NBA playoff, or play-in, basketball arrives tonight with the 7/8 games in each conference. I think the Play-In Tournament has done just what was intended. It’s been something to keep teams playing hard at the end of the regular season.
There are two games tonight with the winner advancing to face the 2 seed in the first round. The loser plays the winner of the 9/10 game at home. No seven seed has ever failed to make it out of the Play-In Tournament.
I’m going to cash in with my picks, I’ve been riding a bit of a hot streak lately.
NBA Picks for Hawks-Magic, Grizzlies-Warriors
Hawks (+5.5) vs. Magic
Don’t judge me, but I watched every minute of the Hawks/Magic game on Sunday when both teams played their backups, and the Hawks won easily at home.
On paper, the two teams are alike. Against the spread, Orlando was 40-41-1, while Atlanta was 41-40-1. They split four regular season games.
But on the floor, they’re total opposites. The Magic are the NBA’s best defensive team, allowing 105.5 points a game. Atlanta wants to run and gun. They score 118.2, fifth in the NBA. Hawks guard Trae Young can get hot and take a game over. The Magic and Paolo Banchero just want to power through you and take their time.
Hawks at Magic Prediction
The Magic were on pace for 50 wins or more when Banchero missed a chunk of the season with a torn oblique, then Orlando lost Mo Wagner and Jalen Suggs for the season with injuries. I think the Magic are a lot better than their record shows. But Atlanta can suddenly get hot and blow you away, but defensively, they don’t put out much effort. Atlanta doesn’t have anyone who can stop Banchero. He’s going to have a big game.
The pick: Magic -5.0 (-110 at FanDuel)
Grizzlies (+7) vs. Warriors
The late game finds two teams in the Western Conference who had odd seasons. Golden State is beginning to show some signs of wear (code for old). They’re still good for one game, but I don’t know if they’re built for the playoffs.
Memphis fired coach Taylor Jenkins with nine games left in the season. That’s a new one (of course, Denver would do the same thing a week later). Memphis has gone 4-5 under coach Tuomas Iisalo.
Memphis is 3-7 in their last 10 games against the spread. Golden State has played well since the trade for Jimmy Butler (23-7) and was really trying to avoid the play-in. They’re 6-3-1 against the spread down the stretch. Golden State has won the last two meetings.
Grizzlies at Warriors Prediction
Golden State’s game is getting a little out of whack. The Warriors don’t make threes at quite the same level they used to, and they don’t rebound particularly well defensively (offensively, since they shoot so many threes, they have more long rebounds).
That opens the door for Memphis on the boards. The Grizzlies are second in the NBA in rebounds, third in blocks, and shoot the most free throws in the league. This is a bigger game than the one in the East because neither the Magic nor Hawks has a shot against Boston, but the winner here will have a puncher's chance against Houston in the playoffs.
Ja Morant still has the ability to take over the game for Memphis. Is he motivated? You can never tell. When Golden State beat Memphis, it was because they shot well from a three-point range. That’s risky. The more I look at this number, the more I like Memphis, maybe not to win, but at least to cover.
The pick: Memphis +7 (-110 at Caesars)
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