NFL picks, predictions for Week 9: Lions take down Packers, Cowboys upset Falcons

Bill Bender

NFL picks, predictions for Week 9: Lions take down Packers, Cowboys upset Falcons image

The Detroit Lions have a chance to extend their winning streak at Lambeau Field to three games on Sunday. 

That might not seem like a big deal until you consider just how much Lions coach Dan Campbell has flipped the narrative in that NFC rivalry. Remember, Green Bay won 24 straight home games against Detroit from 1992-2014. 

Green Bay controlled that rivalry before Campbell's arrival. Detroit is 4-2 head-to-head against the Packers in the Campbell era, and that included a 34-20 victory at Lambeau Field in 2023. Green Bay returned the favor on Thanksgiving in a 29-22 upset, and the seeds for a re-heated rivalry on both sides are there between NFC contenders. 

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As for Week 9, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love (groin) will be an interesting story leading up to the game. Will he sit out knowing Green Bay has an upcoming bye week, or will the Packers take their best shot at the NFC favorite? 

For what it's worth, the Lions haven't won three in a row at Lambeau Field since 1986-88, but those were battles between losing teams. This one is for control of the NFC at the midpoint. 

Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season: 

  • Straight up: 86-37 (11-5 in Week 8)
  • Against the spread: 70-48-5 (8-8 in Week 8) 

Here are our picks for Week 9: 

MORE: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings | Week 9 NFL picks against the spread

NFL picks, predictions for Week 9

  • Houston Texans at New York Jets (-1)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime

The Jets are on Thursday Night Football for the second time this year, and it's desperation time after five straight losses. Why are they favored here? C.J. Stroud's road split — 727 yards, six TDs, three INTs in four games — isn't great, but it's not enough to ignore who the better team is to this point. The Texans have allowed more than 200 passing yards in one game this season. 

Pick: Texans 24, Jets 17

MORE JETS: Aaron Rodgers says Jets must embrace 'the darkness'

MORE TEXANS: Stefon Diggs injury update

  • Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The Cowboys are one-dimensional with a league-worst rushing attack that averages 74.1 yards per game. That is putting so much pressure on Dak Prescott. This is a natural get-well spot for Dallas, but that inability to run on the road will only lead to problems against the Falcons. Atlanta is 2-3 S/U at home, and Kirk Cousins has an 86.0 passer rating with all seven of his interceptions in those games. Still, this is a popular upset pick this week, and we are going to begrudgingly take the bait.  

Pick: Cowboys 34, Falcons 31

MORE COWBOYS: Why key 49ers TD wasn't ruled offensive pass interference | Trevon Diggs confronts reporter after loss

MORE FALCONS: Kirk Cousins proving Falcons made NFL's best offseason move

  • Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The Bills have found a groove. James Cook is coming off a 111-yard, two-TD performance, and he had three total TDs in the first meeting against Miami. Josh Allen threw his first interception of the season last week, but the Bills lead the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin. Including the postseason, the Dolphins have lost the past eight meetings in Buffalo. Tua Tagovailoa had an encouraging return in Week 8, but they cannot afford to play without the lead here. 

Pick: Bills 31, Dolphins 21 

MORE: Tua Tagovailoa draws praise for sliding on QB scramble

  • Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The Bengals' season is in a dangerous spot, so why are they favored by more than a touchdown? Joe Burrow, who has a 111.5 passer rating with nine TDs and two interceptions at home, will finally lead Cincinnati to their first home victory of the season if the Raiders cannot generate a running game early. Las Vegas ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing offense. That never works on the road. It's worth noting the Raiders are 3-0 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more this season. This is not an easy spread to cover. 

Pick: Bengals 34, Raiders 24

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  • Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Cleveland Browns 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Jim Harbaugh is back in Ohio, where he is not the most popular person. The Browns played inspired against the Ravens, offering a fitting tribute to the late Jim Donovan, and they could create some momentum around Jameis Winston with back-to-back victories. Don't count on it. Los Angeles has just two turnovers this season. Justin Herbert will take a few sacks, but he'll make enough plays to pull out a victory. The Chargers have won the past four meetings in the series, including two games in Cleveland. 

Pick: Chargers 19, Browns 16

MORE: Comparing Browns offense with Jameis Winston vs. Deshaun Watson | Jameis channels Eminem in interview

  • New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The Titans are favored despite being the lone one-win team in the AFC, and they just committed four more turnovers in the blowout loss to Detroit in Week 8. There are only so many shake-ups that can be made. New England might turn back to Jacoby Brissett, who replaced Drake Maye (concussion) in Week 8. Brissett takes too many sacks, but he has thrown just one interception this season. This is a toss-up between bad offenses. 

Pick: Patriots 21, Titans 20 

MORE: Drake Maye injury update

  • Washington Commanders (-3.5) at New York Giants 

Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

Jayden Daniels is coming off a miraculous Hail Mary against Chicago, one that masked the fact the offense settled for field goals all game. Daniels still had eight carries for 52 yards, and the Giants' offensive struggles have continued through three weeks. One team looks like a playoff team. The other is close to making another franchise transition. Washington can get a season sweep of their NFC East rival for the first time since 2021. 

Pick: Commanders 24, Giants 20

MORE: Jayden Daniels Hail Mary reactions | Daniels outduels Caleb Williams | Daniels impresses in post-game interview

  • New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The Saints should get a lift if Derek Carr (oblique) returns from injury for a road matchup against the Panthers. New Orleans might be fine either way. The Panthers are 1-7 ATS this season, and they have lost three home games by an average of 17 points per game. Bryce Young needs more support in the running game, and the Saints have been bad there. 

Pick: Saints 23, Panthers 16

  • Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Denver has won five of six with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, and the Ravens are coming off a surprising loss at Cleveland. This is a veteran coaching matchup between John Harbaugh and Sean Payton. The Broncos rank seventh in the NFL in run defense (106.4 yards per game), and Nix is active in the running game on offense. Baltimore bounces back here, but Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will have to take care of the football. 

Pick: Ravens 28, Broncos 20 

  • Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

The Jaguars lost another heart-breaker in Week 8 against Green Bay, and the road trip to Philadelphia could be bad news for former Eagles coach Doug Pederson. The Eagles have won three in a row since the bye week with a defense that has allowed just 12 points per game in that stretch. Saquon Barkley has 331 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry. The Eagles failed to cover in their past two games, but that changes here. 

Pick: Eagles 33, Jaguars 18

MORE: Christian Kirk injury update

  • Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (Pick 'em) 

Sunday, 4:05  p.m., CBS

Granted, it took a Hail Mary finish last week, but Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams has yet to win a road start. He is 0-3 with a 58.4 percent completion percentage, two TDs, and four interceptions. The Cardinals are looking for a third straight victory. Kyler Murray is 2-2 with a 66 percent completion percentage, six TDs, and two interceptions at home. That connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. is improving with each week. 

Pick: Cardinals 20, Bears 17 

MORE: Caleb Williams struggles in duel with Daniels | Tyrique Stevenson apologizes for mistakes during Hail Mary

  • Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1) 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox 

The Rams are a different team with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field. Matthew Stafford had his best game of the season in Week 8, and the Seahawks have lost four of five. Seattle has allowed an average of 167.6 rushing yards in that stretch. If Sean McVay has a running game to work on the road, then the Rams will win for the fourth time in five seasons at Seattle. 

Pick: Rams 28, Seahawks 26

MORE RAMS: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp quiet trade rumors in win vs. Vikings

MORE SEAHAWKS: Seahawks defensive players fight on sideline

  • Detroit Lions (-4.5) at Green Bay Packers 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox 

Will Love (groin) play? That would take some shine off this marquee NFC North battle even if Malik Willis has played well in Love's place. The Packers lead the NFL in takeaways (19), and the Lions (15) are tied for second. Green Bay needs to force turnovers on Jared Goff, who hasn't thrown an interception in his past four games. Detroit wins at Lambeau Field for the third consecutive season. 

Pick: Lions 31, Packers 26

MORE: Jordan Love injury update

  • Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) 

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock 

Are the Vikings in a free-fall after a 5-0 start? That is an over-exaggeration. The Colts are 1-3 S/U on the road this season, and Anthony Richardson has a 40.9-percent completion rate with five turnovers in two road starts. Look for Minnesota to bounce back here when the connection between Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson is restored. Jefferson has scored TDs in three of four home games. 

Pick: Vikings 27, Colts 19 

MORE VIKINGS: How refs missed blatant facemask penalty on Rams' game-sealing safety vs. Vikings

MORE COLTS: Shane Steichen indicates Colts sticking with Richardson | Richardson checks himself out because of fatigue

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) 

Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN

The Chiefs continue to grind out victories despite injuries, but the Buccaneers are doing the same with Baker Mayfield, who had 330 passing yards, three TDs, and two interceptions despite losing receivers Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) to injuries. Tampa Bay is in full desperation mode here, but the Chiefs have a top-five defense. Look for Patrick Mahomes to get back on track with his best game of the season against the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL. Tampa Bay is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this season. 

Pick: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 23

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Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.