After seeing their Premier League title hopes diminish further on the weekend, Arsenal must now refocus to navigate a difficult road Champions League battle as the Gunners visit Italian giants Inter on Wednesday.
The Gunners dropped points for the fifth time in 10 league games as they fell 1-0 to Newcastle, able to keep all 11 players on the pitch for the 90 minutes but unable to generate much attacking firepower. It saw them fall to fifth in the table, now a whopping seven points behind leaders Liverpool.
They are in a reasonably strong Champions League position with seven points through their first three matches, but European road games have continued to thwart Mikel Arteta over the years, and this is as tough as they come.
Having reached the Champions League final two seasons ago and won the Scudetto last year, Inter are in a period of revival on both the domestic and European stages. They sit just a point off the top of the Serie A standings and are amongst the all-important top eight in the Champions League table as well, having yet to concede a single goal in European play this season.
MORE: How to watch Inter Milan vs. Arsenal in Champions League
Inter Milan vs. Arsenal prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Inter (+160)
- Score prediction: Inter 2-0 Arsenal
To put it plainly, Arsenal have been utterly terrible on the road in European competition under Mikel Arteta.
Since the Spaniard took over in December 2019, Arsenal have won less than half of their road European matches (9 of 19), and eight of their nine victories came in the Europa League. In the Champions League last season and this season combined, they have won just one (at Sevilla last October) of their six road games, losing three and drawing two.
Inter, meanwhile, have yet to concede a goal in three Champions League matches this season, including the heroic performance on the road at Man City. At home in European play, Inter have conceded just six goals in 11 home matches since the start of the 2022/23 season, and five of those came in a 2-0 loss to Bayern to begin the 2022 group stage and a 3-3 draw with Benfica in the quarterfinals with the aggregate win mostly wrapped up. Remove those two games, and it's one goal conceded in their last nine home European matches.
| BetMGM (USA) | |
| Inter Milan win | +170 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Arsenal win | +175 |
| Both teams to score | Y: -130 N: -110 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | O: +105 U: -145 |
| Inter Milan -0.5 goals | +155 |
| Arsenal +0.5 goals | -225 |
Inter Milan vs. Arsenal match facts
- Date: Wednesday, November 6, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
- Referee: Istvan Kovacs (ROM)
- Last meeting: Inter 1-5 Arsenal (Nov. 25, 2003 | Champions League)
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Inter Milan vs. Arsenal best bet
- Pick: Scoreless first half (listed as "1st half result — Draw and under 1.5 total goals")
- Odds: +155 (BetMGM)
Nobody in the Premier League has faced fewer shots in the first half of matches than Arsenal. Nobody in Serie A has faced fewer shots in the first half of matches than Inter.
Against Man City in their scoreless road draw, Inter kept their Premier League opponents under 1.0 xG in the first half, actually out-shooting City 10-9, with just four combined shots on target between the two sides and one combined big chance.
Neither team is going to be thrilled to open up the attack through the first 45 minutes, with Arsenal probably happy to get out of the San Siro with a draw and Inter not wanting to risk falling behind needlessly. Unless there's a fluky goal or a moment of brilliance (which to be fair is certainly possible), this game will reach halftime without an opener.
Inter Milan vs. Arsenal prop bet
- Pick: Marcus Thuram to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +160 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Marcus Thuram 2+ shots on target
- Odds: +290 (FanDuel)
Nobody is due a goal over the last month more than Marcus Thuram. The France international has yet to truly become a consistent threat in front of goal, but he remains a constant influence in the attacking third regardless of whether he puts the ball in the net.
After an explosive start to the season, things have dried up a bit for Thuram, but that can easily be chalked up to simple random variance rather than a sign of a downturn. He came off the bench to score a late winner against Young Boys in their last Champions League match, and he has hit for two or more shots on target in three of his last five Serie A appearances. What's more is that five of his seven league goals and four of five assists have come at the San Siro.
While Lautaro Martinez is the club's main goal threat during league play, he often takes a back seat to other individuals in the Champions League, whether it be by design or by performance. Marco Arnautovic started the Young Boys match up front in place of Thuram, but that proved to be a big mistake as he was putrid from open play and missed a penalty, so expect Thuram to get back in the XI here.
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