College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 13, including Ohio State-Indiana and Notre Dame-Army

No. 5 Indiana meets No. 2 Ohio State in yet another top-five Big Ten showdown involving the Buckeyes. 

The Big Ten contenders meet at 12 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium on Saturday. 

The matchup between the Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) and Buckeyes (9-1, 6-1) will clear up the Big Ten championship picture. Ohio State is a double-digit favorite and expected to continue its winning streak in the series. Will Indiana coach Curt Cignetti reverse the curse? 

That is one of three matchups between ranked teams in Week 13 of the college football season. No. 14 BYU travels to No. 21 Arizona State at 3:30 p.m. ET, and No. 6 Notre Dame meets No. 18 Army at 7 p.m. at Yankee Stadium in a de facto College Football Playoff elimination game. 

There are 18 games involving top 25 teams this week. Here is a look at our track record this season. 

• Straight up: 158-46 (13-5 in Week 11)
• Against the spread: 95-109 (6-12 in Week 11) 

Here are our picks against the spread for Week 13.

MORE: Updated ACC tiebreakers | Big 12 tiebreakers | SEC tiebreakers

College football Week 13 picks against the spread

Friday, Nov. 22

• No. 23 UNLV (-7.5) at San Jose State (10 p.m., FS1) 

UNLV needs a win to stay in the Mountain West Conference championship hunt. The Rebels are 3-2 ATS on the road this season. San Jose State’s Walker Egat is a high-volume passer who has three 300-yard games in the last four weeks, but he also has seven interceptions in that stretch. Rebels quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams makes fewer mistakes, and UNLV gets a back-door cover.  

Pick: UNLV wins 38-24 and COVERS the spread. 

Saturday, Nov. 23 

• No. 9 Ole Miss (-9.5) at Florida (12 p.m., ABC) 

The Gators are coming off a victory against LSU. Can Florida make it two upsets in as many weeks? Ole Miss is coming off a bye week and looking to stay in the SEC championship hunt. Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart has a 177.2 passer rating on the road. Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS on the road this season. These schools have split six meetings this century. Lane Kiffin pushes the Rebels one step closer to the playoff. 

Pick: Ole Miss wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-11.5) (12 p.m., Fox) 

The main event in the Big Ten. Indiana is trying to break a 28-game losing streak to the Buckeyes. This could be a classic defensive game. Ohio State has allowed 9.3 points per game the last four weeks, and the Hoosiers are 11.3 points per game in the same stretch. Kurtis Rourke (182.7 passer rating) and Will Howard (181.9) are the top passers in the conference. Who has more pressure? Ohio State at home trying to avoid a second loss? Or the school trying to win the biggest game in school history? 

Pick: Ohio State wins 30-16 and COVERS the spread. 

• Wake Forest at No. 11 Miami (-24) (12 p.m., ESPN) 

There is no margin for error for the Hurricanes now, who are coming off a bye week. Miami is 2-2 ATS when favored by 20 points or more, and Wake Forest can put up points. The Demon Deacons, however, have played two ranked teams this season – and they lost by an average of 34.5 points. Miami will pour it on in the second half at home. 

Pick: Miami wins 46-20 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 24 Illinois at Rutgers (-2) (12 p.m., Peacock) 

Rutgers is bowl eligible after back-to-back wins, and the Scarlet Knights are 4-2 S/U at home this season. Illinois, however, has won the last three road meetings between the schools. This is the second time Illinois has been an underdog as a ranked team against an unranked Big Ten school. Minnesota beat the Illini 25-17 on Nov. 2. Illinois improves to 2-2 in Big Ten road games behind Luke Altmyer, who has 18 TDs and three interceptions this season. 

Pick: Illinois wins 24-23 in an UPSET. 

• No. 13 SMU (-9.5) at Virginia (12 p.m., ESPN2) 

This line has jumped two points from its opening. Kevin Jennings is trying to lead the Mustangs to the ACC championship game, and this is the last road game on the schedule. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Tony Elliott the last three years, and SMU is 1-2 ATS as a road favorite. That is a risky trend, but we think the Mustangs are good enough to play through that. 

Pick: SMU wins 38-28 and COVERS the spread. 

• UMass at No. 8 Georgia (-42.5) (12:45 p.m., SEC Network) 

Georgia can pick its score here. Look for Carson Beck to stay on track. He has seven TDs and no interceptions against non-conference opponents. The Minutemen have given up just 12 TDs passes this season – but they’ve also given up 27 rushing TDs. This is an opportunity for the Bulldogs to tune up their running game ahead of Georgia Tech. 

Pick: Georgia wins 48-6 but FAILS TO COVER the spread

• UTEP at No. 10 Tennessee (-41) (1 p.m., ESPN+) 

UTEP has allowed more than 200 yards rushing five times this season, and Tennessee will take advantage of that with Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson. There is a risk for an emotional letdown after the Georgia loss, but there also is the perception the Volunteers need to impress the committee if they want that last playoff spot. It’s a huge number, but Tennessee is 2-0 ATS when favored by 30 points or more this season. 

Pick: Tennessee wins 49-7 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (-3.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN) 

Arizona State is one of the hottest teams in the FBS, and they have committed just one turnover in an impressive three-game win streak. Sam Leavitt has nine TDS and zero interceptions in that stretch. Will that continue against a BYU defense that allows 176.1 passing yards per game? The answer is yes if Cam Skattebo is effective in the running game. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and it just feels like an instant classic between Big 12 teams. 

Pick: Arizona State wins 27-25 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 4 Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota (3:30 p.m., CBS)

These Big Ten teams do not play frequently, and the Gophers have won the last two meetings in Minneapolis. The Nittany Lions are in a bit of a beauty contest in the Big Ten, and Drew Allar has a 78.7% completion percentage with four TDs and no interceptions since the loss to Ohio State. The Gophers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games at home underdog. This is a tough call, and Minnesota had a bye week to prepare. 

Pick: Penn State wins 31-17 and COVERS  the spread. 

• No. 16 Colorado (-2.5) at Kansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN) 

The Buffaloes control their own destiny in the Big 12 race, and now the challenge is to avoid an upset bid at Arrowhead Stadium. What’s been the difference with Kansas the last two weeks? The Jayhawks aren’t turning the ball over. Kansas, however, is 1-3 S/U when allowing 250 passing yards or more. The connection between Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter continues here. 

Pick: Colorado wins 34-20 and COVERS the spread. 

• Kentucky at No. 3 Texas (-20.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC) 

Texas closes out its home schedule against Kentucky. The Wildcats are 3-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season – and they were 1-2 S/U in those games against Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Texas is 1-3 ATS in its last four games – but that included a blowout home victory against Florida. We kind of see that one coming here. Look for the Longhorns to make a statement ahead of the Texas A&M matchup. 

Pick: Texas wins 38-15 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 25 Washington State (-13) at Oregon State (7 p.m., The CW) 

The Pac-12 game of the year, quite literally. The Beavers are stuck in a five-game losing streak, but they are 2-3 S/U at home and lost by 11 points or less to San Jose State and UNLV. Washington State is coming off a shocking loss against New Mexico. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, but Oregon State’s offense might have trouble keeping up with the Cougars. 

Pick: Washington State wins 34-24 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 12 Boise State (-22.5) at Wyoming (7 p.m., CBSSN) 

Boise State continues its march toward a Mountain West Conference championship, but is this a trap game? Wyoming has three home losses by an average of nine points per game, including a 34-14 loss to BYU on Sept. 14. The Cowboys also allow 201.2 rushing yards per game. Ashton Jeanty – who has 1,893 yards and 26 TDs – should have a huge game. The Broncos are 2-2 ATS when favored by 20 points or more, including 0-1 ATS on the road. 

Pick: Boise State wins 38-14 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 6 Notre Dame (-16.5) vs. No. 18 Army (7 p.m., NBC/Peacock) 

The Irish have won 14 straight meetings in the series – and they have won the last three meetings by 31.3 points per game. Army had a bye week to prepare, and the Black Knights lead the FBS with 334.9 yards per game, and the defense has allowed more than 14 points in one game this season. The Irish routed Navy 51-14 on Oct. 26, and they have allowed more than 14 points only one time this season. This line could go down a bit before kickoff. 

Pick: Notre Dame wins 28-14 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 7 Alabama (-14) at Oklahoma (7:30 p.m, ABC) 

It’s been a disappointing first season for Oklahoma in the SEC, but a victory against Alabama would be an early signature in the conference for Brent Venables. The Sooners will favor a high-percentage passing attack with Jackson Arnold, and the defense – led by linebacker Danny Stutsman – allows 2.9 yards per carry. Alabama has blowout victories at Wisconsin and LSU and road losses at Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Sooners are 1-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog. 

Pick: Alabama wins 28-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 15 Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ESPN))

Should the Aggies be on upset alert? Auburn’s defense has allowed 74.8 rushing yards per game and limited quarterbacks to a 46.8% completion percentage in its last four games. Marcel Reed will have to avoid turnovers on the road, and Texas A&M can demonstrate what they learned from the loss at South Carolina on Nov. 2. That sets up the showdown with Texas on Rivalry Week. 

Pick: Texas A&M wins 20-14 and COVERS the spread. 

MORE: What if Auburn had hired Deion Sanders? An alternate history

• No. 22 Iowa State (-6) at Utah (7:30 p.m., Fox) 

The Utes are on a six-game losing streak – one of the stunning developments of the season. Iowa State recalibrated its defense in a 34-17 victory against Cincinnati. Utah needs to win out to be bowl eligible, but can they play clean enough to make this a game? The Utes have a minus-8 turnover margin during this losing streak. They can’t just bank on home-field advantage anymore. The Cyclones don’t make as many mistakes – even on the road. 

Pick: Iowa State wins 22-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.