Arsenal vs. PSG prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League semifinal 1st leg

One of the most intriguing UEFA Champions League semifinals of the last decade will commence on Tuesday, with a coveted spot in this year's final on the line.

Premier League side Arsenal, who have managed to brush a litany of seemingly debilitating injuries aside to reach Europe's final four, take on blistering French club Paris Saint-Germain. The first leg is at  Emirates Stadium on Tuesday.

PSG have been one of Europe's most electric sides this season, having confirmed their domestic league title weeks ago and only recently fell just short of an invincible Ligue 1 season. Arsenal have known for months that they would come up short in the Premier League title race behind Liverpool, but they outlasted the Reds in Europe, who were ousted by this very PSG side at the first knockout stage.

The Sporting News looks over the first leg of this mouth-watering matchup as superstars clash with European glory on the line.

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Arsenal vs. PSG prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: PSG (+245 on DraftKings)
• Score prediction: Arsenal 1-3 PSG

This is a classic strength vs. strength matchup and will be an absolute delight for neutrals to enjoy.

PSG possess one of the world's most potent attacks, with Ballon d'Or candidate Ousmane Dembele joined by January signing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia as well as one (or both?) of Bradley Barcola and Desire Doue. The French club counter-press at an elite level, looking to spring turnovers high up the pitch and create dangerous chances at pace.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are one of Europe's most organised sides and thus possess elite defensive abilities both on and off the ball. They are exceedingly counter-press resistant as proven in the win over PSG earlier this season.

However, these two sides are almost unrecognisable from that October league-phase meeting. Arsenal especially are without injured trio Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Gabriel, who all logged minutes in that game, while Jakob Kiwior and Mikel Merino are now regulars in the XI as a result. PSG, meanwhile, were without Dembele who was suspended for disciplinary reasons, and also have Kvaratskhelia in tow as well.

While Arsenal at their best would be a perfect match for PSG, the Gunners are quite simply not at that level currently. Kiwior impressed against Real Madrid, but Los Blancos do not press well — certainly not to PSG's level, at least. Arsenal will have to hold PSG to as few shots as possible to win this game, but that is simply too big of an ask. PSG at such exceptional value is too good to pass up, even at Arsenal's home ground in the first leg.

Arsenal vs. PSG match facts

• Date: Tuesday, April 29, 2025
• Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
• Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
• Referee: Slavko Vincic (SLV)
• Last meeting: Arsenal 2-0 PSG (Oct. 1, 2024 | Champions League)

MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Arsenal vs. PSG

Arsenal vs. PSG best bet

• Pick: Over 2.5 total goals
• Odds: -115 (DraftKings)

If Arsenal want to win this game, they likely want to possess the ball as much as possible in an effort to take the sting out of the match and hold PSG's attack at bay. Problem is, PSG will try to disrupt this possessional approach, and Arteta has been tempted away from a deflating style of possession in Europe regardless (more on that below).

The key here for PSG is to attack Jakub Kiwior, in for the injured Gabriel, as a weak link for Arsenal at the back. The Poland international still has yet to impress on a larger scale, as his success against Real Madrid was as much down to Los Blancos failing to put him under real pressure as it was Kiwior's own positive performance.

If the 25-year-old manages to propel the Gunners into a first-leg lead, and potentially even the Champions League final, he will have officially earned his plaudits and secured either a place in Arsenal's back line long term or a big-money move away. It's more likely, however, that Kiwior crumbles under pressure and PSG take advantage on the scoresheet. With the finishing struggles of the French club seemingly well and truly in the rear-view mirror, we're backing them to put up a solid number off the jump.

Arsenal vs. PSG prop bet

• Pick: PSG 14+ total shots
• Odds: +135 on FanDuel

The odds on this are inexplicably reversed, with Arsenal favoured to take more shots simply down to the fact that the Gunners are at home. It's a wonderful opportunity.

Have Arsenal faced the fewest shots of any Premier League team this season? Yes. Have they translated that style to the Champions League? Not exactly. Of all teams that reached the Champions League knockout round, Arsenal only had the fourth-fewest shots faced per game, with Atalanta, Bayern Munich, and PSG logging lower numbers.

Arteta has altered his style somewhat from league play to Europe and this was on full display against Real Madrid, where the Gunners surprisingly played into Madrid's up-and-down desire, and it worked. While that approach is probably less advisable against a blistering, high-octane attack like PSG's, Arteta may still elect to stick to his guns, resulting in an electric 90 minutes.

PSG should easily manage to eclipse this mark considering they average nearly 20 shots per game in Champions League action this season.