We’re treated to another NBA first round Game 7 when the Houston Rockets, who were down 3-1 in this series, host Golden State.
Houston has won the last two games comfortably and is a 2.5-point favorite tonight at the Toyota Center. The main storyline of the series has been Golden State’s experience against Houston’s athleticism. It will be the first Game 7 for almost all of Houston’s stars, while it will be the sixth Game 7 for Warrior greats Steph Curry and Draymond Green.
Fortunately, it’s not my first Game 7. Let’s dive into Warriors at Rockets Game 7.
Warriors at Rockets Game 7 Odds
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Houston is 4-2 against the spread in this series. The average margin of victory has been 10.3 points - only one of the games was close.
The total listed tonight is 205.5. The average total for the six games in this series is 210.6. The first three games of the series went under, the last three have gone over.
Houston has won 11 of their last 12 first-round home games. Golden State hasn’t covered the spread in five of its last six road games dating back to the regular season.
This year, as underdogs, Golden State is 12-17 while Houston is 44-14 as favorites. The Warriors are 43-43-3 against the spread. Houston 46-40-2 against the spread, and 31-13 at home straight up.
Warriors at Rockets Game 7 Betting Anaylsis
Golden State appeared to have things going their way after taking a 3-1 series lead, but the Warriors struggled in Game 5 in Houston and were outplayed at home in Game 6. Instead of Houston wilting down the stretch in Game 6, it was Golden State, who missed 13 straight shots at one point.
Fred VanVleet has scored 25 points or more for Houston in the last three games. He’s been the difference during Houston’s push. Houston has shot better than Golden State from the floor (45.3 percent to 42.7) from three-point range (37.8 to 34.7) and outrebounded Golden State 46-40 on average.
The Rockets have led at halftime in the last five games, but what had been happening was Golden State was finding a new gear in the fourth quarter - usually Steph Curry would get going - and the Warriors would close it out. Curry leads all scorers in this series with 24.3 points. Jimmy Butler has scored 18.
Warriors at Rockets Game 7 Pick
It’s scary because all the numbers and all the action (63 percent) point to the Rockets, which usually screams Go The Other Way!
Houston has won two in a row in this series and seems to have figured Golden State out. They’ve basically tried to lock up everyone else and just let Curry not put up 40.
Curry and Draymond Green are each 3-2 in Game 7s in their careers and have played in some of the most memorable games in NBA history. I can’t get past their ages, though. I remember when Larry Bird slowed down for the Celtics, and even when Jordan just wasn’t quite the same player as he got older.
All series long, I thought Houston was the better team. Teams with aging stars don’t keep winning titles. It’s just natural. I thought Houston was the favorite coming into the series. It’s taken longer than I thought it would, but the Rockets will prevail.
The Pick: Houston -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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