Benfica vs Inter prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League quarterfinal 1st leg

Kyle Bonn

Benfica vs Inter prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League quarterfinal 1st leg image

Benfica look to continue their surprising charge through the UEFA Champions League as they host a vulnerable Inter side in the first leg of their quarterfinal matchup on Tuesday.

The Portuguese side won Group H by beating Juventus twice and twice holding high-flying PSG to a draw, advancing to emphatically down an upstart Club Brugge side in the Round of 16.

Yet there's still plenty to prove for Benfica, as no Portuguese club has reached the UCL semifinals since Porto's title run in 2004 under Jose Mourinho. Only twice since then has a team from outside a Big Five league reached the semifinals, both accomplished by Dutch clubs.

Inter, meanwhile, have been exceptionally inconsistent all season long. Sitting fifth in the Serie A table, there's no guarantee they'll even qualify for next year's Champions League, but thus far they remain alive in this season's tournament. They got past another Portuguese opponent in Porto in the Round of 16, but recent domestic results see them in a shaky position entering this matchup.

The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 51.8% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 35 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 44 of 80 match outcomes via his three-way moneyline leans to date.

Benfica vs Inter match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, April 11
  • Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Wed, April 12)
  • Location: Estadio Da Luz (Lisbon, Portugal)
  • Official: Michael Oliver (ENG)
  • Last meeting: Inter 4-3 Benfica (Mar. 25, 2004 | UEFA Cup, Round of 16)

Benfica vs Inter prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Benfica (+115)
  • Against the spread (handicap) lean: Benfica -0.5 (+105)
  • Score prediction: Benfica 1-0 Inter

Inter are in the midst of a real poor run of form, and in truth, it's been coming for a while. They were lucky to get past Porto in the Round of 16 as their opponents misfired on multiple occasions, and goalkeeper Andre Onana stood on his head.

In attack, forward Joaquin Correa is in a massive funk, Romelu Lukaku is still not quite himself, and Lautaro Martinez has yet to prove he can carry the team by himself. The defensive unit can be impressive at times, but still prone to catastrophic mental mistakes.

Benfica, on the other hand, are in solid form and have proven they can hang with the best teams in Europe. Defeat to Porto last Friday can be shrugged off, as there was always a letdown to be expected given they lead the domestic table by a fair margin and clearly had one eye on this game midweek.

  Benfica
win
Draw Inter
win
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
2.5 goals
BEN
-0.5
INT
+0.5
BetMGM
(USA)
+115 +230 +250 -110 / -135 +115 / -160 +105 -150
Sports
Interaction

(Canada)
+109 +235 +230 -114 / -137 +119 / -159 +113 -145
SkyBet
(UK)
11/10 9/4 13/5 5/6, 5/6 6/5, 8/13
Neds
(Australia)
2.10 3.20 3.60 1.95 / 1.80 2.25 / 1.60
Dafabet
(India)
2.05 3.28 3.59 1.93 / 1.81 2.20 / 1.67 2.05 1.77

    Benfica vs Inter betting tips

    • Pick: Both teams to score — NO
    • Odds: -130 (BetMGM)

    The game flow odds are clearly juiced towards fewer goals, and rightly so, as these two sides can prove defensive in nature, especially in the first leg of a major European tilt. Even Benfica's 2-1 loss on Friday against rival Porto was, on expected goals, well under that three-goal total mark.

    Sure, a 1-1 draw is conceivable, but given how poor Inter have been at finishing chances, and how stingily Benfica will likely defend their home soil, it's better to run with this option at slightly better odds than to take the under 2.5 goal total at an even uglier -160.

    Benfica vs Inter prop bet

    • Pick: Benfica to win to nil
    • Odds: +225 (BetMGM)

    Not only does everything in this match scream Benfica winning, but there's a good chance they'll do so in dominating fashion.

    Like struggling Premier League side Chelsea, Inter can't seem to hit the broad side of a barn in front of goal. Over their four-match Serie A winless streak, they've accumulated a sizable 10.66 expected goals (xG), but scored just two actual goals, an outlandish discrepancy.

    Yet the struggles aren't only in league play — they were dominated at Porto in the second leg of their Round of 16 series, but came away with a fortunate 0-0 road draw. Benfica are a better side than Porto (despite their recent domestic defeat) so conventional wisdom says this is a sensible play.

    Benfica vs Inter Milan live stream, TV channel

      Date Time TV channel Streaming
    Australia Wed, Apr. 12 05:00 AEST Stan Sport
    Canada Tue, Apr. 11 15:00 ET DAZN
    Hong Kong Wed, Apr. 12 03:00 HKT beIN Xtra beIN Sports Connect
    India Wed, Apr. 12 00:30 IST Sony TEN 1 JioTV, Sony LIV
    Malaysia Wed, Apr. 12 03:00 MYT beIN Xtra beIN Sports Connect
    New Zealand Wed, Apr. 12 07:00 NZST Spark Sport
    Singapore Wed, Apr. 12 03:00 SGT beIN Xtra beIN Sports Connect
    UK Tue, Apr. 11 20:00 BST BT Sport 2 BT Sport site/app
    USA Tue, Apr. 11 15:00 ET Paramount+,
    ViX and ViX+

    UK: The match will be broadcast on BT Sport 2 and streamed on BT Sport platforms.

    USA: This match is available to fans in the USA and can be streamed on Paramount+, which has the English-language stream for subscribers. ViX carries a free Spanish-language stream, and ViX+ has the Spanish-language stream for subscribers.

    Canada: Every Champions League game streams live on DAZN.

    Australia: Every match from the UEFA Champions League streams ad-free on Stan Sport, live and on demand.

    Kyle Bonn

    Kyle Bonn Photo

    Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.