UEFA Champions League permutations, scenarios: What teams need to qualify for Round of 16, knockout playoffs in 2024/25

Heading into the final matchweek of the new UEFA Champions League format, the table has been flushed out to show where each side stands amongst their peers across the European continent.

Thanks to the new competition format, which features a full league-phase table, teams have a better understanding of how they fit amongst the rest of the field. Yet compared to the old group-stage format, where teams only had to finish above two other clubs in a four-team group, sorting out the qualifying scenarios is a much more daunting prospect in the new model.

Some big clubs like Liverpool and Barcelona have put themselves in a strong qualifying position to this point and are in line to advance with aplomb. Meanwhile, others like Manchester City, Real Madrid, and Paris Saint-Germain found themselves with a surprising amount of doubt as to their knockout-stage prospects at various stages.

MORE: Full Champions League table and standings

Less heralded clubs like Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and Monaco have thrown a wrench in the works with their own strong performances which have left the top sides scratching their heads.

The Sporting News runs through what each prominent team in the competition must do to find themselves into the knockout round, whether it be with a coveted bye to the Round of 16 or a trepidatious playoff matchup to navigate.

How many teams go through to Champions League knockouts in 2024/25?

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season features a knockout qualification format that will be new to fans.

The European competition now utilizes a "Swiss Model" that boasts a league phase with a full 36-team table to replace the old group stage.

Qualification from that is simple: teams that finish in the top eight positions qualify directly to the Round of 16, bypassing the playoff round. Meanwhile, teams in position 11 through 16 will qualify for the knockout-stage playoffs — two-legged matches to determine the final eight sides in the Round of 16 — and are given seeding in that draw. Teams finishing 17-24 in the standings are also through to the playoff round but will be unseeded, and will therefore be drawn against a higher-ranking seeded team.

Finally, teams that finish 25-36 in the table are eliminated from European play outright, with no possibility of dropping down into lower competitions.

MORE: Updated Champions League top goal scorers 2024/25 | All UCL qualification scenarios and permutations

Who has qualified for the Champions League knockout stage?

Heading into the final week of the league phase, table-toppers Liverpool and second-place Barcelona are the only clubs to have mathematically confirmed their place in the Round of 16.

Sitting first on a perfect 18 points from six matches, the Reds will definitely finish in the top eight places in the table regardless of results from here on in. So too for Barcelona, who are the only club with 18 points from their seven games thus far.

There are still six automatic qualifying spots left to be claimed, with nine teams in the running for those positions.

MORE: Up-to-date Champions League standings, table for league phase (use drop-down menu to select UCL)

After matchday seven, there are now 16 other teams who are guaranteed at least a place in the knockout playoffs. Arsenal and Real Madrid are among them thanks to one-sided wins, while Celtic, Juventus, Inter Milan, Aston Villa, AC Milan and Bayern Munich are also in this group.

Defending Europa League champions Atalanta saw themselves confirm a spot in the knockout stage as they pasted Sturm Graz 5-0 in Matchweek 7, as did Atletico Madrid with their last-gasp win over Bayer Leverkusen.

* Locked into listed position

Teams eliminated from the Champions League

RB Leipzig became the first club eliminated from knockout-stage contention when they were beaten 3-2 by Aston Villa in Matchweek 6. They were followed the next day by both Slovan Bratislava and BSC Young Boys, with all three on zero points.

In Matchweek 7, Bologna, Red Star Belgrade, and Sturm Graz were all confirmed to finish below the cut line, as they all suffered Tuesday defeats. Girona, Salzburg, and Sparta Prague all followed. 

UEFA Champions League Round of 16 permutations, scenarios

Liverpool

Remaining fixture: at PSV

Liverpool (21 pts, +13 GD) sealed a Round of 16 bye with a win over Lille in Matchweek 7, and now they have only the top spot in the table left to secure. They lead Barcelona by three points, so just a draw against PSV in their final league phase match would see them finish first.

Barcelona

Remaining fixture: vs. Atalanta

A comical 5-4 victory at Benfica in their penultimate league-phase match saw second-placed Barcelona (18 pts, +15 GD) confirm a Round of 16 spot, and now have very little to play for in their final game at home against Atalanta. They are now only fighting with Liverpool for the top spot in the table, but they can only get there if the Reds drop points in their final match.

Arsenal

Remaining fixture: at Girona

Arsenal (16 pts, +12 GD) confirmed at least a seeded place in the knockout-playoff round and are inches from a Round of 16 place after beating Dinamo Zagreb comfortably in the penultimate match of the league phase. They sit third in the table with a strong point haul and double-digit goal differential, a powerful combo.

At this point, the Gunners would likely back into a Round of 16 bye even with a defeat to Girona, but even just a point would do the business.

Aston Villa

Remaining fixture: vs. Celtic

Aston Villa maintain a very strong position in the Champions League standings, but the defeat to AS Monaco leaves their chances of securing a top-eight spot in severe jeopardy. They now sit ninth in the table (13 pts, +5 GD) after Matchweek 7 concluded, looking in from the outside at the Round of 16 byes.

They are confirmed into the playoff round at least, for now. In all likelihood, they'll need three points against Celtic on the final matchday to snatch a Round of 16 spot and to hope others crumble around them. If they can beat their Scottish opponents by enough of a margin, it could leave them with a goal differential strong enough to earn a bye even if others don't drop points.

Bayern Munich

Remaining fixture: vs. Slovan Bratislava

A thumping win over Shakhtar Donetsk put Bayern Munich (12 pts, +6 GD) briefly into the top eight on 12 points through six games, but defeat in Matchweek 7 to Feyenoord ruined a lot of their hard work. They head into the final day in 15th place, seven spots below the Round of 16 byes.

While Bayern still have a mathematical chance of squeaking into the top eight, they would have to jump a lot of teams to do so. At the very least, Bayern will need to win on the final day against already eliminated Slovan Bratislava at home, which feels quite likely despite recent slips. However, they may need to run up the score to achieve a strong enough goal differential to snag a tiebreaker over those around them.

Dropping points in that finale, as unrealistic as it sounds, would leave them at risk of falling into an unseeded spot in the playoff round.

Real Madrid

Remaining fixture: at Brest

At the end of 2024, Real Madrid (12 pts, +5 GD) faced a code red situation as they once sat in 24th — the final qualifying position — heading into a daunting road match at Atalanta. Yet Los Blancos emerged with a hard-fought win over the Europa League champs, and pummeling RB Salzburg in matchweek 7 moved them into a confirmed knockout playoff spot.

At this point, Madrid could still end up with a Round of 16 bye, as they're theoretically only one point below the top eight, but there are so many teams fighting for those spots that the early deficit leaves them unlikely to get the help they need around them. Three points against Brest on the final matchday would, however, likely be enough to see them into a seeded playoff position.

Paris Saint-Germain

Remaining fixture: at Stuttgart

PSG (10 pts, +2 GD) had been on the outside of the qualifying position for a number of weeks, but a massive come-from-behind win over Man City put the French giants amongst the knockout qualifiers heading into the final matchweek while dropping the Premier League side out. They now sit 22nd, still right on the cusp of the cut line.

There's still a lot of work to do. PSG face another elimination-threatened side in Stuttgart on the final day, and must do so on the road. Three points would guarantee them a spot, but anything less puts them in enormous peril. It's pretty much that simple at this point for PSG, who are finally in control of their own fate.

Man City

Remaining fixture: vs. Club Brugge

Incredibly, Manchester City (8 pts, +2 GD) are OUT of the qualifying positions with just one match to go, thanks to damaging defeats in Turin to Juventus and Paris at PSG. City sit perilously in 25th place, the first elimination position.

They will face another elimination-threatened club in Club Brugge on the final day, and must win if they are to even have a chance to qualify. Thankfully for City, there aren't realistically many clubs in contention for a knockout place on the final day, with at most three more clubs than qualifying places to battle against (but in all likelihood that number is two, with Shakhtar Donetsk barely hanging on).

A win over Club Brugge would see Man City jump the Belgian side in the table, which would be enough to see them through to the playoffs regardless of outside results. Anything less and they are guaranteed to be eliminated, as they are at least two points behind everyone above them in the table.