It was a wild Tuesday night of NBA first-round games, with the biggest takeaway that players' dads really shouldn’t run out on the court after overtime wins. It’s a bad look.
The semifinals in the East are almost completely set. It’ll be Pacers and Cavs, and Celtics against either the Knicks or Pistons, but the West is still wide open. Here’s looking at the two Game 5s tonight.
Warriors at Rockets Game 5 Odds
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According to the people over at StatMuse, Steph Curry is 22-12 in closeout games in his career. Golden State leads this series 3-1, with the winning team having covered in three of the four games. Houston is a medium favorite tonight at 4.5 points.
The Rockets are 2-5 in their last seven games against the spread. Golden State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games in Houston and has won four of the last five games when listed as underdogs. Three of the four games have hit the under.
Warriors at Rockets Game 5 Prediction
I saw this stat and I had to double check it, but it’s true. Houston is 60-95 from the free throw line in this series. Golden State is 54-69. There’s your difference right there. That’s a lot of points to leave on the board.
Game 4 was marked by the return of ‘Playoff Jimmy,’ as Jimmy Butler was back in the line-up for the Warriors and scored a team-high 27 points. I said it in my Game 4 prediction that it appeared that Golden State had found the formula here, muck up the Rockets offense, wait for Steph Curry to get hot in the fourth quarter, and win.
Golden State has outscored Houston by 15 points in the fourth combined in its three wins. Houston is good and going to be better, but they don’t look like they have an answer right now. I want the Warriors and the points to close things out.
The Pick: Golden State +4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Wolves at Lakers Game 5 Odds
LA was one of the best teams against the spread in the NBA in the regular season, but is 1-4 in its last five games. Minnesota is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10. The Lakers are a medium favorite on Wednesday.
Minnesota leads the series 3-1, and the winning team has covered the spread in all four games. I found another interesting stat. The favorite has won straight up 17 of the last 18 times these two have played.
LA is 32-11 at home.
Wolves at Lakers Game 5 Prediction
In Game 4, I didn’t think LeBron James should have been called for a foul (let them play), and I didn’t think Luka Doncic got tripped there in the final minute (it was good defense). Fans don’t want to hear it, but calls do even out.
Minnesota has looked like the younger, more energetic, athletic team in this series. Anthony Edwards had 43 points in the Game 4 win, and Minnesota is 20-5 since early March when Julius Randle returned from an injury.
But tonight, I think the Lakers get it done. I feel like the Wolves may be a little content with a 3-1 series lead, while the Lakers will be locked in. Doncic has been unstoppable for LA. And don’t bet against LeBron in a must-win situation.
The Pick: Lakers -5.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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