It wouldn't be a College Football Playoff race without controversy.
Guess who will be at the center of it? Tennessee – which lost 31-17 to Georgia in Week 12 – will be the odd-SEC team out in the third set of College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday. The SEC has five two-loss teams that includes Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
The Vols have a compelling case over two-loss teams. They beat Alabama head-to-head. Texas A&M has a non-conference loss to Notre Dame. Ole Miss didn't have to play Georgia and Alabama – and they lost to Kentucky. Will any of those justifications push Tennessee into the 12-team field?
Probably not, but a blowout victory against Vanderbilt could start a head-to-head debate with the Crimson Tide in those final weeks. The problem is Alabama beat Georgia, and that's all the committee will see in this case. Tennessee also lags in quirky the tie-breaker that could decide the crowded SEC championship race.
The ACC and Big 12 are one-bid leagues. So is the Group of 5. The Vols can't get help there. Here are the two best-case scenarios for Tennessee in the next three weeks:
-Notre Dame takes a second loss to either Army or USC. That would knock the Irish out and put a fifth SEC team in.
-What if Ohio State blows out Indiana in Week 13? The Hoosiers are everyone's favorite story, but Tennessee could use the strength-of-schedule argument to try to push Indiana out. Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are likely in at this point. The Vols could make it a thing with the Hoosiers, and they will.
Tennessee's position in this race is going to be a very loud thing that could be this year's version of the Florida State argument from 2023. That is the controversy that is coming. Buckle up.
Each week, Sporting News breaks down the 12-team College Football Playoff, with first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. Here is how that looks heading into Week 13:
Moved in: Georgia
Dropped out: Tennessee
MORE: Updated ACC tiebreakers | Big 12 tiebreakers | SEC tiebreakers
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
Sporting News
No. 1 Oregon (11-0, Big Ten champion)
A fourth-and-9 conversion from Dillon Gabriel to Terrance Ferguson turned the momentum for Oregon at Wisconsin in a 16-13 nailbiter. The Ducks scored 10 fourth-quarter points, Mateo Uiagalelei sealed the victory with an interception and Oregon maintained its unbeaten season in the Big Ten. The Ducks can watch Ohio State-Indiana during a late-season bye week and prepare for the regular-season finale against Washington. Oregon avoided disaster at Camp Randall Stadium, and that is all that matters this week for coach Dan Lanning.
No. 2 Texas (9-1, SEC champion)
Texas built a 10-0 halftime lead and withstood an Arkansas rally in a 20-10 road victory that kept the Longhorns on top in a crowded SEC race. Quinn Ewers (20 of 32, 176 yards, 2 TDs) picked up a late fourth-down conversion that sealed the victory, and the defense limited the Razorbacks to 82 rushing yards. Texas plays its home finale against Kentucky before the highly-anticipated matchup at Texas A&M on Nov. 30.
No. 3 Miami (9-1, ACC)
The Hurricanes will hold their spot after a bye week. Miami leads the FBS with an offense that averages 45 points per game, and Cam Ward (3,494 yards, 32 TDs, 6 INTs) is among the game-changing quarterbacks in the field. Miami controls their destiny in the ACC race, which continues in the home finale against Wake Forest.
No. 4 BYU (9-1, Big 12 champion)
The bad news? BYU's luck ran out in a 17-13 loss against Kansas. The Cougars had two turnovers, including a fluky fumble on a punt that resulted in a fourth-quarter Kansas touchdown. That means the Cougars are tied with Colorado for the Big 12 lead with two games to play, and a road trip to Arizona State won't be easy. The good news? BYU still has a non-conference victory against SMU and will be the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 in the next rankings.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 13 of the college football season:
No. 12 Boise State (9-1, Mountain West champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (9-1, Big Ten at-large)
The Buckeyes set up the top-five showdown with Indiana after a business-like 31-7 victory against Northwestern at Wrigley Field. Will Howard (15 of 24, 247 yards, 2 TDs) was effective, the Buckeyes averaged 5.2 yards per carry and linebacker Sonny Styles had six tackles, two sacks and two pass breakups. Boise State trailed San Jose State 14-0 before pulling away in the second half for a 42-21 victory. Ashton Jeanty (32-159, 3 TDs) increased his season total to 1,893 rushing yards. The Broncos are still ahead of Army (9-0) and Tulane (9-2) for the Group of 5 playoff berth.
No. 11 Georgia (8-2, SEC at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (9-1, Big Ten at-large)
This would be a classic SEC-Big Ten matchup. The pecking order of the three SEC teams is debatable, but the Bulldogs have head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. The committee typically honors that. Carson Beck (25 of 40, 346 yards, 2 TDs) had a bounce-back performance against Tennessee. Penn State beat Purdue 49-10. Drew Allar (17 of 19, 247 yards, 3 TDs) was efficient, and tight end Tyler Warren had 127 receiving yards, 63 rushing yards and two TDs. He is one of the most unique players in the FBS. Kirby Smart talks at length about the road environments in the SEC. Would the Bulldogs be ready for a postseason "Whiteout?"
No. 10 Ole Miss (8-2, SEC at-large) at No. 7 Indiana (10-0, Big Ten at-large)
This would be the other SEC-Big Ten matchup in the first round. These are two teams that rank in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense, so let's not act like they don't belong. Indiana's moment of truth is here. The Hoosiers had a bye week, and coach Curt Cignetti signed an eight-year contract extension that will keep him with the Hoosiers through 2032. Indiana has not beat Ohio State since back-to-back victories in 1987-88. Ole Miss had a bye week, and the Rebels have to get past an improved Florida team in Week 12. The teams haven't met since 2020, and there is no margin for error for Lane Kiffin here.
No. 9 Alabama (8-2, SEC at-large) at No. 8 Notre Dame (9-1, Independent at-large)
Can you imagine this first-round game in South Bend? Alabama beat Mercer 52-7 and maintains its at-large spot heading into a road trip to Oklahoma. Jalen Milroe has not thrown an interception in three games since the loss to Tennessee on Oct. 19, and he averages 170 passing yards and 92.7 rushing yards with eight total TDs in those games. The Irish coasted in the second half of a 35-14 victory against Virginia. Notre Dame rushed for 234 yards and forced five turnovers, which sets up a season-defining showdown against unbeaten Army.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Tennessee (8-2, SEC)
We mentioned Tennessee's predicament, but the loss to Georgia comes at the wrong time. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava (20 of 33, 167 yards) struggled in the second half against the Bulldogs, and that road loss to Arkansas on Oct. 5 is an anchor that is going to be difficult to overcome without help.
SMU (9-1, ACC)
The Mustangs will still be left out in the third set of College Football Playoff rankings, but they remain on pace to make the ACC championship game. Kevin Jennings (24 of 35, 298 yards, 3 TDs, INT) continued his stellar season in ACC play, and Breshad Smith (18-120, TD) enjoyed his third straight game with 100 yards or more. Will a road trip to Virginia be the trap game that opens up the ACC championship race?
Texas A&M (8-2, SEC)
The Aggies are the last two-loss SEC team in the bunch, and they are still tied atop the conference standings with one loss. Texas A&M beat New Mexico State 38-3 in a bounce-back performance from Marcel Reed (20 of 38, 261 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), and Amari Daniels (5-84, TD) and EJ Smith (15-60) proved they can carry the workload in place of Le'Veon Moss. A road trip to Auburn is a trap game before the season-finale against Texas.
Colorado (8-2, Big 12)
Colorado coach Deion Sanders said the Buffaloes would "Take what is ours" in the pre-game interview Saturday, and that is exactly what they did. Colorado routed Utah 49-24. Heisman Trophy front-runner Travis Hunter dazzled with 60 total yards, a 5-yard TD on a reverse and an interception. Shedeur Sanders (30 of 41, 340 yards, 3 TDs, INT) had another strong performance, and the Buffaloes are tied for the Big 12 lead.
