After a super Sunday of NBA action -- I feel for Damian Lillard and anyone who had the Magic +7 -- there are two more first round games on the NBA Playoffs schedule Monday night, with the Cavaliers going for a sweep in Miami, and the Warriors looking for a 3-1 lead on the Rockets.
NBA Playoffs Betting Picks for April 28
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Cavaliers at Heat Odds
The Cavs lead this series 3-0 and are 2-1 against the spread in this series. Two of the games ticked the over, while the other game missed the over by a point.
The total tonight is 210.5 at BetMGM, but a point lower at DraftKings. The Cavs are 50-34-1 against the spread this season, 6-4 in their last 10 games.
It was a shocker before Game 3 when Cavs guard Darius Garland was ruled out with a toe injury. His official status is questionable for Game 4, and it could go either way, Cleveland could play him and try for the sweep, or rest him up for Game 5. Miami is 8-2 at home coming off a loss. Cleveland hasn’t had a sweep in a playoff series since 2018.
Cavaliers at Heat NBA Playoffs Pick
I didn’t see the Cavs Game 3 blowout coming. Miami started off well, and then was overwhelmed. It was the worst loss in Miami postseason history.
We got to see what makes Cleveland so good. Donovan Mitchell had only 13 points, there was no Garland, but the Cavs bench plays at a high level, and big man Jarrett Allen had 22 points.
This series is over, but will Miami ride or die to prevent a sweep? I am betting they ride. The first two games were close, and the Heat still have a lot of pride. They haven’t played badly in this series outside of Game 3. Tyler Herro is averaging 22.3 points, and the Heat still plays good defense. My prediction is Miami keeps it close. I will take the points.
The Pick: Heat +8.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Rockets at Warriors Odds
Golden State leads this series 2-1 and is a 3.5-point favorite tonight. The winning team has covered in all three games so far, in fact, every game in this series has been won by 10 or more points.
The last seven meetings have all hit the under, and the total tonight has dropped significantly down to 199.5. Golden State is 12-1 against Houston at home in the playoffs.
Both teams are almost the exact same against the spread. Houston is 43-40-2, while Golden State is 43-30-3.
Rockets at Warriors Betting Pick
I have been wrong about this series from the start. I liked Houston’s chances, and then I really liked the Rockets with Jimmy Butler sidelined for Golden State. Butler is officially questionable for Game 4 and will be a game-time decision.
Golden State has done a great job of clogging up Houston’s offense. They don’t give them anything easy. Then it’s like the Warriors just wait until Steph Curry goes on a run, and that’s enough. Curry is 14-31 from three in this series and averaging 29 points.
Add Butler to the mix, and it just makes Houston’s task even harder, because he’s another tenacious defender Golden State can throw at the Rockets. I still like the under today, and I’m now sold on the Warriors. I think they have found a formula that works.
The Pick: Warriors -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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