As the 2025 NFL Draft draws ever closer, most football fans have already seen and read countless traditional mock drafts. Just about everyone, from the most informed analysts to casual fans, assumes Cam Ward will be picked No. 1 by the Titans. What happens from pick No. 2 through 10, like many years, is where the question marks come in.
That's also where the real money can be made on the NFL Draft betting market. Whereas Ward sits at -20000 on DraftKings to go No. 1 — an implied probability of 99.5 percent — Travis Hunter is -380 to go No. 2. Two picks later, Will Campbell is just -155 to be selected by the Patriots. That's practically a coin flip.
Still, the odds can often paint a picture that the majority of analysts simply cannot. For these reasons, the Sporting News runs an odds-based NFL mock draft.
The process is simple: let the latest draft odds dictate the order of the top 10 picks called on Draft night. This goes beyond prognostication, whims, panels and aggregate mocks — this shows us what the money says, and which names the bookies are preparing to hear at every turn.
MORE: Updated Sporting News seven-round NFL Mock Draft
Let's take a quick look at the exact order of our top six in the 2024 odds-based NFL Mock Draft, then compare it to the actual draft-night results:
| Pick (Team) | Betting Favorite (Odds) | Actual Pick |
| 1 (Bears) | Caleb Williams (-10000) | Williams |
| 2 (Commanders) | Jayden Daniels (-1000) | Daniels |
| 3 (Patriots) | Drake Maye (-300) | Maye |
| 4 (Cardinals) | Marvin Harrison Jr. (-275) | Harrison |
| 5 (Chargers) | J.J. McCarthy (+300) | Joe Alt |
| 6 (Giants) | Malik Nabers (+160) | Nabers |
As you can see, the odds predicted the first four picks — and five of the first six — with pinpoint accuracy. The only wild card: Jim Harbaugh drafting at No. 5.
Time to check out the updated top 10 projected picks for this year. Here's our NFL Mock Draft based on DraftKings odds, with some brief discussions on what each projected pick means for potential trades, contenders, high-profile quarterbacks, and more.
MORE: Big Board: Top 200 | First-round player comps | Mock Draft with trades
NFL Mock Draft 2025 according to betting odds: Projected top-10 picks
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
1. Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (-20000 to go first overall)
No. 1 picks have become a bit boring over the past few years. The certainty around Ward feels similar to the certainty around Caleb Williams last year. Ward is the best QB in this draft, and Tennessee desperately needs a signal-caller to change the course of the franchise.
Sporting News NFL expert Vinnie Iyer has pondered whether Ward can be the Titans' next Steve McNair, as the QB's "size, arm strength, and mobility have some recalling their late one-time MVP." Iyer even goes as far as suggesting that the ACC Player of the Year has a ceiling mashup of Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes. No wonder the sportsbooks view this as a no-brainer!
MORE: 2025 NFL Mock Draft — Player comp edition
2. Browns: Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado (-800 to go No. 2)
The most skilled player in this draft, Hunter, could go from Deion Sanders' best weapon at Colorado to the next Deion Sanders in the NFL. The Heisman Trophy winner easily ranks as the best cornerback in the class, and he might also be the most talented wide receiver.
There was some speculation Cleveland would select stud pass-rusher Abdul Carter here, and SN's Iyer still thinks Hunter's teammate, QB Shedeur Sanders, might be the pick. However, the sportsbooks seem pretty confident Hunter will be the second name called. He went from -380 at the start of the week to -800 by Tuesday morning.
MORE: Hunter No. 1 on SN Big Board | Best two-way players in NFL history
3. Giants: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State (-600 to go No. 3)
Carter has said that he views football as a game of chess, and he's certainly one heck of a chess master. The Big Ten DPOY and unanimous All-American selection recorded 12 sacks and an FBS-best 24 tackles for loss in his junior year at Penn State, and he will fill a major need for a Giants team that finished 21st in scoring D and 24th in yardage D last season.
This is the last real lock of the draft, as no other top-10 pick yields shorter than -400 odds. Don't expect any big surprises in the top three, but also don't drop a huge sum of money to lock into any of these picks. You would need to bet $300 to make a $50 profit here, so it's not worth the risk of running into a stunning draft-night trade.
MORE NFL DRAFT:
Top 10 QBs | Top 10 RBs | Top 10 WRs | Top 10 TEs | Top 10 Edge rushers
4. Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU (-380 to go No. 4)
Now that Stefon Diggs landed in Foxboro, the No. 1 need in New England is pass-protection for 2024 No. 3 pick Drake Maye. Campbell has been considered the top tackle by most everyone this entire spring, and his odds to go fourth overall shot up this week from -180 to -380, so it seems pretty close to certain he's bound for the rebuilding franchise.
One thing for bettors to consider: a trade-down remains a distinct possibility. It's entirely possible Eliot Wolf acquires two picks for one and still winds up with a top-line tackle like Armand Membou, Josh Simmons or Kelvin Banks Jr. The Pats have multiple positions of need but QB is not one of them, and the tier drop-off from picks 1-3 to 4-10 is substantial for teams not eyeing signal-callers. If the price is right on an offer, Wolf would probably move down with zero hesitation.
MORE: Campbell among the safest picks in the 2025 NFL Draft
5. Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan (+165 to go No. 5)
Elite running back Ashton Jeanty has also popped into this particular pick grouping (+175), and three other sleepers sit shorter than 9-to-1 (LB Jalon Walker, WR Tet McMillan and OT Armand Membou). Makes sense, because the Jaguars ranked bottom-five in scoring and scoring defense last season — they need lots of help!
The best advice we can offer for pick No. 5 is to fade it entirely. Yours truly has some Graham exposure here, but on a wager made over a month ago. You're not getting enough value on a guess.
6. Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State (+100 to go No. 6)
This pick felt like more of a certainty over the past few weeks, when Jeanty at six was as short as -150 on many books. He's now at plus odds to become a Raider, perhaps only lengthening over the past few days because of the looming possibility that Jacksonville takes him at five or someone trades up to four to nab him.
Multiple teams could use the elite running back and Heisman runner-up, including the Bears, Cowboys, Broncos and Steelers. But the Raiders make the short list, too, and GM John Spytek has more than hinted at his affinity for RBs. It just seems perfect for Pete Carroll and Geno Smith to land the most explosive running back in this class. Jeanty could easily become Carroll's modern-day Marshawn Lynch.
MORE: Keep your eyes on these potential draft-day steals
7. Jets: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri (+150 to go No. 7)
New York has moved on from the debacle known as Aaron Rodgers and will now focus its attention on athletic maven and former Bears first-round pick Justin Fields. For Fields to work in the Meadowlands, he will need some protection — something never afforded to him during his time in Chicago. Membou would help bolster a Gang Green line that already has plenty of promise.
Of course, Fields will also need some playmakers outside of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Stud tight end Tyler Warren sits at +700 to go No. 7, and Tet McMillan remains an outside possibility at +2000. However, with Membou and fellow tackle Kelvin Banks (+450) both shorter than 5-to-1, it's hard not to pick the projected best available lineman.
8. Panthers: Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia (+130 to go No. 8)
Carolina ranked dead last in points and yards allowed in 2024, so Dan Morgan will need to shape his defensive unit up or run the risk of being shipped out by always-eager team owner David Tepper.
Defensive lineman Mykel Williams (+400) also stands out as a potential Panther — as does wideout Tet McMillan (+550) — but Walker would go a long way to improving the bones of this dreadful D.
9. Saints: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia (+370 to go No. 9)
This seems like the most wide-open pick of the top 10. DraftKings has a whopping seven players listed at 10-to-1 odds to go ninth overall (as of Apr. 22), including QBs Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart.
The Saints also desperately need to bolster their offensive line. But New Orleans fielded the 30th-ranked defense in 2024, so we tend to agree with DK that Williams or fellow pass-rusher Shemar Stewart (+600) are two of the biggest possibilities to land in the Bayou.
10. Bears: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State (+350 to go No. 10)
Bears 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams took a big step forward in the final months of his rookie season, and he might be able to progress even more with the pass-catching and blocking abilities of a high-ceiling tight end like Warren. Chicago would likely take Jeanty (+425) if he slips, but 10 overall seems a bit early for fellow halfback Omarion Hampton (+1600).
Warren was heavily scouted by GM Ryan Poles and company all spring, including a top-30 visit, and he would immediately slot ahead of oft-struggling veteran Cole Kmet. Since Warren and fellow tight end Colston Loveland (+600) both sit at 6-to-1 odds or shorter, we're happily throwing a small wager on the better of the two to land in the Chi.
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