Happy Thanksgiving week! Hopefully, your turkey hasn’t come out burnt and you’ve managed to avoid Uncle Andy’s congealed green bean casserole that you suspect has been hiding in the fridge since last Thanksgiving. But while you and your leaguemates are relaxing and chowing down this week, why not slip out for five minutes to see if you can’t beat them to some of next week’s top waiver-wire pickups? You’ll be thankful you did.
Our weekly Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts.
More important, it also aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. We called JK Dobbins, Jauan Jennings, Tucker Kraft, Jerry Jeudy, Jameis Winston, and more before their breakout weeks, and more hits are on the way. Why exhaust your FAAB dollars or waiver priority to claim the next breakout when you can add him now for free?
MORE FROM FTN: Industry-leading fantasy analysis and NFL projections
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Watchlist: Week 14
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 13, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 14. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All these players are below 50 percent ownership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Week 13 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: QB
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (35% owned in ESPN leagues/46% in Yahoo leagues)
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Rest of season
Wilson has just two more negative matchups for fantasy purposes. Only Philadelphia (Week 15) and Kansas City (Week 17) have allowed below-average DVOA-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so everyone else is ripe for attacking.
That bodes well for last month’s Moonball King. Wilson leads the league over the past three weeks in pass completions on throws of 20-plus air yards and is third in yards on such plays, as he’s perfected the long, arcing pass in the general vicinity of George Pickens. When Wilson hits a couple of those shots in a game, he’s a top-five fantasy quarterback, and the Steelers’ remaining slate doesn’t look capable of stopping him on a regular basis.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets (35%/45%)
Reason: Preemptive streamer
Time Frame: Week 14
With all 32 teams playing in Week 13, there’s little reason to start Rodgers, as there’s surely a better option somewhere out there. But Week 14 is crucial for slipping into the playoffs, as it’s the last week of the regular season in leagues that go to eight teams down the stretch.
There are six teams on bye next week, so there may well be a stampede toward the waiver wire as teams try to temporarily replace Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels. Of the players currently available in more than 50 percent of leagues, we like Rodgers’ matchup against Miami more than most of the alternatives. If you’ve been riding Baltimore or Washington to victory this year, consider grabbing Rodgers before the rush.
More Quarterback Options
- Jameis Winston (positive game scripts, rest of season)
- Trevor Lawrence (opponent schedule, Weeks 14-18)
- Will Levis (opponent schedule, Weeks 13-17)
- Derek Carr (opponent schedule, Weeks 14-15)
WEEK 13 FANTASY ROSTER MANAGEMENT ADVICE
Stock Watch | Start 'Em, Sit 'Em | Sleepers | Busts | Usage Report | Flex Finder | Weather
Week 14 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: RB
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (40%/32%)
Reason: Finally healthy
Time Frame: Rest of season
Bigsby was sidelined by an ankle injury in Week 10 and hasn’t played since. He’s questionable for this week and should be ready to go sooner rather than later. He is, by a pretty substantial margin, the more effective of Jacksonville’s two running backs, with a 5.7% rushing DVOA to Etienne’s -5.1%. He’s also been the one with more of the workload in the running game and has had more than half of Jacksonville’s snaps when healthy since mid-October.
The Jaguars are leaning heavier and heavier on Tank as they’re getting more comfortable with him being the guy. He’d get even more work if they could trust him on passing downs, and while that does limit his PPR value, Bigsby’s explosiveness means he’ll always find work. In addition, the Jaguars aren’t facing the toughest slate of opponents the rest of the way, meaning they’re less likely to be in desperation mode and throwing nonstop. That leaves more opportunities for Bigsby to take the field —and more points for you.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (39%/41%)
Reason: Finally healthy
Time Frame: Rest of season
It seems like Spears just can’t catch a break. He missed last week with a concussion after missing three weeks in the middle of the season with an ankle injury. He just hasn’t been able to stay on the field this season.
Still, Brian Callahan keeps saying how he wants to reduce Tony Pollard’s workload down the stretch, and that would mean more work for Spears when and if he can pass the concussion protocol. We know that Spears can provide fantasy value when given a chance. He’s an excellent receiving valve for a Titans team that is likely to be chasing points the rest of the way. We’ll once again recommend him and hope he can stay healthy for more than five minutes this time.
More Running Back Options
- Alexander Mattison (opponent schedule, Weeks 14-17)
- Tyler Allgeier (injury-upside handcuff, rest of season)
- Gus Edwards (injury replacement, Weeks 13-15)
WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Week 14 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: WR
Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (47%/55%)
Reason: Big-play ability
Time Frame: Rest of season
Tillman is just on the boundary of where we like to recommend waiver wire pickups, but if he’s still available in your league, you should jump on him.
Tillman has produced in the opportunities granted him by Amari Cooper’s departure, going from three receptions for nine yards in the first six weeks of the season to a 26-33-3 line since. He was dropped in a number of leagues this past week as he’s going through concussion protocol, but if you have a roster spot you’re not using, grabbing him now before he’s cleared. It could pay dividends in the playoffs.
More Wide Receiver Options
- Adam Thielen/Xavier Legette (competent QB play, rest of season)
- Keon Coleman (opponent schedule, Weeks 14-18)
- Quentin Johnston (opponent schedule, Weeks 13-15)
Week 14 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: TE
Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks (18%/4%)
Reason: Healthy again
Time Frame: Rest of season
In very deep leagues, where the TE streaming pool is basically non-existent, the return of Fant could provide much-needed relief. Fant has missed the past three games with a groin injury, but he has practiced in full and should be good to go the rest of the way.
Fant’s had three games with 60-plus yards this season, which is tied for seventh-most among tight ends even after missing nearly a month. He’s mostly a streaming option against defenses who can’t cover tight ends, but with games against the Packers and Rams left on Seattle’s slate, those opportunities exist.
More Tight End Options
Will Dissly (opponent schedule, Weeks 13-15)
Hunter Henry (opponent schedule, rest of season)
Zach Ertz (heavy workload, rest of season)
Week 14 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: Defense
For Week 13:
Colts at Patriots (Drake Maye)
Seahawks at Jets (Aaron Rodgers)
Giants at Cowboys (Cooper Rush)
Rams at Saints (Derek Carr)
For Week 14:
Titans vs. Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence)
Saints at Giants (Tommy DeVito/Drew Lock)
Bengals at Cowboys (Cooper Rush)
Jaguars at Titans (Will Levis)
For Week 15:
Cardinals vs Patriots (Drake Maye)
Chargers vs Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield)
Saints vs Commanders (Jayden Daniels)
Bengals at Titans (Will Levis)
