John Deere Classic odds, predictions, best prop bets for this week's PGA Tour event

Before heading across the Pond for the Genesis Scottish Open next week and the Open Championship the following week, the PGA Tour lands in Illinois for the John Deere Classic.

While this week’s event isn’t a major or a Signature event with an elevated purse, it does offer something the 156-man field will definitely have in the back of their mind: Two spots into the 2024 Open Championship.

That’s right, the top two finishers who aren’t already qualified for the Open Championship will get their chance to tee it up at one of the world’s most impressive layouts: Royal Troon. So, if there’s not enough pressure on these guys to win when the field isn’t stocked with the high-profile players (only seven of the top 50 players in the world rankings are here after Patrick Cantlay withdrew on Monday), the Open Championship spots will ramp up the incentive.

This is one of those tournaments that may not attract the top players, but it’s an event that has helped players make statements. For example, Steve Stricker, now a staple on PGA Tour Champions, won this tournament three straight years (2009, 2010, 2011).

It also seems like this tournament is a place where some Tour players pick up their second victory. Sepp Straka, the defending champ, won in a playoff for his second PGA Tour win after winning the 2022 Honda Classic.

The 2022 champ, J.T. Poston, also won for the second time after picking up his first win at the 2019 Wyndham Championship. And then there are the winners who got their winning ways started here.

Jordan Spieth won the the 2013 tournament in a playoff (after holing a wedge shot on the 72nd hole to force the playoff) for his first PGA Tour win. At age 19, he became the fourth youngest winner on the Tour.

Bryson DeChambeau, the 2017 champ who is now on the LIV Tour, also won here for the first of his nine PGA Tour wins. So whether you’re trying to get back into the winner’s circle or trying to win for the first time, teeing it up at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, is an ideal spot to play.

The champion will pocket $1.3 million out of the $8 million purse as well as 500 FedEx Cup points. Let’s see who might have to pack up their waterproofs (rain gear for the rest of us) after earning a chance to play in the Tour’s final major of 2024.

Odds to win 2024 John Deere Classic

Check out live odds to win the John Deere Classic at top-rated US sportsbooks:

Straka (pictured above) celebrates his win in the 2023 John Deere Classic.

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Back the defending champ

Sepp Straka, the defending champ, is one of the favorites this week at +1600. That just shows you how wide open this tournament is with the big boys gearing up to head across the Pond.

Last year, Straka didn’t come into last year’s John Deere Classic with any momentum at all. He had just one top-10 finish in his previous 13 events before he caught fire.

It wasn’t a good start as he opened with a 72 to find himself way, way down the leaderboard. But a second-round 63 and a final-round 62 propelled him to a two-shot victory and a lot of momentum heading into the Open Championship. How much momentum? Well, he followed up his victory with a T-2 at the Open Championship.

This year, he’s got four top-10s in 12 events where he’s made the cut and has two T-5 finishes in his last four events. Momentum? Straka certainly fits the bill.

Can Jordan Spieth get hot?

Let’s face it, Jordan Spieth, who has dropped down to 32nd in the world rankings, has more than enough game to win here for the third time. Well, at least he has in the past. Right now, he’s struggling.

But getting back to the scene of his first win on Tour -- as well as the fact he’s won here twice (2013 and 2015) -- might be just what the doctor ordered to get him back in the right frame of mind and also get his game back on track.

At +1800, we’re getting a great price if his mind and game are in the proper place. He’s coming into this week having gone nine straight events without a finish in the top 25. Not good.

But all it takes is one good week to turn things around. Every great player has gone into slumps where it seems like nothing goes right.

Let’s see if he can figure out how to turn things around.

Looking for a longer shot?

If the +1600 on Straka and +1800 on Spieth aren’t big enough odds for you, check out J.T. Poston at +2500. Poston was T-6 here last year, but has been middle-of-the-road in 2024.

He does have four top-10 finishes, but they all came early in the year. Recently, he was T-22 at the Memorial and T-32 at the U.S. Open. Both of those were high-profile events. While this one’s not, it might be the spot for him to win for the third time on the PGA Tour.

Around the prop scene

We’re going to check out DraftKings for a couple of prop bets that just might prove to be very profitable. Check out Neil Shipley to be in the top-five after the first round at +1600.

You’re probably wondering: Neil who? Well, Shipley is one of those players who has a chance to really bust out on the PGA Tour. Shipley, who was at Ohio State University before turning pro a couple of weeks ago, was the low amateur at the 2024 Masters and the 2024 U.S. Open.

He then turned pro and played his first professional event, in the PGA Tour Americas tournament in Canada, where he finished at 15-under-par and T-9. In his first PGA Tour event, he went on to a T-20 finish at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he played on a sponsor’s exemption. He’s looking to do enough to earn his PGA Tour card and a win here would lock that up.

We’re also going to look at the winner not playing in the final group at +165. With a wide open field this week, it wouldn’t be a surprise for someone in an earlier group to shoot a lights-out round, post a number and see if anyone in the later groups can catch them.