The four teams in this evening's NBA Play-In Tournament all changed identities at some point during the regular season. Did it work? They made the Play-In, so by some metrics, that’s a success, but when judged against pre-season expectations, not so much.
I’m working off two wins in last night’s 7/8 Play-In Tournament games. Tonight it’s win or go home. The winner of Heat/Bulls gets the emotional Hawks, while the winner of Mavs/Kings gets the Grizzlies.
NBA Picks for Heat-Bulls, Mavs-Kings
Heat (+2) vs. Bulls
Chicago moved on from Zach LaVine this season, recognizing there was only so far he could take them, and turned the team over to Coby White and Josh Giddey. They’d love to have Lonzo Ball in the mix there, too, but Ball is always hurt, unfortunately.
White is one of the best NBA players you've never heard about. He’s like SGA. He is fearless and has good range. He opens things up for Chicago.
Miami moved on from Jimmy Butler, believing in addition by subtraction. They turned their offense over to Tyler Herro. The Heat still play bruising defense. My favorite stat on them is that they led the NBA in personal fouls this season. Andrew Wiggins landed with the Heat and is scoring 19 a game now. Miami is not a smooth offensive team.
Heat at Bulls Pick
I’m actually wrestling with this one a little. Both teams finished the season strong. The Bulls were 22-35 and went 17-8 to close the season. The Heat were 29-41 and then went 8-4 to finish, however, the Heat’s schedule went notably soft in that stretch, as they beat the Sixers twice, the Wizards, the Pelicans, and the Hornets. They did beat the Celtics once.
Chicago has been an underdog in all three meetings this season and won all three straight up. Tonight they’re getting a point. I like Chicago because they’re at home and because I like what Nikola Vucevic can give them inside.
The pick: Bulls -1 (-105 at DraftKings)
Mavericks (+4.5) vs. Kings
Speaking of teams that changed identities, we all know what the Mavericks did this season, trading away Luka Doncic to LA. Short-term, it changed the fate of both franchises, but let’s not be all hot-takey and see how it all plays out.
The prize for Dallas in the deal was Anthony Davis, then wham, he gets hurt and has only played in nine games for the Mavs. Dallas is 6-3 in those games. Kyrie Irving tore his ACL in a loss to the Kings, of all people, in March. To me, the bigger if on the Mavs season might be what happened if Irving didn’t get hurt. (Oh, no, that’s a hot take).
Sacramento has had upheaval this year, too. They dumped coach Mike Brown after 31 games and hired Doug Christie. They brought in Zach LaVine from the Bulls, and he’s fit in well -- not trying to do as much as he did in Chicago.
Mavericks at Kings Pick
The Mavs have some beef inside with PJ Washington and Dereck Lively II, so you can kind of see how it was supposed to work. Davis could play at power forward, those guys do the dirty work, Kyrie creates on the perimeter. But none of it has worked.
Sacramento’s ceiling is higher at the moment. Domantas Sabonis is still a handful down low. He’s led the NBA in rebounding for the last three seasons. Having watched Sacramento, they have a much greater sense of their roles than the Mavs do. They’ll be excited tonight. Dallas just wants to pack up and go home.
The pick: Kings -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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