Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions & favorites: Full list of projected winners for all 14 races

In the horse racing world, Kentucky Derby day might as well be Super Bowl Sunday. Saturday will easily serve as the sport's biggest day of the calendar year, and not just because of the 151st Run for the Roses. Churchill Downs will also host a total of 13 other races on Derby Day, all of which will also garner plenty of attention from racing fans and the betting community, both near and far. 

Of course, bettors will need to put in some work if they want to put some action on the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports as well as the 13 undercard races. That's where the Sporting News comes in — we've been analyzing the fields of every Derby-day race this entire week, and we've got FanDuel Racing odds and outright-winner picks for every last one. 

MORE: Who will win the Kentucky Derby? | Odds, sleepers and top long-shots

Will odds-on favorite Journalism dominate the main event out of the eighth gate? Which horse has the best odds to win an undercard race? Who's the best sleeper or long-shot value on Derby Day? You've got questions ahead of the 2025 Kentucky Derby, and we've got some answers. So, pour yourself a mint julep, sit back, and take a look at our 14 best bets for the big day. 

Here's the Sporting News' comprehensive betting guide for 2025 Kentucky Derby day, including FanDuel Racing odds, post times and best bets for all 14 races scheduled for Saturday.

Kentucky Derby 2025: Odds to win

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing.

Kentucky Derby 2025 (Race 12, 6:57 p.m. ET): Favorites

The clear favorites in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field are Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1).

No horse in this field is faster than Journalism, and he earned the best draw of the three favorites with post No. 8. Nine horses have won out of the eighth gate, while gates No. 17 and 18 have produced a total of two victors since 1930. 

Journalism (3-1)

Simply put, Journalism is the most dominant horse in this year's main event, with four straight wins, including the popular prep race, the Santa Anita Derby. He gets out of the gate quickly, he has elite tactical speed, and his running style suits a race filled with speed horses. Journalism has the pedigree, training and endurance to win this race and reward chalk bettors. 

Sovereignty (5-1)

Sovereignty has also turned heads as a strong closer, with past wins at Churchill Downs as well as Gulfstream Park. The Bill Mott-trained Kentucky colt has recent wins at Fountain of Youth and Street Sense, as well as runner-up finishes at the Florida Derby and MSW at Aqueduct. 

Sandman (6-1)

Another Grade-1 closer out of Kentucky, Sandman has superb tactical speed, impressive stamina and fantastic graded-stakes form. He might have the best combination of stalking speed, versatility and endurance in this field, and he's coming off a big win at the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. 

Kentucky Derby 2025: Best bet

Journalism (3-1)

It's hard to go for a morning-line favorite at +300, but it's also difficult to get away from the best horse in the race at one of the most winningest posts in Kentucky Derby history. Journalism has too much skill to ignore, and we can't overlook his big win at Santa Anita despite some adversity. Ten previous winners at the Santa Anita Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, and we expect Journalism to make it 11 this Saturday.

Race 1: First post (11:00 a.m. ET)

Best bet: Coffee Talk (4-1)

With a solid pedigree, an elite jockey in Luis Saez and a fantastic trainer in Brad Cox, Coffee Talk is far more than just a cool name. Coming off a March 12 second at Fair Grounds, this three-year-old colt will be the horse to beat out of post No. 11 in the first race of Derby Day. 

Race 2: Second post (11:32 a.m. ET)

Best bet: Generous Lover (7-2)

Generous Lover has won six of her past nine races on the Ohio stakes scene, and she hasn't finished below third in any of her past seven. The five-year-old hasn't raced since October, but riding with Jose Ortiz should have the Joe Sharp-trained mare right back in the winner's circle this Saturday morning. 

Race 3: Third post (12:05 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Goal Oriented (4-1)

It was only a matter of time before we picked a Bob Baffert horse. Goal Oriented races with Flavien Prat just weeks after the three-year-old colt won his maiden at Santa Anita Park. A stalker and pouncer, Goal Oriented ultimately won that race by 3 ¼ lengths.

Race 4: Knicks Go Stakes (G2, 12:38 p.m. ET)

Best sleeper bet: Castle Chaos (20-1)

It's tempting to go with the better overall racer in Patriot Spirit (8-1), but the odds on Castle Chaos yield better value. This 7-year-old gelding has been in strong form lately, coming off a runner-up finish at Aqueduct in which he showcased his tactical speed on the one-mile turn. He also had strong showings and a Beyer Speed Figure of 97 last year at the Carter Stakes (G2) and Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3), and he rides with Journalism jockey Umberto Rispoli in this race. 

Race 5: Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2, 1:12 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Special Wan (5-2)

Special Wan has emerged as one of the best horses in the older mare grass division. The 5-year-old from Ireland recently won the 2025 Honey Fox (G3) at Gulfstream Park, and she has two runner-ups and a third over her past five races. Trainer Brendan Walsh has a great shot at victory with Special Wan this weekend. 

Race 6: Pat Day Mile (G2, 1:53 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Gaming (3-1)

Legendary trainer Bob Baffert has two top contenders in the Pat Day: odds-on favorite Madaket Road (2-1) and Gaming (3-1). We're going with Gaming, sired by former dirt-track star Game Winner and running with Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velázquez out of Gate No. 6. Gaming enters this weekend in strong form, coming off a runner-up in the Hot Springs at Oaklawn Park. He also finished third at Los Alamitos Futurity in December (a race that was won by Journalism) and runner-up to Citizen Bull at the Breeders' Cup in November. 

Race 7: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2, 2:38 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Think Big (4-1)

Since scaling back from longer-distance races, Think Big has won three of his past four events. He gets out of the gate well and maintains speed from wire to wire, and his success on grass and turf should help him on a Churchill track that's likely to be soft because of the recent precipitation. We expect big things from Think Big and jockey Ben Curtis, who have been paired in all four of the gelding's victories. 

Race 8: Churchill Downs Stakes (G1, 3:23 p.m. ET)

Best exacta bet: Mindframe and Banishing (exacta box)

Mindframe (3-1) and Banishing (5-1) easily serve as the two strongest horses in the Churchill Downs Stakes, and we like the value we're getting from them in an exacta box. Mindframe recently took first at the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), and he has three wins and two runner-ups over five career races. Banishing has five wins and three seconds in his eight races since November, including an impressive victory at the Oaklawn Mile in late March. 

Race 9: American Turf Stakes (G2, 4:06 p.m. ET)

Best value bet: Scipio (12-1)

Scipio has finished first in two of his past three races and hasn't been lower than runner-up in his four events since November 1. The removal of this three-year-old colt's blinkers has paid dividends, and he can easily glide past the frontrunners in the Turf Stakes on Saturday afternoon. 

Race 10: Derby City Distaff (4:50 p.m. ET) 

Best bet: Kopion (8-1)

Sometimes it's simple, and the best horse serves as the best bet. That's the case with this filly, who seems like one of the best favorites of all the undercards. She has yet to take a loss racing at this distance, with impressive tactical speed and elite Beyer Speed Figures throughout the past year. Kopion should sprint past the field on Saturday. 

Race 11: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1, 5:39 p.m. ET)

Best exacta bet: Spirit of St. Louis and Redistricting (exacta box)

When in doubt, go with both Chad Brown horses to win. Spirit of St. Louis (9-2) won the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), a similar race to the Turf Classic, and we like him to finish first or second here. Redistricting (8-1) has finished no worse than runner-up in two of his past three races, and he presents as one of the faster horses in this field. 

Best sleeper bet: Cameo Performance (20-1)

Across seven career starts, Cameo Performance has accrued two wins, two seconds and a third. With solid speed and a strong team in trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Luis Saez, this colt has the makings of a high-value race-day sleeper.

Race 13: 13th post (8:00 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Big Truzz (9-2)

We're once again targeting the Luis Saez/Brian Lynch pairing, with Big Truzz coming off an April 12 victory in his maiden at Keeneland. He smoked the field in that race, finishing four lengths ahead of the second-place finisher. 

Race 14: 14th post (8:33 p.m. ET)

Best exacta bet: Pursuitneversleeps and Advanced Spirit (exacta box)

Derby day finishes with a one-mile spring, and we like No. 12 Pursuitneversleeps and No. 5 Advanced Spirit to blow away their competition and finish first and second. Both have superb stalking speed and should finish the day as the fastest horses in the final race.