It’s fantasy semifinals time! If you’re still alive and going strong, congratulations — it’s been a rough year in fantasy, with so many of the top draft picks either getting hurt or underperforming along the way. But you’ve hit enough of your picks to get here and navigated your way through the waiver wire to maximize your chances of winning it all.
Why stop now? With just one week left to go in most leagues, prepare for the championship game now by picking up next week’s streaming options a week early. No need to hold onto players for depth anymore — it’s an all-out sprint to the finish!
Our weekly Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts.
More important, it also aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. We called JK Dobbins, Jauan Jennings, Tucker Kraft, Jerry Jeudy, Jameis Winston, Juwan Johnson, and more before their breakout weeks, and more hits are on the way. Why exhaust your FAAB dollars or waiver priority to claim the next breakout when you can add him now for free?
MORE FROM FTN: Industry-leading fantasy analysis and NFL projections
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Watchlist: Week 17
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 16, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 17. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All these players are below 50 percent ownership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: QB
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (48% ownership in ESPN leagues/49% ownership in Yahoo leagues)
Week 17 opponent: Kansas City (-10% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
With George Pickens hopefully being back for the Christmas Day affair, betting your championship hopes on a successful moonball or three is far from the worst idea in the world. Over the last four weeks, Wilson is fifth in the league with 8.5 yards per pass attempt, and that was a league-best 10.4 in Weeks 12-13 when Pickens was healthy and playing.
A couple of rainbow shots into the end zone could be the difference between first place and runner-up when all is said and done.
(FTN)
Drew Lock, QB, New York Giants (2%/1%)
Week 17 opponent: Indianapolis (-3% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
For the truly desperate, the Giants are the team most likely to have their Week 17 starter freely available on the waiver wire — even Mason Rudolph is trending toward being rostered more than Lock. However, if you’re looking to play matchups, Indianapolis is about as good as you’re going to get.
The Colts have been a more-or-less neutral opponent for fantasy quarterbacks all year long, but an average of 16.5 fantasy points allowed is more than you’re going to find freely available. If you have a Giants stack going already, perhaps counting on a big day from Malik Nabers, doubling down and going with Lock is far from the worst possible call. Maximize your potential score, as it doesn’t matter if you lose by one or 50 if it doesn’t work!
More Quarterback Options:
- Aaron Rodgers (Week 17 opponent: Buffalo)
- Michael Penix (Washington)
- Drake Maye (LA Chargers)
- Bryce Young (Tampa Bay)
WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL ROSTER MANAGEMENT
Lessons Learned | Sleepers | Busts | Usage Report | DFS Values | Start 'Em, Sit 'Em | Weather
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: RB
Alexander Mattison (41%/39%) and Ameer Abdullah (19%/19%), RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Week 17 opponent: New Orleans (+10% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
And so we reach the end of the waiver wire watchlist season in the same place we’ve spent much of the year — trying to solve the Raiders RB Carousel. The rise of Sincere McCormick seemed to have finally solved that issue for us, but his ankle injury on Monday appears to have knocked him out for the rest of the season. So, we’re back to Mattison and Abdullah, trying to divine Las Vegas’ apparent random use of their running back rotation.
The reward for solving this is big, too — the Saints are allowing 19.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, so if you pick the Raider with the lion’s share of the work, you could reap some pretty significant rewards. We maintain that, with everyone healthy and ready to go, Mattison will continue to be the inefficient volume guy and should be your waiver target. Saying that almost guarantees Dylan Laube will get 30 carries next week, but you live by the carousel, you die by the carousel.
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (49%/54%)
Week 17 opponent: New England (+12% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
Edwards is available in a majority of leagues right now because he’s pretty much entirely touchdown-dependent at this point. He simply doesn’t have the volume or efficiency to make him a reliable plug-and-play fantasy starter. But you’re not looking for an everyday starter — you’re looking for someone for Week 17 specifically, and the Patriots have no qualms letting people into the end zone.
They’ve given up 16 touchdowns to running backs this season, tied for fourth-most in the league, and are allowing over 20 points to running backs in non-PPR leagues. The Chargers are the team most likely to have an easy, necessary win in Week 17, so that should lead to a lot of work for Edwards.
More Running Back Options:
- Kendre Miller (Week 17 opponent: Las Vegas)
- Tyler Allgeier (Washington)
- Jaleel McLaughlin (Cincinnati)
WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: WR
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (34%/24%)
Week 17 opponent: Carolina (+0% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
McMillan appears to be getting his sea legs underneath him as he approaches the end of his rookie season. He’s only gone over 50 yards twice this season, but they were in the past two weeks, where he also collected a total of 13 targets and found the end zone three times.
That’s the sort of positive trend you should feel comfortable gambling on, and indeed, he’s seen his rostership skyrocket from single digits into the 20s and 30s after this week’s batch of waiver claims. He’s still hanging around in most leagues, though, and the Panthers’ defense does not provide an intimidating matchup for him.
Cedric Tillman (30%/33%) and Elijah Moore (20%/21%), WR, Cleveland Browns
Week 17 opponent: Miami (-12% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
We’re down to QB3 in Cleveland, as the Jameis Winston rollercoaster has gone into one of its sadly predictable dips — eight interceptions over the last three games will do that. That means Dorian Thompson-Robinson gets the nod from here on out, which probably means a more run-heavy, conservative gameplan for Cleveland. And yet, looking at the wideouts freely available, it’s hard to do much better than Tillman.
Remember, Tillman was regularly in the top 12 at the position in the middle of the year, scoring 18.1 points or more in Weeks 7-9. Maybe he won’t have quite the same volume as he did during that stretch with Winston under center, but a Tillman back from the protocol seems like a solid option. If he’s still not back, Moore works, too. DTR hit Moore for three touchdowns in 2023, so there’s at least some established chemistry there.
More Wide Receiver Options
- Devaughn Vele (Week 17 opponent: Cincinnati)
- Keon Coleman (NY Jets)
- Romeo Doubs (Minnesota)
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: TE
Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (26%/24%)
Week 17 opponent: New England (+9% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
The biggest question mark right now when it comes to Week 17 is Will Dissly’s availability. If he’s healthy, he is startable. We knew that he was going to miss a couple of weeks with his Week 14 shoulder injury. That has cost him the Buccaneers game, and it looks like it will keep him out this week against the Broncos, too.
Well, that would be a couple of weeks, and all eyes are on how Dissly’s shoulder responds the rest of the way. You don’t need bench slots now, though, so you can afford to pick Dissly up and gamble on him being healthy enough to play in the championship game in two weeks.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (49%/68%)
Week 17 opponent: LA Chargers (-17% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
In particularly shallow leagues, Henry may still be sitting out there. He hasn’t exploded in any one week this season, which is why he hasn’t been snatched up everywhere, but he has had a consistently high floor, especially as Drake Maye has continued to develop.
The Patriots are likely to be trailing to Chargers pretty heavily, which would call for more passing, and Henry remains New England’s top target in the passing game. It would be nice if he got a second receiving touchdown at some point, but four or five catches for 40 or 50 yards is not a terrible par to settle for.
More Tight End Options
- Brenton Strange (Week 17 opponent: Tennessee)
- Juwan Johnson (Las Vegas)
- Cole Kmet (Seattle)
- Ja’Tavion Sanders (Tampa Bay)
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: Defense
For Week 16:
Colts vs Titans (Will Levis)
Raiders vs Jaguars (Mac Jones)
Chargers vs Broncos (Bo Nix)
Bengals vs Browns (Dorian Thompson-Robinson)
For Week 17:
Buccaneers vs Panthers (Bryce Young)
Chargers at Patriots (Drake Maye)
Dolphins at Browns (Dorian Thompson-Robinson)
Saints vs Raiders (Aiden O’Connell/Desmond Ridder)
