For our Sweet 16 upset picks on Friday night's slate of March Madness games, we look at the teams that are playing the best, and even though they go into their matchup as underdogs, have an excellent chance of pulling off the upset.
We will also share the live point spreads and OVER/UNDER totals from the top sports betting sites for the full March Madness betting card on Friday, March 29.
Best upset picks for Sweet 16 on Friday, March 29
When looking at the best upset picks for the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament, there are a few questions to answer that give us clues as to what matchups set up for potential surprises.
- How have the two teams played in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament? Have they dominated, or have they barely survived?
- How healthy are the teams? Were there any injuries in their first two games, or maybe, like Marquette, did they have a player return to boost their team's chances in March?
- What do their advanced metrics, like KenPom rankings, look like? History tells us that teams that make it to the Final Four, especially those that win a National Championship, are onsistently rank at a certain level.
March Madness Sweet 16 upset pick No. 1: NC State's magical run not done yet
It is becoming hard to believe, but the Wolfpack just won't lose. They have won seven games in a row and were underdogs in five of the seven matchups. NC State is an underdog again facing Marquette, and everything analytically would lead us to believe that the Golden Eagles should handle the Wolfpack. Yet the same could be said for when the Wolfpack beat Duke, North Carolina, and Texas Tech, just to name a few of the teams they have upset in the last two weeks.
There is a long history of teams finding some spark, getting some luck, or simply refusing to lose in March. NC State is the 2024 edition of that type of team, and it is getting difficult to pick against the Wolfpack. NC State is not without talent either; they have a star guard in D.J. Horne who can, on any given night, elevate the team. He did just that when he scored 29 in the ACC Tournament Championship game against North Carolina to win and earn the Wolfpack a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
DJ Burns Jr. has been so much fun to watch, and at 6-foot-9, 275 lbs is a difficult matchup for opponents. The Wolfpack also seemingly have role players step up every time they need one to fill a gap or a need. Mohamed Diarra averages only 6.4 PPG and 7.7 RPG, but he tallied two double-doubles with 11 points, 13 rebounds, and 17 points and 12 rebounds in the second and first rounds of March Madness, respectively.
As good as Marquette is, if the Wolfpack gets strong games out of Burns Jr. and Horne, along with players like Diarra stepping up, then regardless of what the stats and analytics say, it's hard to see the Wolfpack losing.
Analysis: NC State vs. Marquette odds, predictions, trends
March Madness Sweet 16 upset pick No. 2: Creighton's offense too much for Volunteers
Tennessee won comfortably in the first round over a 15 seed but looked bad and barely survived in the second round against Texas. The biggest worry for Tennessee coming out of the first weekend has to be the play of their superstar, Dalton Knecht. The senior wing averages 21.1 PPG, shooting 46.1% from the field and 39.1% from three. Against Texas, though, he was 5-for-18 from the field and 1-for-8 from three.
If Knecht has another poor performance like that, the Volunteers are in trouble. Creighton has been playing really well and has more scoring production from its top players than Tennessee does. Behind Knecht, Jonas Aidoo averages 12 points per game, and Zakai Zeigler averages 11.7. Their top three average a total of 44.8 points per game.
Creighton's top three of Baylor Scheierman (18.3 PPG), Trey Alexander (17.7 PPG), and Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.4 PPG), average a total of 53.4 PPG. That tells us Knecht has to have a big game, or Tennessee could be in trouble. Coming off a poor second-round performance, the pressure will be even higher.
Dig deeper: Creighton vs. Tennessee odds, predictions, trends
Sweet 16 odds for rest of Friday night's March Madness slate
While we are not predicting upset in these matchups, we expect the underdog to test their opponent
South Region: No. 4 Duke vs. No. 1 Houston odds
Texas A&M almost eliminated Houston, while Duke has won impressively in their first two contests. The Blue Devils have the better offense, and if Houston battles foul trouble again, Duke could steal this one.
Matchup: Duke vs. Houston odds, predictions, trends
Midwest Region: No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue odds
The Boilermakers have looked excellent but have struggled with upsets in their last several seasons in the NCAA Tournament. If Purdue plays like it did in the first two rounds, they'll win, but a letdown game is possible because, well, it's Purdue.
Matchup: Gonzaga vs. Purdue odds, predictions, trends
Sweet 16 betting promos in North Carolina: Bonus bets for NC State, Duke
If you're in North Carolina and would like to back the NC State Wolfpack or Duke Blue Devils in their Sweet 16 games tonight, check out these fantastic NC sportsbook promos:
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