Hyped as one of the Premier League's top title contenders before the season, Arsenal suddenly find themselves in a very precarious position just eight matches into the campaign as they host Liverpool on Sunday.
The Gunners have faced significant adversity through the start of the Premier League season, sitting fifth on 17 points thanks to a Premier League leading three red cards that led to a number of adverse results. That will play a role here today too as William Saliba is suspended after being the latest victim for last man foul in the recent defeat to Aston Villa.
Now suddenly bereft of any more margin for error and in desperate need of a winning streak to climb back amongst the table's top group, they're set to face a surprisingly stout Liverpool side flying in the early days under new manager Arne Slot.
The Reds sit second in the league table on 21 points, but are in control of the standings as they are just two points behind leaders Man City and can retake the top spot with a win here on the road.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Arsenal (+140)
- Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Liverpool
This match will test the storylines of the season's first few months on both sides of the ball. Arsenal have played like title contenders when able to keep 11 men on the field, but have put themselves in precarious positions that resulted in dropped points. Liverpool have looked as good as their table position, but have enjoyed a very soft schedule to begin the campaign.
Which narrative stays true and which falls flat remains to be seen, but there are signs that both have at least some merit. The Gunners have statistically been one of the best teams in the league, and Liverpool have still been good against the few quality opponents they've faced so far.
Arsenal should manage to keep a lid on their opponents' attack while finding a way through at some point, so long as they can keep all 11 men on the pitch for the full 90 minutes.
| BetMGM (USA) | |
| Arsenal win | +140 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Liverpool win | +188 |
| Both teams to score | Y: -155 N: +110 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | O: -130 U: -110 |
| Arsenal -0.5 goals | +130 |
| Liverpool +0.5 goals | -190 |
Arsenal vs. Liverpool match facts
- Date: Sunday, October 27, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 4:30 p.m. local (12:30 p.m. ET / 9:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
- Referee: Anthony Taylor, VAR: Michael Salisbury.
- Last meeting: Arsenal 3-1 Liverpool (Feb. 4, 2024 | Premier League)
Arsenal vs. Liverpool best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
Liverpool are third in the Premier League this season in expected goals, but have not finished quite at the same rate, holding a slightly negative differential between xG and actual goals scored. Against Arsenal, who have conceded the fifth-fewest expected goals against despite playing significant minutes down a man, they'll find that missing chances will prove extra costly.
The Reds have, however, been incredibly efficient at the back, conceding just three goals thus far on 6.16 xGA, both lowest in the Premier League by a significant margin. Sure, some of that can be chalked up to their soft schedule, but they even held prolific Chelsea to a single goal on 0.99 xG, a laudable achievement.
Between the improved Liverpool defensive shape and traditionally stout Arsenal back line (even in the absence of Saliba), this could be a cagey affair, especially while the creative Martin Odegaard remains sidelined.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool prop bet
- Pick: Luis Diaz 3+ total shots
- Odds: +190 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Luis Diaz 1+ shots on target
- Odds: -105 (FanDuel)
One of Liverpool's most prolific attackers this season has been Luis Diaz, having scored five goals through the first eight matches of the campaign thus far.
In his early Liverpool career, Diaz was more of a creative force than a goal scorer, picking his spots to shoot on frame. This season under Arne Slot, he's been somewhat unleashed, averaging 3.25 shots per 90 minutes, up from 2.44 in 2022/23 and just over 3 last season.
He also has eight shots in the last three games against Arsenal, so he should be a factor here even if finding truly quality chances will be a difficult task.
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