UEFA Champions League permutations, scenarios: What teams need to qualify for Round of 16, knockouts in 2024/25

Now into matchweek seven of the new UEFA Champions League format, the table has been flushed out to show where each side stands amongst their peers across the European continent.

Thanks to the new competition format, which features a full league-phase table, teams have a better understanding of how they fit amongst the rest of the field. Yet compared to the old group-stage format, where teams only had to finish above two other clubs in a four-team group, sorting out the qualifying scenarios is a much more daunting prospect in the new model.

Some big clubs like Liverpool and Barcelona have put themselves in a strong qualifying position to this point and are in line to advance with aplomb. Meanwhile, others like Manchester City, Real Madrid, and Paris Saint-Germain find themselves with a surprising amount of doubt as to their knockout-stage prospects.

MORE: Full Champions League table and standings

Less heralded clubs like Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and Monaco have thrown a wrench in the works with their own strong performances which have left the top sides scratching their heads.

The Sporting News runs through what each prominent team in the competition must do to find themselves into the knockout round, whether it be with a coveted bye to the Round of 16 or a trepidatious playoff matchup to navigate.

How many teams go through to Champions League knockouts in 2024/25?

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season features a knockout qualification format that will be new to fans.

The European competition now utilizes a "Swiss Model" that boasts a league phase with a full 36-team table to replace the old group stage.

Qualification from that is simple: teams that finish in the top eight positions qualify directly to the Round of 16, bypassing the playoff round. Meanwhile, teams in position 11 through 16 will qualify for the knockout-stage playoffs — two-legged matches to determine the final eight sides in the Round of 16 — and are given seeding in that draw. Teams finishing 17-24 in the standings are also through to the playoff round but will be unseeded, and will therefore be drawn against a higher-ranking seeded team.

Finally, teams that finish 25-36 in the table are eliminated from European play outright, with no possibility of dropping down into lower competitions.

MORE: Updated Champions League top goal scorers 2024/25 | All UCL qualification scenarios and permutations

Who has qualified for the Champions League knockout stage?

With Matchweek 7 still yet to conclude, table-toppers Liverpool and second-place Barcelona are the only clubs to have mathematically confirmed their place in at least the knockout-round playoffs via the league phase table.

Sitting first on a perfect 18 points from six matches, the Reds will definitely finish in the top 24 places in the table regardless of results from here on in. So too for Barcelona, who are the only club with 15 points from their six games thus far.

MORE: Up-to-date Champions League standings, table for league phase (use drop-down menu to select UCL)

Teams qualified for the Champions League knockout stage

Liverpool were the first club to have mathematically secured at least a knockout playoff spot, and with a perfect seven-from-seven record have cemented themselves into the Round of 16 with one of the eight byes. They were followed shortly after by Barcelona whose utterly insane 5-4 win at Benfica saw them into the same position.

Defending Europa League champions Atalanta saw themselves confirm a spot in the knockout stage as they pasted Sturm Graz 5-0 in Matchweek 7.

*Guaranteed at least a top 16 (seeded playoff) spot
** Guaranteed at least a top 24 (unseeded playoff) spot

Teams eliminated from the Champions League

RB Leipzig became the first club eliminated from knockout-stage contention when they were beaten 3-2 by Aston Villa in Matchweek 6. They were followed the next day by both Slovan Bratislava and BSC Young Boys, with all three on zero points.

In Matchweek 7, Bologna, Red Star Belgrade, and Sturm Graz were all confirmed to finish below the cut line, as they all suffered Tuesday defeats.

UEFA Champions League Round of 16 permutations, scenarios

• TO CONFIRM ROUND OF SPOT 16 IN MATCHWEEK 7: Clubs must finish the matchweek 4 points clear of 9th place.
• TO CONFIRM KNOCKOUT-PLAYOFF SPOT IN MATCHWEEK 7: Clubs must finish the matchweek 4 points clear of 25th place.

Liverpool

Remaining fixtures: at PSV

Liverpool (21 pts, +13 GD) sealed a Round of 16 bye with a win over Lille in Matchweek 7, and now they have only the top spot in the table left to secure. They lead Barcelona by three points, so just a draw against PSV in their final league phase match would see them finish first.

Barcelona

Remaining fixtures: vs. Atalanta

A comical 5-4 victory at Benfica in their penultimate league phase match saw second-placed Barcelona (18 pts, +15 GD) confirm a Round of 16 spot, and now have very little to play for in their final game at home against Atalanta. They are now only fighting with Liverpool for the top spot in the table, but can only get there if the Reds drop points in their final match.

Arsenal

Remaining fixtures: vs. Dinamo Zagreb, at Girona

A win over Monaco in mid-December vaulted Arsenal (13 pts, +9 GD) all the way up to third in the UCL standings to begin Matchweek 7, and the Tuesday results saw the Gunners end up confirming a place in the knockout stage without having even taken the field.

At this point, the Gunners are playing for a top-eight spot, and the margins are razor-thin. If they win their Matchweek 7 game against, they'll finish the matchweek in third and have an inside track to a Round of 16 bye.

Aston Villa

Remaining fixture: vs. Celtic

Aston Villa maintain a very strong position in the Champions League standings, but the defeat to AS Monaco leaves their chances of securing a top eight spot in severe jeopardy. At full-time, the loss dropped them to seventh in the table (13 pts, +5 GD), but that standing is likely to suffer further as games go final and teams around them claim points on the table.

The defeat also saw the chance to mathematically secure a place in the knockout stage go by, although that's not really in doubt. It's still possible for them to be locked into at least the playoff round by the time Matchweek 7 is concluded.

Bayern Munich

Remaining fixtures: at Feyenoord, vs. Slovan Bratislava

A thumping win over Shakhtar Donetsk put Bayern Munich (12 pts, +9 GD) briefly into the top eight on 12 points through six games, and while that would not last (they dropped to 10th after the following day's results), they still stand in a solid position.

The final two games are now about a move towards a Round of 16 bye for Vincent Kompany, which will be a tight battle. Amidst a crowded top of the table, Bayern know their place in the top eight will come down to nothing short of wins over Feyenoord and Slovan Bratislava. Take care of business, and the rest will likely fall into place around them, but anything less than six points would leave them at risk of ending up with a nervy playoff matchup.

Real Madrid

Remaining fixtures: vs. RB Salzburg, at Brest

It was a code-red situation for Real Madrid (9 pts, +1 GD), who sat in 24th — the final qualifying position — heading into a daunting road match at Atalanta. Yet Los Blancos emerged with a hard-fought win, easing the pressure slightly as they climbed, for now, to 20th.

Unlike Man City, Madrid have a soft finish to the schedule, which gives them a good chance of qualifying at least for the playoffs, especially now with those big three points in hand. Even a Round of 16 bye, or at least a seeded spot in the playoffs, isn't so farfetched. Can they really make such a run, even given their long injury list and spotty form?

Man City

Remaining fixtures: at PSG, vs. Club Brugge

Pep Guardiola's side have endured an historic slump, which has affected their Champions League position as well as their league standing. After yet another damaging defeat in Turin, City are now amongst the giants with the most alarm bells ringing. With eight points through six matches leaving Man City (8 pts, +4 GD) sit 22nd in the table, it will be a true fight to the finish.

The biggest problem now is their remaining schedule, with games against two clubs also in the midst of a life-or-death fight against elimination, leaving a miasma of desperation lingering in the air for both those games. Confirmation of a place in the playoffs, or shock elimination, will probably be left to the very end.

Paris Saint-Germain

Remaining fixtures: vs. Man City, at Stuttgart

Of all the big clubs in the Champions League, PSG (7 pts, +0 GD) faced the most perilous situation heading into Matchweek 6, and while they emerged with an emphatic 3-0 victory over RB Salzburg, they were exasperated to have made zero progress. Through six games, a measly seven points leaves the French side still occupying 25th position, the first elimination spot.

Games against Man City and Stuttgart remain, and points are almost certainly needed from both to feel truly comfortable about avoiding the boot. Their struggles are a stark reminder that while the new Champions League format is meant to increase the room for error at a big club's disposal, it does not leave the giants infallible.

The first match against Man City very well could feel like an elimination game, which is pretty wild to think about.