’s metrics, 14 of the remaining 16 teams were ranked in the top 20 in the final, pre-bracket NET rankings. The NET is what is known as a predictive metric. It seems to have done a good job of predicting the Sweet 16.
– Television ratings for the first two rounds of the tournament remain spectacular, with average audiences of 8.53 million for round 1 games and nearly 11 million for Saturdays start of round 2.
Those who want to reinvent the selection process or, heavens no, expand the tournament, will have to contend with the reality of those numbers as they seek to insist they somehow can improve March Madness.
As we move into the Sweet 16, we present our annual rankings of the remaining teams relative to their ability to win the championship. Some of it is about draw, some is about current performance, but most is related to whether a team legitimately has the goods to win the tournament’s four remaining games:
SN's MARCH MADNESS HQ
Live NCAA bracket news | TV schedule | Printable PDF
Ranking the Sweet 16 teams
1. Connecticut. It is tempting to be seduced by the overwhelming performances UConn presented in Brooklyn. It’s OK to get excited about that, but each round of the NCAA Tournament is its own show, as we were reminded last March, when nearly every serious contender checked out of the South Region and left pre-tournament favorite Alabama apparently unchallenged. And then San Diego State showed up with the season’s best defense, and no Bama player could grab a cup of water without some Aztec slapping it out of his hand.
UConn is here not because of running Northwestern out of the tournament, but for the same reason they were here at the start: They are the one team in the 2023-24 season built exactly like a typical NCAA champion. They also play like one, almost without exception, but they are aware how perilous this pursuit can be. They will have the advantage of a home crowd again in the East Region; Boston is only a smidge more than 90 minutes away from Hartford.
That is one more element in UConn’s favor. It will take an extraordinary effort to eliminate them from this tournament, but we know such things are possible.
MORE: Coach K, Billy Donovan weigh in on UConn's quest to repeat
2. Tennessee. It was a positive sign for the Vols again to survive a tough shooting day from All-American Dalton Knecht in their second-round victory over Texas. But it feels like those days will need to be at an end if they’re going to continue advancing toward a first-ever Final Four.
Knecht has failed to reach 20 points in three of his past five games against high-major opponents. He’s had shooting days of 1-of-7 on threes, 2-of-9 and 1-of-8. That the Vols as a whole shot 3-of-25 against the Longhorns and still won seems almost miraculous.
I still believe in this team and its construction. But Santiago Vescovi is 2-of-16 from long range in his past five games. Point guard Zakai Ziegler is being forced to make up for too much of what’s not happening around him. And the challenge of scoring enough to beat Creighton is staring down the Vols.
3. Purdue. I’m telling you not to get caught up with how teams are playing because everything changes with every round. But Purdue v. Utah State was something to behold. Danny Sprinkle, who is headed for Big Ten money at Washington, had no answers for how to deal with Zach Edey. When he called for three or four defenders to attack him at once, forward Trey Kaufman-Renn scored from the opposite post or the ball was sent outside to guard Fletcher Loyer.
They still will need to make perimeter shots to excel. And they’ll need another just whistle in each round. As Sprinkle said, it is hard to defend Edey without fouling him. When those fouls are called accurately, the Boilers are hard to beat.
MORE: Purdue steamrolls into Sweet 16, but Zach Edey is not satisfied
4. North Carolina. There was a seriousness about the way Carolina responded to Michigan State’s early success in their weekend game that was extremely promising for the Heels. Coach Hubert Davis was bothered by his team’s absence of toughness at the start, and they soon began to win those battles.
The experience of RJ Davis and Armando Bacot is invaluable to this team, but the transfer addition of power forward Harrison Ingram remains the most underrated addition in all of Division I. Ingram has changed the nature of the frontcourt and provided another dangerous perimeter shooter.
He turned around that Michigan State game. I don’t think he’s finished.
MORE: UNC shows its ceiling is still sky-high with rout of Michigan State
5. Creighton. I keep looking at that Tennessee vs. Creighton game in Detroit as the showpiece game of the Sweet 16: two teams that have the capacity to win the NCAA championship (and just enough flaws for the opposition to exploit.) You don’t hear a lot of talk about this Bluejays team as a serious contender. Maybe because it’s Creighton, and Creighton never has reached the Final Four, and so few think of this as a thing that could happen. It could happen.
6. Marquette. We all talked about Tyler Kolek after the team’s second-round victory against Colorado, because how could you not? But Chase Ross’ stirring performance warranted attention, as well. He hit the game’s biggest 3-pointer, shot 5-of-6 from the field and snagged five rebounds that were crucial in a narrow victory. Marquette didn’t use its bench much in the second round, but Ross delivered big.
MORE: A healthy Tyler Kolek erases Marquette's year-old nightmare
7. Houston. The weird thing about the Cougars is there’s not a single game I do not believe they can win, and most they probably should win. But I still don’t see perceive them as a team likely to win the next four. But what an amazing achievement for Kelvin Sampson, not quite 10 years after his return to college basketball coaching, to guide Houston to its fifth consecutive Sweet 16.
8. Arizona. Even in the Wildcats’ second-round victory over Dayton, I noticed times when star shooting guard Caleb Love appeared to be trying to heat himself up with unnecessarily difficult long-range shots. He finished 6-of-15 from the field. It was a fine day. But a more prudent approach could have made it a great day.
9. Duke. How the young Duke guards deal with the aged wonders of the Houston backcourt represents the most fascinating contrast of the Sweet 16 round.
MORE: ACC gets its NET revenge with four teams in Sweet 16
10. Illinois. The Illini would rank higher if they were not stuck in UConn’s region, with an extremely difficult Sweet 16 game against Iowa State preceding an absurdly difficult final against the Huskies. This remains true, though: If Illinois adds 40 minutes of committed defense to its typically irrepressible offense, this team can beat anybody in the field.
11. Gonzaga. When the Zags faced Purdue in Maui, they were much farther away from finding their best game than the Boilers, and still they were in a tight contest until the end. Drilling even an impaired Kansas team like Gonzaga did in the second round is an illustration of how dangerous the core of this team can be – and the core is about all anyone’s having to face, with four of the five starters going 32 minutes or more against KU.
12. Iowa State. This has not been a great tournament for freshmen, mostly because this year’s freshmen haven’t been great. But one of the few game-changers still alive is Cyclones 6-8 freshman Milan Momcilovic, whose big shots helped open up a tight second-round game against Washington State.
13. Alabama. The Tide may not last much longer, but they’re not going to leave this tournament without all of us having some fun. The Carolina-Bama game should be the most entertaining of the Sweet 16; 119.2 points per 100 possessions (Carolina) against 125 points (Alabama). The Heels also are significant defensively, which should get them the W. But Alabama will make them work.
14. Clemson. If you’re one of those people who still insists momentum matters entering the NCAA Tournament, that late-season games should matter more as a result, then you might wish to explain how the team that fell during its final four games to Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Boston College – by 21 to the Eagles in the ACC Tournament – is alive playing Arizona in the Sweet 16.
MORE: Watch the 2024 NCAA Tournament with Sling TV
15. NC State. They were considered a Cinderella when they won the 1983 NCAA Championship despite a lineup that included McDonald’s All-Americans and future pros. So they surely can be one now.
16. San Diego State. Yes, the Sweet 16 offers a rematch of last season’s title game, but UConn is better than a year ago, and the Aztecs are not.
